00:00Washington, let's broaden our analysis and bring into the program, Sophie Arts, who's program officer at the German Marshall Fund's Geostrategy North team.
00:09Sophie, thanks for joining us here in France 24. Looking forward to hearing what you think.
00:14We heard that from the foreign minister of Denmark, Lars Lach-Rasmussen.
00:18He said no Chinese warship has been near Greenland for over a decade, according to Danish intelligence.
00:23So in the wake of that and off the back of what our correspondent was just saying, is there a Russian-Chinese threat to Greenland or is this just part of Trump's rhetoric?
00:35Thank you so much for having me.
00:38So I definitely want to emphasize that there is geostrategic competition in the Arctic and that that has been heating up and Russian and Chinese interests in a broader Arctic have been heating up.
00:51And we've been seeing more Chinese and Russian cooperation, but not specifically very much as the foreign minister emphasized outside the shores of Greenland.
01:01And there's no specific Russian or Chinese territorial threat or imminent land grab that we're seeing there.
01:11But I think it's important to differentiate.
01:13Of course, Greenland plays a very important role when it comes to U.S. and North American continental defense.
01:21And that's why the U.S. has its space base there, the P2Fix space base.
01:27And that space base is very important when it comes to situational awareness, seeing incoming threats, potential missiles that would be coming from Russia, for instance.
01:38So there is a potential continental threat that's been there for a very long time.
01:43There's increased interest from China and increased activity from China, primarily scientific and commercial, but also some military and dual use activities, especially with Russia.
01:57But no imminent threat as we're seeing it to Greenland.
02:01Sophie, thank you for giving us that nuance on the situation, because we hear the rhetoric as it comes from the White House about the story.
02:09And that kind of paints a picture which perhaps is slightly misleading for many of us.
02:13And what you've done is you've really been very precise and showed what that threat is.
02:17So with that in mind, is there enough in place already with security cooperation between Denmark, Greenland and the United States?
02:26Is there enough in place to actually ensure that safety?
02:31Yeah, absolutely.
02:33Yeah, it would be my position that all of that can be achieved under the current arrangement.
02:38Although I think it's important and positive to think more about potential threats in the future.
02:44And so from that perspective, I think this joint working group at a high level that was just announced could provide a good opportunity to think about that.
02:54And it could also be a very positive development to see more NATO activity around Greenland, which the foreign minister of Denmark had emphasized has been something that Denmark has proposed before and that previously the U.S. was a bit opposed to.
03:09But that would be a positive development if we were to see more of that, especially as we're seeing potentially in the future more activity in the undersea domain.
03:20NATO has a lot of expertise and experience looking for undersea threats.
03:25Of course, we've seen a lot of that activity in the in the Baltic Sea and in the in the North Sea and high north.
03:30So that would be a great capacity for NATO to play in in Greenland.
03:37So we'll have to see how that evolves.
03:39So more NATO involvement.
03:41Obviously, Denmark stepping up to enforce its role already.
03:46There are military cooperation projects already happening.
03:49We heard from the foreign minister of Greenland, Vivian Motzfeld, that her side wants to strengthen cooperation with the U.S., but not be owned by the United States.
04:00Do you think Donald Trump will hear that?
04:05Well, I think I think the Greenlanders have been incredibly clear and the Danes have been incredibly clear and they've been very united in their position.
04:14And I think what we've been seeing, especially in the aftermath of some of the threats and the more coercive diplomacy coming from the Trump administration, is that we've seen more unity, more unity within Greenland, where all parties very clearly agree that they do not want to be owned by the United States.
04:34We're seeing unity with Denmark and unity across the kingdom of Denmark.
04:39And then we're also seeing the saw the prime minister of Greenland earlier this week emphasize that if they had to choose between the United States and Denmark at this time, that they would choose Denmark and they would choose NATO and they would even choose the EU, which they're not currently part of.
04:59And so I think I think they're holding strong to their position.
05:05And I think what came out of the meeting today is is that they're looking to move forward on constructive dialogue with the United States, but being very clear when it comes to their red lines.
05:19And those are the continuation of the current arrangement and Denmark's sovereignty, as well as, of course, Greenland's sovereignty.
05:30It's terribly difficult for all the NATO allies and for the EU as well, because nobody wants to offend Donald Trump because of America's strength all round.
05:39But nonetheless, is what Trump is doing presenting an existential threat for NATO?
05:43I wouldn't say it's an existential threat for NATO.
05:51I mean, I think there's been been a lot of pushback against the idea that the United States could take Greenland by force and very rigorous opposition to that from all European NATO allies.
06:07Canada pushing back against this idea and really emphasizing that that very idea of a NATO ally attacking a NATO ally would be the end of NATO.
06:16But I think NATO has shown incredible agility and capability to to rise from a rise with with new innovative formats from from situations that it has been presented with over recent years.
06:33Most importantly, of course, Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine.
06:37And I think NATO has shown that it can demonstrate its strength in these in these difficult situations and having having a role for NATO potentially in the future in the North American Arctic and advancement or expansion of their situational awareness mission,
06:56as mentioned earlier in Greenland, to look out for threats, I think would be a positive development and would be an opportunity to transform that that challenging rhetoric into actually a stronger and potentially in the long term, more unified NATO.
07:16Sophie Arts, thank you very much for sharing your analysis with us here on France 24.
07:19We really appreciate it.
07:20Sophie Arts, Program Officer at the German Marshall Fund's Geostrategy North team.
07:24Thanks again for being with us.
07:26You know, you're very welcome to and we're watching, of course, for all developments on the situation with Greenland.
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