00:00Well, let's speak more on this and bring in Peter Zalmayev, who is director of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative.
00:06He joins us now. Thank you so much for being with us, Peter.
00:09So we've been mentioning there that this draft includes some really significant concessions from Ukraine.
00:15Is there any world in which Kiev would accept this?
00:21Well, this is certainly what Russia is counting on, that this is the world that he would accept it.
00:26And because as we've been reporting and you have been reporting as well, Zelensky has been weakened.
00:34He and his government have been weakened by this huge scandal involving malfeasance and outright corruption by alleged corruption by some members of his team.
00:47And Russia is feeling that the time is auspicious to re-engage with the Trump administration and to try to push through what amounts to another attempt at Ukraine's capitulation.
00:59I have not seen anything in this plan and there are various versions of it being circulated.
01:04There's very little clarity on exactly what this is, if this is a starting point for negotiations,
01:10or if this is the only sort of version of the document that Russians would agree on.
01:15But I don't see any daylight between what Russians had proposed before, what they're proposing now.
01:21You know, official status of the Russian language, army downsizing to two and a half,
01:26which is a slightly slight progress compared to the previous figures.
01:31And crucially, you know, leaving the rest of the Donbass that are still the area that is still in Ukrainian hands.
01:38And that is a no, no for both Ukraine and its European allies.
01:43So too many questions about this plan.
01:46But so far, I'm just not liking what I'm seeing.
01:49Well, Peter, you mentioned something really key there.
01:51There isn't any daylight between the U.S. and Russian proposals, as you said there.
01:55Axios does say that Trump's envoy, Steve Wyckoff, and the Russian envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, were working on this plan together.
02:03Where was Ukraine in all of this? Why weren't they included?
02:07That's another reason why European leaders have been so up in arms about these purported deals and plans
02:15and why last time they decided to visit Washington en masse together to meet with Donald Trump to prevent him from pushing forward any of such, you know, plans.
02:28You know, we're seeing that we're also hearing that Vitkov and company are now thinking up some creative ways to package this
02:37and to, let's say, offer Russia to pay some kind of an annual fee for the use of the Donbass, which is an industrial hub of Ukraine.
02:46I mean, my question is, I mean, which planet are they from?
02:49Russia has declared all of Donbass and three other oblasts or regions of Ukraine as constitutionally belonging to Russia.
02:57Why would Putin, to put ourselves in his shoes, be paying for territory which has now been proclaimed as part of Russia?
03:05This is a humiliating step for Putin.
03:07And this also shows that the Trump administration remains quite ignorant, either willfully or not, about the root causes of this conflict.
03:19I'm also concerned that Donald Trump, now that he's mired in his own sort of set of issues involving Epstein files,
03:25may be in a hurry once again to push through a peace deal to show to his electorate how capable he is of, you know, making peace between countries,
03:33something he's been claiming.
03:34You know, this remains his big prize, peace between Russia and Ukraine.
03:38But in his rush for that, he is ignoring all these other, you know, factors, such as what will, you know, be Ukraine's long-term security.
03:47Ukraine will disarm itself.
03:49Ukraine will give up its land, et cetera.
03:51It will give up on the idea of, you know, having or developing long-range missiles so that Russia can re-attack Ukraine from much stronger positions.
04:00This is a non-starter for Ukraine.
04:03Well, we can see Russia's position in all of this.
04:06We can see what they want.
04:07Talk us through what a peace deal with Ukraine would look like.
04:11What is Ukraine wanting here?
04:12I think Ukraine wants to hear that Russia would ultimately agree that Ukraine is a sovereign state,
04:20and as such, it would maintain control over its foreign policy choices,
04:26whether it, you know, eventually will join NATO or not,
04:29whether it will eventually join the European Union or not,
04:32that it has a standing army worthy of its name,
04:35at least able to, you know, make another invasion by Russia very costly.
04:44Putin, and not just some kind of a National Guard, a nominal army,
04:48sort of like what we're seeing in Belarus next door,
04:51that would essentially make Ukraine not just vulnerable to Russia's continued aggression,
04:56but essentially turn it into a vassal or state, a protectorate of Russia,
05:00where Russia would be calling the shots on everything,
05:03from foreign policy to internal policy to who the president is going to be, etc.
05:08And once again, Russia's, another point is that no foreign troops are ever going to be stationed in Ukraine.
05:15Well, in the absence of NATO's membership for Ukraine,
05:19I'm not seeing any solid guarantee for Ukraine security.
05:25And once again, that makes it a non-starter.
05:27We need to see what will replace NATO's membership as guarantor of Ukraine's continued sovereignty.
05:34Well, Peter, you mentioned earlier just how concerned European allies are about this plan.
05:40What can they do now?
05:42How are they going to be looking to react and act towards this now?
05:47Well, of course, I think a formula has to be found, you know, that will satisfy our allies that Ukraine is going to deal with this huge corruption scandal
05:59that is costing Zelensky and his team a huge amount of credibility,
06:03how they will deal with it in order to, you know, keep our allies happy and satisfied that, you know,
06:09this is just a genuine effort and not just another window dressing element.
06:13And that is to start with, because, of course, if they were to talk to Trump now and his officials,
06:17they will be talking about how corrupt the Ukrainian establishment is.
06:21But Europeans also understand that they cannot give up on Ukraine just because there are these issues that have come up.
06:27They're very serious.
06:29But still, you know, they cannot afford to let Ukraine hang,
06:34especially now that Russia is stepping up its, you know, attacks in Pokrovsk and it's about possible to capture this city,
06:43the part of Ukraine in the south, et cetera.
06:45So I think the very first thing, obviously, will be to approve another tranche for Ukraine.
06:51We're talking about, what, $6 billion.
06:53Otherwise, Ukraine will completely run out of money.
06:55By March, Ukraine will be facing serious crunch time.
06:59And so some of that money will also go to pay for American-made weapons for Ukraine.
07:03So the same old formula, Europeans are pointing up the money, you know, for America's weapons.
07:09Trump does not have to do that.
07:10That's something he's been able to sell to his electorate.
07:13That formula should hold.
07:15Well, Peter, do stay with us, because I do want to go back on something you mentioned earlier
07:18about that widening corruption scandal that has gripped Kyiv at the moment.
07:23It has weakened Zelensky's political position.
07:26France 24's correspondent in Kyiv, Gunnar Krug, has more now on that scandal
07:30and how it can impact discussions on potential peace agreements.
07:34Take a listen.
07:35Well, certainly some people think that it has meant that Volodymyr Zelensky is in a weak position.
07:41And it's the biggest crisis that his government has gone through, for sure.
07:45It's probably the biggest anti-corruption investigation that there's been in Ukraine's history.
07:50That doesn't mean that the sums being stolen involved are the highest of any corruption scandal in Ukraine's history.
07:56But all the same, it's absolutely rocking the government and preoccupying, I'm sure, most people in politics.
08:02It probably means, though, that Volodymyr Zelensky, if he's feeling weakened by this plan,
08:08would be, by this corruption scandal, I mean, would be even less inclined to take this plan seriously
08:14or to even give it the time of day, really, because that would only worsen his popularity
08:20if he was seen as caving in.
08:22So it just makes it more likely that the Ukrainian side will reject this.
08:26Though, of course, Volodymyr Zelensky, ever since February this year,
08:29has been very, very careful to try not to anger Donald Trump
08:32and to say that he's willing to cooperate and that he's willing to talk.
08:35I expect he'll carry on in that same line.
08:38Well, let's bring Peter back in there.
08:40I just want to get your reaction to what our correspondent was saying.
08:43How do you think this corruption scandal will impact those negotiations for a peace deal?
08:50Well, yes, Zelensky finds itself between a rock and a hard place.
08:55As much as Russia has now been on the move in two areas of the front,
09:02and this is sort of a breakthrough for them, still going pretty slowly but faster than before,
09:06I don't think there's a consensus on the part of Ukrainians at large of the army, military men and women
09:11that, you know, they're ready for capitulatory, essentially, negotiations with Russia.
09:17So that leaves Zelensky vulnerable.
09:20Yes, he's vulnerable politically, but at the same time, I agree with your correspondent for him to go ahead and agree to these half-baked plans,
09:29including a handover of the Donbass in its entirety for some kind of a fee, which I don't think is,
09:37I mean, it's not a feasible idea in the first place, but any of these things and a downsizing of the army, etc.,
09:43will be viewed by Ukrainians as essential capitulation.
09:48Zelensky would be, let me put it bluntly, dead meat if he were agreed to that.
09:54Well, what is Zelensky's position like now in Ukraine following this corruption scandal?
10:00Some in his party are proposing a unity government that would effectively dilute his authority.
10:04Is Zelensky on his way out here?
10:08Not really. I mean, we can't, we were stuck in this situation in a very unpleasant kind of status
10:19where the president is, will remain president for as long as this war continues.
10:23The constitution does not allow for the holding of new elections.
10:26And that maybe is something that has allowed Zelensky to sort of, you know, detach himself from reality, you know.
10:34That people aren't happy about the corruption on the part of his minions, people who surround him.
10:39He can claim some plausible deniability that he knew about this, you know.
10:43And we're not accusing Zelensky of profiting from this scheme.
10:46We don't have the proof yet, but it's still a matter of buck-stopping there.
10:51Meaning Zelensky, as president, holds the ultimate responsibility for things that have been happening apparently under his nose for months
11:00and have involved a wide network of associates.
11:03So, serious house cleaning of the likes that we had not seen in Ukraine, with people going to jail,
11:09with serious investigations, with probably the entire cabinet of ministers, you know, resigning.
11:14I mean, nothing short of that will placate the public at this point.
11:19Very much one of the biggest scandals to hit, Kyiv.
11:22Thank you so much for joining us on the program, Peter.
11:25Great to get your thoughts on this issue.
11:27And thank you for joining us on Around the World today.
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