00:00And now we can head back to cover Vladimir Putin's visit to India, for which we're joined by Subir Sinha,
00:06director of the SOAS South Asia Institute and Reader in Development Studies. Thanks for speaking to France24.
00:16So, Narendra Modi has just said that the world needs peace, but that relations with Russia should reach new heights.
00:26Does this really mean a solution for peace in Ukraine?
00:33No, in short, because there was a time, I would say about a year or so ago, that Mr Modi had offered himself as a mediator.
00:45And I think he had thought his relations with Trump and with Putin personally would somehow be useful in trying to solve this problem.
00:55But I don't really see, after having so openly embraced Putin, and this is Putin's first visit to India after the attack on Ukraine,
01:05and having made very public show of defiance to other important parties, such as the US and the Europeans,
01:13what sort of role he is going to be able to play in that.
01:16So what is the difference between this visit now and the annual summits that still have been going on since the war?
01:25It's actually very much an optical scenario in terms of the fact that Modi, I think, feels isolated internationally.
01:34Just last week, there was a very strong letter written by three European nations condemning him for his plans to receive Putin.
01:43Obviously, Trump has spared no chance to humiliate him time and again with statements which have not gone down well with Mr Modi or with the Indian media or with Mr Modi's supporters.
01:57Having said that, and as you say, these are annual meetings, there are three or four things which are significant about it.
02:04India has a massive trade deficit of $64 billion with the US, with the Russians.
02:12The Indian economy on the surface appears to be doing well, but it has major problems with respect to a shrinking export market in many respects.
02:22And that has knock-on effects on things like employment.
02:25So if the trade talks basically go ahead, then that obviously has a degree of significance.
02:32If you also sort of take a look at the talk about the military angle, India is obviously a massive market for military hardware from around the world.
02:42And further talks on jets, fighter jets, missiles, all of those things, is something that would go down well with Putin.
02:51It sort of allows Putin to say, listen, you know, we are basically not as isolated as the West would like us to do.
02:58And it would allow Modi to posture around the question of sovereign autonomy and being able to have a foreign policy, you know, independent of the relation with the US.
03:10Because remember, until fairly recently, the entire cornerstone of Indian foreign policy under Modi was to have good relations with not just the US, but personally with the American president.
03:23So I think it sort of further underlines the personalization of international relations under Modi.
03:31And as you can see, some of the more cliched elements of the state visit are very much on display.
03:38Interesting point there.
03:39With these US sanctions, though, on Russia and these tariffs which have been increased on India, Modi is surely running a risk here of, you know,
03:50susciting the ire of Donald Trump, who we know has a short temper at some points.
03:55Definitely running a risk.
03:57But I think it's a calculated risk in the sense that despite the, you know, tariffs, Indian exports overall have not necessarily declined.
04:06If you look at Indian mobile telephones and so on, they still are selling quite a lot of those things, you know, to the US.
04:14The tariffs have, I think that the defiance is a very important element here in the sense that Modi's entire domestic political image rests on the acceptance of the story about him being a very strong leader who sets global narratives.
04:35And the fact that he has been able to defy Trump for as long as he has, it's going to go down well, paradoxically,
04:45even though it might have bad economic, you know, outcomes in the medium, in the medium run.
04:51I don't think that the Indians feel that the Trump tariffs by themselves are going to harm the Indian economy.
05:02Because if you take a look at exports to the US, sorry, to Europe, France, particularly trade relations with the UK,
05:10countries in Europe, despite the slap on the wrist once in a while, seem fairly keen to entertain Mr. Modi and to pursue trade deals with India.
05:23There is no chance, I don't think, that France would, for example, stop trying to hawk its military hardware to the Indians.
05:30And, of course, as far as QS timer here is concerned in the UK.
05:35I'm really sorry, but I'm going to have to interrupt you there, Dr. Subir Sinah.
05:38But thank you so much for all of your insights here on France 24.
Be the first to comment