00:00Well, joining me now is expert on NATO and teaching fellow in political science and international security at the University of Strathclyde, Dr Gavin Hall.
00:07Thanks very much for being with us on the programme today.
00:10Zelensky there saying there are no signs, really, that Russia is in any way preparing for peace here.
00:18Yeah, so, well, good morning, good afternoon, even.
00:21In a way, that's not really that surprising because part of what's likely to be President Putin is going to be representing to President Trump is trying to sell the idea of Russia's position of strength, that it's going to be winning this conflict.
00:38And it's really the fighting is just dragging it out, causing more harm and suffering to the civilians in the area.
00:44So there's no real need to continue fighting. We're going to achieve our objectives. It's just a matter of time.
00:50That's the line that President Putin is very likely to take when he meets Trump on Friday.
00:57So it's not really that surprising that Russia is still building up troops, carrying out offensive action.
01:03But, of course, Zelensky is right. That's hardly an overwhelming symbol or symbolic gesture of a country that's looking to move towards peace.
01:13Yeah, there are real fears, aren't there, that Donald Trump will just meet alone with Vladimir Putin.
01:17They'll come up with some kind of a plan, involves Ukraine handing over lads, something that is inevitably, as we heard in Brian Quinn's report, unacceptable for Ukraine.
01:26Yes, and that is a very severe sticking point.
01:32But what you always find in peace negotiations or any negotiations really is you have two effective phases.
01:38Firstly, you have discussions of matters of principle and then you have the finer details.
01:43So whether Ukraine will or won't cede land, that's a matter of principle.
01:49Once you can, if you can get behind that, then you start to talk about the detail, right, what's being given up, who's giving up returning, what and the terms and conditions associated with it.
01:58There was a report over here this morning in one of the newspapers that apparently President Zelensky has now accepted that some of the Ukraine will cede some territory, which, if that's true, that's a fairly seismic shift and will then enable the sort of what if, what actual land would Ukraine give up that phase of the talks be moved on to.
02:22Yeah, it's interesting if that is the case, because obviously Vladimir Zelensky said in the past it's not even up to him.
02:27He would be going against the Constitution, which as a president he can't do.
02:33Yeah, well, that's that's it. That's a constitution is can be amended.
02:38The United States is obviously very familiar with a vast number of amendments and elsewhere.
02:42So it's not unheard of. But obviously, they're trying to limit the scope for what the negotiations are going to take place.
02:51And I think it's worthwhile remembering that the onus here is really on President Trump to actually deliver something.
02:58You might remember during his campaign, he was saying, I'll solve this on day one and then it'll be solved within the first hundred days.
03:06He's kind of marketing himself and putting him out there as this great dealmaker.
03:11Well, here's the opportunity for something to actually happen.
03:14So in many ways, the person that's got most to lose from Friday is actually President Trump.
03:21Because if he doesn't get a deal, well, what does that say about his whole mantra of the way he's conducting himself in office and his presidency?
03:30So there's significant challenges ahead.
03:33And going along with the line that he does get a deal, the next worry, I suppose, is that Donald Trump will then just blame Volodymyr Zelensky because Volodymyr Zelensky can't agree to it.
03:46Yeah, I mean, that's ultimately it.
03:49The European Union statement earlier on today is essentially accurate and correct.
03:53Ukraine is a sovereign country.
03:55It has a right to decide its own destiny and should be involved in these talks unless we're going back to a sort of pre-First World War era where the great powers decide the affairs of smaller nations and just divide them up as they see fit.
04:11But really, if Ukraine is unhappy with the deal or what can it actually do, it can choose to reject it, in which case the United States probably then withdraws any form of support to an even lower level, denies the ability of use of GPS and various weapon systems to be used, which severely then hampers Ukraine's ability to carry on fighting.
04:36So Ukraine doesn't really have too much room for manoeuvre.
04:40What it can do, though, is try and influence and set the tone for how President Trump approaches meeting President Putin and what he's asking for and trying to set the establishment, the parameters of the negotiations.
04:55And this is where people like President Macron in France and President Tusk, Keir Starmer, et cetera, have the ability to try and influence the talks before they actually get underway.
05:09And just finally, I mean, why do you think the European leaders have come up with this today?
05:14Is it simply because otherwise they're going to be completely left out in the cold?
05:17Yeah, the European Union and the individual countries themselves have consistently tried to seek a role within Ukraine because obviously it has severe ramifications for European security more broadly.
05:32So they think Europe should have a role and they're trying to push and get themselves into a position whereby they can have some kind of role and not just be sort of watching or cheerleading from the sidelines.
05:43It's good to talk to you on the programme today. Thanks very much, Dr. Gavin Hall, who's an expert on NATO there and a teaching fellow of political science and international security at the University of Strathclyde.
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