00:00We mentioned earlier before about how the Asian markets are deeply dependent on the oil for importing.
00:06And it's not just deeply dependent, it's like 98%.
00:08So it's pretty much what happens in the oil market directly impacts their economy.
00:16If you look at, as you mentioned in your report, how Japan and South Korea specifically have fallen today.
00:24And since the war started, Japan is down sort of nearly 11% on its stock market.
00:30And South Korea is even more about 18%.
00:33And I think that's only going to increase as the straights stay closed and that there's no sort of viable
00:39option happening at the moment.
00:42And I thought it was interesting.
00:43There was a Reuters report done just a few days ago where they looked at sort of 13 different analysts
00:49and asked them for their predictions.
00:51And sort of as evidence to show that people are, it's hard to nail down.
00:56Again, the estimates ranged from everything all the way up to 190, but averaged at about 135.
01:03But I think, as you pointed out today, it's already up past 110.
01:07So I think even 135 is massively optimistic.
01:12And then when you put it into sort of that into context, we've already mentioned that the markets are going
01:18down, the Wall Street, Europe, as well.
01:21Sort of Morgan Stanley estimated that if it goes up to around 150 to 180, and I think the lower
01:28end, 150 is now looking a lot more possible.
01:31They estimate that global equity valuations on listed companies would shrink by about 25%.
01:38And I think the Asian markets, as we just said before, who are highly dependent on oil from the Gulf
01:46region, they're then likely to be the most impacted.
01:49And they're already doing, as we discussed earlier, like lots of benefits on their energy markets to try and reduce
01:57it for customers.
01:59But a lot of the companies that are being impacted already are sort of in the chip industry, which, you
02:04know, the region is well known for, which will then have ramifications down the line in terms of everyone's AI
02:11and data center plans.
02:15And so it all has a massive spillover effect, even though I always think it's quite interesting.
02:21You know, we repeatedly said that the Straits of Hormuz are responsible for 20%.
02:26So you kind of think, where's the other 80%?
02:28But unfortunately, the world doesn't work that quickly where you can just ramp up production for other countries.
02:36And you mentioned OPEC in that regard as well, that there's a meeting coming from OPEC Plus, which includes Russia
02:43as well.
02:44And that's happening on Sunday.
02:46And Reuters had an interesting report out earlier saying that they're going to increase production.
02:51But then the question is, that's all well and good if you're going to produce more.
02:55But then if you can't get it out of the region quickly enough, then it doesn't really, really matter if
03:01you're going to produce more oil.
03:04If it's just sitting there, not going to customers.
03:08But yeah, it's definitely going to impact sort of the US in terms of the pumps, but it's Asia that
03:15is going to be critically important because they depend so much on getting the oil from this region.
Comments