00:00.
00:10But first, the French president Emmanuel Macron is gearing up.
00:15to host the Prime Ministers of Denmark and Greenland for Lanchati Elize Palace.
00:20The gathering comes in the wake of recent tensions with the United States over Donald Trump.
00:25Trump's insistence on taking control of the Autonomous Territory for national security purposes.
00:30Now, after a meeting last week in Davos with NATO Secretary-General Donald Trump...
00:35...signaled a compromise had been found over Greenland.
00:38However, details remain...
00:40For more on this story, we can bring in Ian Lesser, Senior Director...
00:45...for Foreign and Security Policy at the German Marshall Fund.
00:48Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us on the...
00:50...programme today.
00:51What do you think Emmanuel Macron is trying to prove with this meeting?
00:55I think the meeting has a number of purposes.
00:57First, as you know, as you suggested...
01:00First of all, to understand what might be the nature of this framework agreement that was worked out...
01:05...on the margins of Davos, it's really unclear what this might imply in terms of security.
01:10...or in terms of American rights to invest in Greenland, just to simply...
01:15...understand what that's all about.
01:16I'm sure that President Macron will be interested in that part...
01:20...of it, but then more fundamentally, it's an opportunity for all sides to demonstrate...
01:25...a sense of political solidarity around this issue, which touches on...
01:30...European sovereignty very closely.
01:32So, you know, I think it's a combination of...
01:35...symbolism and a good bit of practicality too, probably.
01:38The NATO Secretary...
01:40Secretary General Mark Rutter, the man handpicked to negotiate this.
01:43I mean, he's...
01:45He's NATO Secretary General, but how can he negotiate for Denmark or Greenland?
01:50I think that reflects a couple of things.
01:53First of all, what seems to be...
01:55...a good working relationship, relatively good working relationship...
01:58...between Secretary General Rutter...
02:00...and President Trump, which can go a long way.
02:03But also, a lot of this really is about security.
02:05Or at least that's what President Trump says.
02:07And when it comes to security in the Arctic...
02:10...NATO obviously is a potentially extremely important actor.
02:13So, if the U.S. is looking for more...
02:15...reassurance on the security side...
02:17...the Secretary General of NATO is the person to offer it.
02:20In the aftermath of that meeting with Donald Trump, we had NATO Secretary General...
02:25...who sort of started parroting Washington's lines saying that Greenland was...
02:30...needed for national security purposes and to fend off the Chinese and the Russians...
02:35...but it seems that there are some splits emerging within the NATO alliance itself...
02:39...because just a couple of...
02:40...a couple of days ago we had Mark Rutter...
02:41...who told the Europeans...
02:42...if you think you can defend yourself without the United States...
02:44...keep...
02:45...dreaming...
02:46...to which the French responded that he represents...
02:50...32 NATO allies not just one...
02:52...so it seems that there are some divisions over...
02:55...how NATO approaches Donald Trump's Greenland emissions.
03:00I think on the question of increased security in the Arctic they're probably...
03:05...isn't much debate...
03:06...and in fact there's a lot of scope for the United States...
03:08...and also NATO to do much more...
03:09...there are no...
03:10...really restrictions on that if the United States wants to do more...
03:13...to build additional bases.
03:15...to have additional deployments there.
03:17There's nothing to stop that.
03:18And I think that would be well accepted.
03:20...also for NATO to do more.
03:22Where it gets more controversial of course...
03:24...is the question...
03:25...of whether Europe can defend itself without the United States...
03:27...if the United States...
03:28...in a broader sense...
03:29...is not...
03:30...is no longer a predictable ally.
03:31That's a very dramatic sort of awakening.
03:35...in Europe.
03:36And the sense of risk from that is not equally shared around...
03:40...the alliance.
03:41And I think that's sort of what you hear reflected...
03:43...in the Secretary General's comments.
03:45The United States...
03:46...you know...
03:47...provides things that Europe will not be able to replace.
03:50...for many years to come...
03:51...even if it spends more...
03:53...and does more.
03:54In the run up...
03:55...to Davos...
03:56...Denmark organized military drills in Greenland.
03:59France was one of...
04:00...one of the European countries...
04:01...that sent troops to take part...
04:03...in those exercises.
04:04Donald...
04:05...Trump viewed that...
04:06...as some sort of provocation...
04:07...in the aftermath of those exercises he threatened to...
04:10...to hit France with tariffs.
04:12Now those tariffs are off the table.
04:14How will he...
04:15...view this meeting in Paris today?
04:19I don't think this is likely...
04:20...to raise many hackles.
04:21And I think frankly...
04:22...that deployment...
04:23...and the way it was received in Washington...
04:25...had a good bit of misunderstanding in it.
04:27I think it was intended...
04:28...not to deter the United States.
04:30...except in...
04:31...perhaps in a political sense of...
04:32...suggesting that...
04:33...yes indeed...
04:34...America...
04:35...European allies...
04:36...are capable of doing much more...
04:37...and will do more...
04:38...to defend Greenland...
04:39...and defend the...
04:40...the Arctic.
04:41And so...
04:42...you know...
04:43...you don't need to be quite so aggressive...
04:44...and assertive...
04:45...President Trump.
04:46That was the...
04:45...message that was intended.
04:46I think how it was read in Washington was...
04:48...was simply not on the same page.
04:50...with you...
04:51...as to the future of Greenland...
04:52...and we're demonstrating it.
04:54So...
04:55...you know...
04:56...I think a lot of this has cooled off.
04:57I think the president...
04:58...has a lot of other challenges on his plate.
05:00...there may be more coming this week...
05:02...and we're getting close to midterm elections...
05:04...in the United States.
05:05...and I think a lot of leaders in Europe...
05:08...hope that that will...
05:09...have a tendency to cool off.
05:10...the Greenland crisis...
05:11...with the next months.
05:12Within the European framework...
05:13...there also seem to be splits on...
05:15...and how...
05:16...you know...
05:17...for Europe to do more on its own.
05:19Emmanuel Macron...
05:20...has been championing this...
05:21...for quite some time...
05:22...even when it comes to buying...
05:23...European weaponry...
05:25...I read somewhere that France...
05:26...is not going to be taking part...
05:27...in buying American weapons...
05:28...to send to Ukraine.
05:29So...
05:30...that too is going to run...
05:32...counter to what Donald Trump wants.
05:35...I think Donald Trump...
05:37...has actually been keen...
05:38...to portray the...
05:40...new defense spending commitments...
05:41...in Europe...
05:42...is something of a political victory...
05:43...and I think leaders...
05:45...in Europe are happy...
05:46...to hand him that actually...
05:47...to an extent it is...
05:48...it's not a new story...
05:49...and I think...
05:50...the burden sharing...
05:51...as it's called...
05:52...issue is in some ways...
05:53...really priced into...
05:54...the relationship at the...
05:55...the moment...
05:56...but the question of...
05:57...if Europe is going to spend more...
05:58...and do more...
05:59...will it buy American...
06:00...in the future...
06:00...this is likely to be...
06:01...very controversial...
06:02...in Washington...
06:03...and the mood in Europe...
06:04...at the moment...
06:05...is getting much...
06:05...tougher around these issues...
06:06...it's getting much more serious...
06:07...you know...
06:08...above all...
06:09...I think Europe...
06:10...wants...
06:10...predictability...
06:11...from the United States...
06:12...on defense...
06:13...on trade...
06:14...that's in short...
06:15...apply at the moment...
06:16...indeed...
06:17...Iain Lester...
06:18...thank you very much...
06:19...for joining us...
06:20...on the program...
06:20...and today...
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