What will the remainder of hurricane season be like?

AccuWeather

In today's Forecast Feed, AccuWeather's Geoff Cornish takes a look at what the remainder of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season could look like.

Transcript

00:00All right, we're taking a look at the rest of the hurricane season, at least let's say through

00:04October over the next couple of months. The feed, as I call it, powered by the AccuWeather Pro site

00:09where you too can be a pro. All right, let's take a look at the satellite picture here this morning.

00:15And in the Atlantic, you've got double trouble with Imelda and Umberto, but the rest of the

00:19Atlantic is relatively quiet. In fact, boy, oh boy, you've got this upper low here. So all of

00:25this tropical moisture is pulled northward. I was just talking to Alex DeSilva a short time ago and

00:30he made this point. I think he's right. If you would just look at this area, the Caribbean and

00:35the Gulf, you would swear you're in the middle of January. I mean, this is as clean as it would get

00:39this time of the year. Still lots of the hurricane season left to go here. So we are right in here,

00:47right at this line. And yes, I see that the storms historically go down, the potential for

00:54storms and hurricanes. But it's still, as we saw last year, can be very, very busy during the month

01:01of September. Oh, I should say on October. Okay, I want to show you this. So what's going on in the

01:08Atlantic right now? Why is it so quiet? And, you know, we always talk about three ingredients. Warm

01:14water, we have that. Plenty of moisture, we have that. But one thing that we have too much of

01:19is wind shear, right? I want to show you this graphic. This is our wind shear product

01:24right now. And you'll notice that here we are today. Let me give you your bearings so everybody

01:30sees it. This right here, this is Florida. So east coast of the United States. This is the west

01:38coast of Africa. And what you're looking at is when you see the darker colors, the red, yellows,

01:42and orange, that's wind shear. I mean, you have a lot of, here's the Caribbean right in here.

01:47This is the one part where you don't have a lot of wind shear. But you have wind shear all over

01:52the Atlantic. So any tropical wave that can try to get into the Caribbean to develop has to bust

01:58through this wind shear. And it's just not happening. I mean, this is what it looks like

02:02today. Let's go a week from now. Let's see what it looks like a week from now. I tend to trust this

02:06product quite a bit here. So this is a week from now. What do you see? Again, this west coast of

02:13Africa, here's Florida, right in here. Look at all of this wind shear denoted by the yellow and the

02:19green. Nothing's going to be able to survive the Atlantic or that wind shear coming across the

02:24Atlantic. Any wave that comes off Africa, there's no pathway for any wave coming off Africa to get

02:30to the United States. In fact, let's go to the 14th. So this is mid-October. Well, how does it change?

02:36It gets worse. In fact, this shuts down the entire Atlantic west of the, east of the islands. Here

02:43are the islands. Here's Hispaniola. Here's Cuba. The entire Atlantic closed for business right now.

02:51Now, that's the tropical Atlantic, not so much as we head closer to home. So I want to give you an

02:57idea here of what we're looking at moving forward here. So let me show you this.

03:02This is what we're thinking here. Large pockets of wind shear are going to prevent development

03:11throughout much of the Atlantic basin. What does that mean? I don't think there's going to be a

03:15long track storm headed toward the United States. Now, there may be a long track storm that can curl

03:20east of the United States, but it's not coming to the east coast of the United States. The question is,

03:25can anything sneak into the Caribbean? I don't think so. However, we have to worry about home

03:31grown development. And what do I mean by that? Where you get an interaction between the jet stream

03:38and the tropics to form development. So what I want to show you next is, okay, with that in mind,

03:44is there anything down the road that we have to worry about? Well, what I want to show you is

03:50very interesting here. Let me go full on this. Let me go full on this so you can see it. So this is the

03:56European model. And here we are. I don't see anything, anything. You don't see any yellows,

04:02oranges, or red, anything in the Atlantic basin here. This is next Monday. But let's go out into

04:10the mid-October timeframe and you start seeing some interesting things. You start seeing energy

04:16showing up here. You see the yellows, oranges, and red. This is the American model off the southwest

04:20coast of the United States and into the Caribbean. Even the European model, by the time we get into

04:27the middle part of the month, look at this. You start seeing this. Ah, energy into the Caribbean.

04:33And that's our parting shot here on the feed this morning. As we go forward, this is going to be the

04:39area of the watch. We keep harping on this and we're concerned. Homegrown development in the Caribbean,

04:45Gulf. And I'll tell you what, I'd even add the Southwest Atlantic. Let's keep an eye on that.

04:51And that's our message in the feed today.

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