00:00Well, to get more insight on this, we can speak now to Professor of European Foreign
00:04and Defence Policy and author of This is Not a New World Order, which looks at European
00:08geopolitics, Mr. Sven Abisko. Thanks for your time. Looking as that NATO summit gets under
00:14ways, we're seeing most member states agree to that increase in defence spending, hoping
00:20that it will prompt the US to increase its commitment, if you like, to protecting them.
00:25But the latest we're hearing from Trump is that that isn't going to play out.
00:30Indeed, it confirms his earlier statements that he is not as committed to defend all
00:37allies in all scenarios. And to me, it means that we must urgently reconfigure NATO. Of
00:43course, it's very much in our interest to maintain the alliance. But even within NATO, we should
00:48have two pillars, in my view, the United States and then Europe. And we should build military
00:53autonomy within the alliance so that our armed forces are no longer dependent on the United
00:58States to be operationally effective. How do you envisage seeing that, basically,
01:05Europe forming its own NATO within NATO? What would that mean? And how do you see cooperation
01:12within European member states? Because we have the EU and they've talked about having their
01:16own, you know, army and coordinating there. But the coordination and the unity is often what
01:21Scopper has planned.
01:24Nobody is talking about setting up some sort of armed force under the EU flag. But within
01:29NATO, one could reconfigure the defence posture. And what NATO now tries to do is build one integrated
01:35set of forces, Americans and Europeans combined. But the US have been quite explicit that we may
01:40no longer rely on their conventional forces. So basically, all the Europeans together should
01:47invest in the so-called strategic enablers that now we don't have, that only the US brings
01:51to the table. Think satellites, strategic communications, headquarters, air defence, our own offensive missiles,
01:59so that all the Europeans together have a complete set of forces that remains fully interoperable with the United States, but is no longer dependent on the United States.
02:07in order to deter and defend Europe. And I would say the EU's role is to facilitate this through its defence industrial policies.
02:18But you do think that European countries as a whole need to increase their defence spending or is it more a case of how they spend it?
02:25It's a combination. We do need more defence spending and probably 3.5%, which is the level that we were at during the Cold War, will be necessary.
02:34But we must urgently take some of that initial spending and spend it collectively. Otherwise, we will never have those big-ticket strategic enablers that until now only the United States provides.
02:47And why do we need to spend more? Is it because of the threat of Russia? Has that grown substantially? Is that why we need to pour more money into military matters?
02:55Certainly, Russia has become a lot more aggressive. I mean, Europe remains one of the safest places on earth, on the condition that we invest sufficient in our deterrence and defence.
03:08And it is now clear that we may not always count on the United States to beef up our deterrence.
03:15So the urgency is there because Trump has made it clear that, you know, he has his own view of Article 5 and is actually talking directly with Vladimir Putin, seeking to normalise relations with Russia without really consulting Europe.
03:30So that explains why suddenly it has become urgent to make sure that ultimately Europeans can defend themselves.
03:39How big a task do you think it will be for European nations to change their mentality when it comes to their defence structure?
03:47I mean, since the end of World War Two, they have seen the United States as their protector.
03:51Will it be an easy shift or how do you see that playing out?
03:56No, exactly not. And the subservient message by the NATO Secretary General shows you this traditional mindset of bowing to Washington.
04:06But I think it will not work. You see how everybody signs up, not just to 3.5%, but to 5% in the hope of appeasing Trump.
04:14But in my view, it will not work because Trump is Trump and he will get his 5% today and tomorrow he will have forgotten about it and he will find another reason to be unhappy with Europe.
04:25And don't forget, you know, Trump fundamentally doesn't care about NATO.
04:28I think what he cares about is the EU because he's against it.
04:32He sees the EU as an economic and political rival. So getting 5% at the NATO summit will not stop him from waging an economic war against the EU or from interfering in European domestic politics to the benefit of the extreme right.
04:47Now, you say Europe is still one of the safest places in the world, but we are getting messages from Brussels saying, you know, we need to have this emergency kit for 72 hours.
04:56We're hearing that Germany is reopening bunkers, that they are expecting a potential attack within the coming years.
05:02To what extent are we in danger? To what extent are things, you know, looming towards a global war?
05:09It is obvious that if and when the war in Ukraine comes to an end, Russia will rebuild its forces.
05:18It's a logical thing for them to do. And so it will take them a couple of years to be back at the level where they were before the invaded Ukraine.
05:25But that doesn't mean that there is an imminent threat of Russian invasion.
05:30But again, on the condition that we send the message that Europeans, whatever the position of the US is, are able also to defend themselves and are willing to fight.
05:43That means that we need to beef up our forces again, but also beef up our political unity.
05:50Indeed. And when you look at recent events, I mean, the bombings of Iran, once again, based on accusations of them having so much enriched uranium.
06:00I mean, where does this leave things when it comes to those international laws around warfare?
06:05Of course, no, I have no sympathy whatsoever for the Iranian regime.
06:11And it is clear that the development of a nuclear weapon by Iran is illegal.
06:15But that, of course, does not make it legal to launch a preemptive military attack on them, which we have seen is actually not capable of totally destroying the nuclear program anyway.
06:27So I think Trump's strategy of making a deal with Iran, well, he broke the deal, of course, during his first term.
06:34Now he's trying to make a new nuclear deal.
06:36I think Netanyahu, by launching his surprise attack, tried to thwart that strategy.
06:41The US then joined in and now is back to the realization that actually you need a deal with Iran if you ever want to stabilize the region.
06:50OK, Mr. Sven Biskop, we'll have to leave it there.
06:53But thanks so much for your time and bringing us your expertise on the situation, your insight into it all.
