00:00Hi, Joel Sherman in Orlando. Winter meetings have begun. I'm going to do three things. Not a lot of news on Sunday. It's Monday morning when I'm talking to you.
00:12Number one, I'm going to tell you two things that actually have been repeated to me in the last 48 hours that always come up at the winter meetings and I kind of like them because I think they help set your mind in the right place.
00:27The first one is there's no such thing as a deal as close. A deal is either done or it isn't. I bring that up because there is some anticipation here that the Kyle Schwarber market will finalize, that Schwarber will sign and he's such a key piece in this marketplace because he's a domino.
00:46If he signs, more teams are talking to Schwarber than perhaps any other player in the sport. And therefore, teams have to know I'm not getting Kyle Schwarber before they do Pete Alonso, Cody Bellinger, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, Jorge Polanco.
01:03You fill in the next guy you want in the marketplace. But you always have to be cautious because close isn't a deal. We might stay for these three, four days in Orlando and not get it done, which leads to something else to remember.
01:18It's another thing I like. An executive said to me, you never hear what the second place offer was. And what he means is everyone has a belief that they've read the marketplace well.
01:31Oh, that's a player who's going to fall into a three or four year bucket at about 20, 22 million a year. And then we get surprised because he gets five years or two years. And we never find out what second place is.
01:46And the point was, you know, like already like Dylan Cease probably got a little more, someone who has signed the biggest free agent so far, got a little more than I think was anticipated.
01:55And there is always frenzy at this time of year. And there's expectation of what players are going to get. But all it takes is one team to say, that's not our market. Our market is we want the player and we're going to extend beyond that.
02:09And I bring that up because for two and three, I'm going to, of three things today, two, let's, let's start with the Mets. There's an expectation of that. This is again, a tough market for Pete Alonso.
02:24And that even coming off of a strong season where he was second in the majors and homers and top 10 and second in the majors and RBI and top 10 and homers and OPS and really high in doubles.
02:39Like he had a very strong season that because he's a right hand hitter, right hand thrower, now literally turned 31 yesterday on Sunday.
02:47Uh, he's in his thirties, uh, limited value defensively, almost no value as a base runner, probably negative value as a base runner that he's going to have a hard time getting his market.
03:00Remember, uh, Mike Puma, the post said that he wants at least seven years. I mean, nobody I talked to is talking seven. Nobody's talking six. Nobody's talking five.
03:10Some people are talking that it's going to be tough for him to get four, but it doesn't matter if that's the industry.
03:16And everyone finishes second, third, fourth. If there's a team out there that values Pete Alonso at five years or six years, then that will change the marketplace and he'll likely sign there.
03:29Uh, so it's something to keep an eye on because the Mets have some interest in Kyle Schwarber.
03:35If that market is moving quick and they're reading the Alonso market, it would be tough to have both of those guys and Juan Soto at a time where you're talking about run prevention.
03:45So if Schwarber is moving quickly and the Mets want to get on that train, they have to have a full understanding of where they think Alonso is going.
03:53If that is actually their priority or is Schwarber their priority because Schwarber not only gives left-hand bat, uh, you know, arguably a better bat than Alonso, but there's a clubhouse value at a time where the Mets want to fix their clubhouse also.
04:09And they might not get either guy. And then what do they do as the pivot there?
04:14So it's just something to remember. Like there's a perception of an Alonso market, but what's the Alonso market?
04:21Well, which leads us to number three, which is Cody Bellinger and the Yankees. Um, there's a perception of his market that because there's volatility in his performance, uh, if you go on to like baseball reference and look at his, uh, wins above replacement numbers, there's real kind of like peaks and valleys, peaks and valleys, peaks and valleys.
04:42And I went and looked the player who looks kind of like the most like that, who just completed their age 29 season, like Bellinger to me was Jacoby Ellsbury also like a center fielder.
04:54Actually, you could argue had less, uh, positional value, uh, had more speed, less power than Bellinger. And he ended up at seven years at 153 million with the Yankees.
05:05And I think that shocked the industry 10 plus years ago when, when the Yankees did that. So the question is, there's people who are saying, because of the, the fluctuating nature of Bellinger's performance, it's going to be hard for him to get his market, but it only takes one team to say, wait a second.
05:23He plays left field, center field, right field. He's particularly a strong defender in the corners. He's could play first base. He's a good defender there. He has, he's a good hitter. He could hit for some power, though it played up at Yankee stadium and might be tougher in some other ballparks. He could hit left on left. He could hit in the clutch. He's played in Los Angeles, Chicago, New York, you know, marketplace isn't going to affect him.
05:45So what's it matter? What the general perception is? If somebody overvalues that, what happens? And I think that there is a feeling among the agent community that the Yankees are either playing tight with money this off season or playing coy right now, which is they'd like to see some stuff happen and know definitively what the marketplace is before they jump in to deal with their stuff, which is another bat.
06:11Interestingly, Brian Cashman talked about the fact that they're very left-handed. So what they already mentally may be moving on from Bellinger to get to the right hand hitting guy in the, in a marketplace.
06:23So they want another bat. They probably need a versatile bat who's right-handed. Somebody who plays like a first and third, short and third, maybe some outfield. They, somebody who moves around a little, another starter, even if it's a, it's a hybrid guy to help them get through April during the Rodon and
06:41call rehab period. And to restock the depth of the bullpen with at least one, if not two or more guys there. And so the question is, how much funds do they have to do that? Brian Cashman has suggested he'll be able to do what he needs to put a good team on the field, a high-end contender, and his track record in the red for the regular season is to be able to do that.
07:05But what is the true marketplace of Cody Bellinger? What is the true marketplace of Pete Alonso? That is going to really matter for the industry kind of writ large, but specifically for the New York teams.
07:19But remember, as we do this, there's no close in a deal. There's only done deal or not done deal. And we have not got a big one yet at the winter meetings as I spoke very early morning Monday. And it doesn't matter who finishes in second place. It only matters what the team that wants the player most is willing to pay. So the perception of the market and what a market at and what the final number is, is all that really matters.
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