00:00French President Emmanuel Macron will deliver his New Year's address to the army at the East Air Base in the south of the country.
00:07The event will be overshadowed by the President's announcement on Wednesday that French forces would join Denmark and other European countries for military exercises in Greenland in the face of Donald Trump's threats to take the autonomous territory.
00:20Ukraine and the country's military budget will also be on the agenda and Macron is expected to outline the orientation for France's defense strategy.
00:28The President is also summoning a meeting of the Defense Council for this morning.
00:34And for more on this, I can welcome Alexandre Vautravert, who is Editor-in-Chief of Revue Militaire Suisse.
00:40Good morning, Alexandre, and thank you for joining us.
00:44France is going to take part in these NATO exercises in Greenland alongside Danish, Swedish and German forces.
00:51This is all rather unprecedented, given that there have been threats by another NATO member.
00:56How seriously is France taking these U.S. threats?
01:00I think it's taking the threat very seriously.
01:04And I think the risk to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is extremely high.
01:11And despite traditional, let's say, constructive criticism from France towards the organization,
01:17everybody understands that NATO is extremely important for France's security.
01:22Now, clearly, these exercises and France's participation in them are intended to tell Washington that Denmark has no intention of meekly doing Trump's bidding.
01:34Now, if Donald Trump were to go ahead with an invasion, would Europe actually meet it with a military response?
01:43Well, definitely, the military presence that we are talking about today is a form of deterrence.
01:51It's a form of reassurance, much in the same way that multinational NATO standing forces are present today on the eastern flank of NATO.
02:04So it's to reassure these countries.
02:06So I think there's nothing abnormal about this.
02:09However, the way that the dialogue, the debate is being framed is a bit strange to me,
02:16considering that the United States of America already has bases and already has forces in the region and in Greenland.
02:24Now, moving on to Emmanuel Macron's address to the French armies today,
02:28what do you expect to come out of that particular speech?
02:32It will be an extremely, how can I say, acrobatic discourse,
02:40because Emmanuel Macron is actually fighting three different battles at three different levels in this exercise.
02:49He's fighting a national political battle.
02:52It's the question of the future presidential elections.
02:56It's fighting a European-wide battle.
03:00It is a struggle for leadership over defense policy and leadership within the European Union.
03:09Traditionally, France and the UK have been the steam engines of European defense and security.
03:16This is no longer the case.
03:18And Germany has expressed ambitions in this regard.
03:21And thirdly, of course, it is aimed also at a number of competitors worldwide.
03:30Russia is one of them.
03:31But also the question, the whole problematic of security in Southeast Asia is a theme.
03:38And the relations with the United States as a partner and as a competitor will also need to be addressed.
03:44So it's a very difficult exercise.
03:47Now, we are being told that Emmanuel Macron is expected to speak on a reorientation of France's defense strategy.
03:55What do you think that might entail?
03:56Until now, France has had, how can I say, a schizophrenic approach to defense.
04:04On one side, there is a defense, a territorial defense of Europe.
04:10This problem was essentially solved through alliances, through partnerships and, of course, through nuclear deterrence.
04:18And so this has been pretty much a plan B, a contingency plan.
04:24And the main efforts have been traditionally, with regards to France, in expeditionary forces.
04:30This is where most of the strengths of the French military lay today.
04:37Today, we need to reassess this.
04:40And many of the plans, the dimension of the forces, also the type of equipment available to the forces, are more geared towards this expeditionary nature,
04:51which allows today French forces to reach Greenland.
04:57But there is very little in the wake of conventional territorial defense.
05:02Now, the Danish Prime Minister, Mette Friedrichsen, has said that were Donald Trump to invade Greenland, that would be the end of NATO.
05:15Now, we are all hoping that that doesn't come to pass.
05:18But are NATO's European members preparing for a possibility of a time after NATO?
05:29Definitely, there have been many questions.
05:31And I think the debate is not new.
05:35In the 1990s, at the time of the 50th anniversary of NATO, you know, this always comes up at the time of a jubilee, of an anniversary.
05:45There were many, many discussions.
05:47What do we do in a post-Cold War context environment?
05:52We need to reinvent NATO.
05:54I think we are probably at such a crossroads today.
05:57So, the disappearance of NATO, I cannot really imagine.
06:02But the realignment and the shifting of priorities, definitely there are discussions that are taking place.
06:09And this is also an opportunity with regards to the European Union and a number of regional security organizations.
06:16A number of countries of European countries have already signed a number of agreements to, for example, Scandinavian countries, Visigad countries.
06:27France has a number of agreements with Mediterranean countries.
06:32So, there are many different options that are on the table.
06:37And we are in a very, how can I say, unbalanced situation today.
06:43There's many discussions going on.
06:45Thank you very much for that.
06:46Alexandre Votravert, Editor-in-Chief of Review Militaire Suisse.
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