00:00We're going to talk more about this now with political expert Anastasia Shapochenko, who joins me live.
00:05Anastasia, thanks for taking the time to speak to us. Where do we stand now as you see it? Are things swinging back in Ukraine's favor?
00:12Definitely. The latest version of the plan is much better than the first Russia-US version, which is pretty much a recap of the Russian ultimatum of December 2021, before Russia entered Ukraine and would absolutely limit Ukraine's capacity to defend itself.
00:33Ukraine has already been subject to such treatment by Russia throughout their long history of coexistence and that always has ended in entire subjugation of the nation.
00:43So this was unacceptable. What happened over the weekend in Geneva is that European negotiators were involved in the negotiating together with Ukraine, with the U.S.
00:54And also, from what we understand, the U.S. internal position is not entirely homogenous.
01:01So the people who were negotiating on behalf of the U.S. delegation, led by Marco Rubio, they have had the results were more reachable with them than with the people who were sent to negotiate,
01:15so to say, with the Russians, like Vytkov, the special representative, who eventually came out with a reddit of Russian position.
01:28So the improvement is not only in the number of troops, but also in the, especially in the place of the security guarantees for Ukraine,
01:38in the potential place for the coalition of the willing on Ukrainian territory, in not closing the door to eventual Ukrainian membership in NATO, et cetera, et cetera.
01:49So there are several conditions which are better.
01:53But what we're seeing and what we can face soon is catch 22, firstly.
01:59The same as we have seen during the Normandy negotiations in 2014-15, when Russia would not accept the seizing of hostilities and a real ceasefire before the next steps were taken,
02:16which is exactly what this new version is purporting.
02:22And also, what is most important about this new version, this is the version developed by Ukrainians, Europeans, really influenced by them,
02:31and so that amends a lot the Russian version of events.
02:34But the key remains, Russia has to accept it.
02:37And is Russia ready to really negotiate?
02:40And does it really need the ceasefire or a settlement as badly as Ukraine right now?
02:45Indeed. And the other question is, is does this give enough to Ukraine?
02:49Ukraine, Kiev finding itself caught between, on a tightrope, so to speak, caught between having to show gratitude for U.S. support,
02:57showing alarm over that initial draft deal that it said was heavily tilted toward Moscow.
03:02Now it seems a little bit better, but perhaps not 100 percent where Ukraine wants it.
03:06And what's Zelensky's best move at this point?
03:10Zelensky's important objective, I think, in this process is to keep the U.S. on board, not to be abandoned by the U.S.
03:19This is also the stake for the Europeans, to make sure that the U.S. stays in the negotiation, that it doesn't walk out of the room,
03:26and that it doesn't just pull the plug.
03:27Because, of course, the negotiation can continue as long as the U.S. negotiates,
03:32and as long as it keeps selling weapons now, no longer delivering weapons, but really selling weapons to Ukraine,
03:40without which Ukraine's defenses are going to be much weakened.
03:43So I think that's number one objective for President Zelensky.
03:46That's why he reiterated, actually, his gratitude right after the Geneva negotiations were over,
03:52saying that he's very grateful to Donald Trump for all of the efforts they're making.
03:57Indeed. And what about Europe in all of this?
04:00Initially, European allies were unhappy because they were shut out of that drafting of that initial document.
04:05They're having their own meeting this morning on Ukraine.
04:07How do you see Europe responding?
04:08From what I understand, the European diplomats and negotiators were involved in the Geneva process,
04:15and they have helped Ukraine strengthen its position and influence the negotiations.
04:21All right. Well, thank you so much for that, Anastasia Shapochenko,
04:24for taking the time to speak to us here on France 24.
Be the first to comment