00:00Let's run between the lines a little and bring in for analysis Dr. H.A. Hellier, Senior Fellow in Geopolitics
00:05at the Royal United Services Institute, joining us from London.
00:09Dr. Hellier, as always, welcome to France 24. It's a pleasure to have you on board.
00:14You're free to be as frank as you need to be, because I know you have extremely strong feelings as
00:19well as very strong analysis of this situation.
00:22Netanyahu there with Trump, both really playing their cards close to their chest after this, talking in terms that don't
00:28really address any of the issues that we want to know about, i.e. what is going to happen to
00:33Iran, what is going to happen to the Gaza Strip.
00:35Can you try and throw some light on the situation for us?
00:39Well, thank you very much for having me. Always a pleasure to be on your show.
00:43I think that the timing of this trip is very telling.
00:47I think that Netanyahu really rushed to Washington because he's concerned by reports that Trump wants to make a deal.
00:55Other information I've received indicates that the vice president, also J.D. Vance, is also keen to make a deal.
01:01But there are obviously other types of voices within the wider MAGA universe looking to take a strike on Iran
01:09and really bring it to its knees.
01:11This goes against the wishes of most of the political leaderships in the region who don't harbor good feelings towards
01:21Iran.
01:22I think they're very cynical about the regime.
01:24I think they're very worried about the regime, particularly given its record in places like Syria, in Yemen, in Lebanon,
01:31in Iraq.
01:32But they're concerned about what this means for the stability of the region and also reprisal attacks by the Iranian
01:39regime if they were to be struck.
01:41I think there's also the issue of the Gaza Strip.
01:44I don't think that that's something that is very high on Netanyahu's agenda in terms of moving the process forward.
01:53I do think that the Trump administration is looking to make some sort of progress.
01:57The question is, is what the Trump administration will do vis-a-vis the Israelis if they don't move forward?
02:04And so far, what we've seen is certain types of rhetoric, especially on Gaza, but also most particularly on the
02:10West Bank,
02:11where the Israelis have all but annexed the West Bank in all but name over not just recent weeks, but
02:18months and arguably years.
02:20So I think that we have to wait and see what actions will be joined to this rhetoric from the
02:26Trump administration.
02:27On that issue of the West Bank, Dr. Helia, the Israelis, the Knesset, changing the law regarding purchase of land,
02:34which means basically anybody who wants to settle from the Israeli side can go into any part of the West
02:39Bank and buy and build.
02:41That, of course, is all about breaking down any possibility of creating a Palestinian state there.
02:47Donald Trump supposedly was against this happening.
02:50Can we imagine a conversation between the two men today on this issue?
02:55It might have been a conversation, but the conversation is really quite moot,
03:00unless there's actually a willingness to use the leverage that the United States has over the Israelis in order to
03:06push them back on this particular issue.
03:09And I don't see that willingness.
03:10I think that there's a huge amount of leverage that exists.
03:14There are many policy options that the American president could use in order to push the Israelis back.
03:20But I don't think there's a willingness there.
03:22And I think that Netanyahu knows that.
03:24So in terms of what happens in the West Bank, it will probably continue.
03:29And, of course, Palestinians will continue to be pushed off their land.
03:33In terms of the Gaza Strip, Dr. Helia, phase two is what people are talking about.
03:38Israel saying that Hamas doesn't want to disarm.
03:40There are a number of issues, of course, spinning around this one.
03:42But all the time, Palestinian civilians are being killed, some 600 since the truce was called in October.
03:50Indeed, it's an interesting ceasefire when an average of five to six Palestinians are killed every day.
03:56You can only imagine the outrage that there would be if these numbers were reversed,
04:00if it were Israelis being killed in their dozens by the week, and hundreds, really.
04:06But the situation is very clear.
04:09The Israelis don't wish to have the Gaza Strip reconstructed.
04:14The Rafaf crossing has now been opened for two-way traffic, but at a particular ratio,
04:21where for every one Palestinian that's allowed to enter, three Palestinians are to leave.
04:26So the issue here is whether or not the Trump administration, again, is going to use this leverage
04:31to push the Israelis to move forward into phase two, into reconstruction.
04:37They're hinging everything on the disarmament of Hamas.
04:41And, frankly, the Europeans are playing the same game,
04:44where the European Union recently said that reconstruction is linked to disarmament,
04:50which is effectively a collective punishment on the people of Gaza.
04:54When it comes to disarmament, Hamas is a prescribed terrorist organization.
04:59It's not a positive force.
05:02But having said that, if it were to disarm, it would probably be the subject of massive attacks
05:08by not only the Israelis, but by militias and gangs that the Israelis are arming in Gaza.
05:15So I don't see that the group is going to disarm,
05:19unless there's some sort of political horizon that allows for a Palestinian state.
05:23And they've made it very clear they'll hand over their arms to a Palestinian force,
05:28but they're not going to just sort of say, yeah, sure,
05:32we'll allow for ourselves to be wiped out the moment that we're disarmed.
05:36And all the time, Dr. Helia, the Palestinian civilians caught in the middle.
05:4020,000 children, we're told, need urgent medical treatment.
05:44Clearly some are getting through, but a lot of them are not.
05:47There are adults who need medical treatment too.
05:49These are the real victims of what is happening right now.
05:54So Israel is in the dock at the International Court of Justice on genocide charges.
06:00At the ICC, Benjamin Netanyahu is accused of serious war crimes.
06:05The Gaza Strip is an occupied territory in international law,
06:09and as said by the overwhelming majority of the international community.
06:14And the occupying power is the state of Israel.
06:17The occupying power is bound by international law to provide for the welfare of those that it occupies.
06:24And hitherto, the Israelis have really been falling short of all of their duties in that regard.
06:31Dr. Echiheli, we need to leave it there, but thank you for shedding light on what is a really complicated
06:37scenario.
06:37And of course, many people suffering in spite of all the words that are washing around regarding all the areas
06:43we've spoken about.
06:44Still people down on the ground worried about their futures, their lives,
06:47and whether they're going to get from one day to the next.
06:50Dr. Echiheli, a senior fellow in geopolitics at the Royal United Services Institute in London.
06:55Thank you, sir, for joining us.
06:57We continue to watch, of course, for all developments on the situation across the Middle East.
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