00:00It has been an incredibly cold stretch across the lakes and into the northeast since about
00:06January 24th. What's coming this weekend, the cold air that's coming, will rival some of the
00:12coldest air that we've seen so far this season. But the difference with this cold is going to be
00:17there's going to be lots of wind. And I am convinced that we're going to be looking at a
00:24steady snow from New York City to Boston. Late Friday night and Saturday morning, nothing in my
00:30mind has changed. All right, you know where we're going to start? Where do we always start? We always
00:35start with the cold that's coming with the air here. All right, I want to show you this is this
00:44evening. And you're looking at here's the cold. Here's where it's originating from. This is the
00:49Northwest Territories. This is Hudson Bay. Now, watch that come south. Here we go. As we get into
00:55Friday morning, Friday afternoon, here's the leading edge of that Arctic boundary already through the
01:01East Coast by the time we get in the Saturday morning. And then you could see the cold air
01:05parking itself on Sunday. This is a bona fide shot of Arctic air. I mean, look at these temperatures
01:12as we as we get into there we go. This is Saturday afternoon. I mean, you're this is all teens. These
01:22are single numbers in the lowest levels. These are the two meter temperatures on European. Look at
01:28Sunday morning. Look at look at the zero line. I mean, I mean, I don't think you're going to get below
01:35zero along the 95 before you're going to be in the single numbers. Look how cold this is. And keep in
01:41mind Sunday morning. You have some wind in here as well, although it will be diminishing a little
01:47bit. And that's why the coldest air is in Western New York State. So you have an Arctic air mass in
01:51place. And anytime you have an Arctic air mass coming, you have to worry about snow. And there's
01:56going to be some snow showers and snow squalls with this boundary. But as I mentioned, you have a
02:02shot and I think you're going to see a period of steady snow. And let me show you why. As we move
02:08forward here, I want to show you the, I'm going to show you the European and the American model.
02:12And I want to show you what's happening here. Let's go to Friday evening. What I'm concerned
02:17about is this. You're going to have a leading band of snow out ahead of this Arctic boundary
02:21on Friday. That diminishes. That's, that's this energy down in here. But you've got this big
02:26trough coming in. You see this? It's closed low over Hudson, over James Bay. Watch what this does.
02:33And this is Saturday morning right here. You've got a negatively tilted trough in here. You see
02:40how the trough is somewhat tilted? A little bit. You'll see it a little more. It's tilted from
02:46northwest to southeast. That's important because you start turning the flow out of the south in the
02:52upper part of the atmosphere. You start getting Atlantic moisture. And look at it there. You see
02:56that? That sweeps through. Now, that's that 500 millibars. That's a lot. At the surface, the European,
03:02you can even see, you see in here, and we'll show a close-up. You're starting to show snow in here.
03:08And you've got these lines, what we call isobars, lines of equal pressure, kind of curved like this.
03:14You see that? That's cyclonic curvature. That means you have some upward motion. And the key is,
03:21from Boston to New York City, you do not have a northwest flow. It's a northerly flow because the
03:26wind goes parallel to these lines, which means you don't have any downsloping. Remember, you've got
03:31mountains here across New York State and Pennsylvania. If you get a northwest flow,
03:35game, set, match, you dry things out. The other thing that's key is the depth of this trough.
03:40Look how deep it is. I don't think we can get this snow down toward Philadelphia and the Delmarva
03:47Peninsula. I think it's mostly New York City on north. But you can see the potential here. Take a
03:51look at the GFS. Same story. Look at this big dip in the jet stream. This is Saturday afternoon.
03:57Look at that. And you've got this little negative tilt to it. And even the GFS, the American model,
04:03which I'm sad to say has not been the best lately. It shows all this blue. And again,
04:09the cyclonically curved isobars, which means you have upward motion. Now, what I want to do is start
04:14looking at one of the models I have more and more faith in now, the AI models to get better and better.
04:20This is the European, and this is a close-up. European AI. Saturday, look at this. Now,
04:26I'm going to stop it right here. This is Saturday afternoon. Dipping the jet stream, negatively tilted.
04:33You notice these bars? They're coming where? Out of the south. That means you're starting to bring
04:38Atlantic moisture into here. With all this energy coming in, that's aloft. Then at the surface,
04:44again, look what's going on. You've got these little curved isobars like this. The wind's coming
04:50in out of the north. And you're also, you know, you're starting to see a little more printout. Look
04:55at the green here. You're seeing more and more wear in southeastern New England and cold air in place.
05:03High ratio snow, very fluffy snow. That's the European AI. How about the GFS AI, which I trust far more
05:11than the regular GF model here? Same story. Look at this. See? Look at that at one o'clock.
05:19Dipping the jet stream, southerly flow aloft. At the surface, you've got these curved isobars.
05:26This is the same thing. Listen, it is going to snow. Late Friday night, Saturday morning,
05:35around from New York City toward Boston. Let me show you the snowfall map, and I can also tell you
05:40what I'm concerned about with it. So here it is. Now, huge area of one to three inches of snow.
05:48And, you know, you've got the front weather on Friday. Then you have the Arctic boundary. But
05:53the area I'm focusing in on is right in here. This is where, I mean, it's just going to snow here,
06:00late Friday night, Saturday morning. New York City, I think you're on the southwestern edge of this.
06:06We have a coating to an inch for you. I think that's good. Now, one to three inches,
06:11central eastern Long Island, Providence, Boston, Hartford. But I'm telling you right now,
06:17and three to six, by the way, ocean effect snow on the Cape, three to six inches. But I'm telling
06:23you right now, there's going to be a three to six inch area somewhere in here. Don't know where.
06:27It's not going to be widespread. But Providence, Hartford, in this area, Connecticut Valley,
06:32maybe southern Massachusetts, do not be surprised if you see five to six inches of snow somewhere in
06:38that area. Generally one to three, someone's going to end up with a half foot of snow in there.
06:44And that's the story on the feed.
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