Raven Run Stakes Preview: Gino & Scott's Betting Picks

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00:00It's an interesting race here, Scott.

00:02We have three-year-old fillies going seven furlongs here.

00:05I think there's one or two that you can look at.

00:07They have the reputation.

00:09A horse like Ragtime has been really, really solid.

00:11It's just tough to knock overall.

00:13You can make a lot of cases for horses in here.

00:16You have some coming off long layoffs,

00:17some who were good earlier in the year

00:19and we haven't seen for a while.

00:21Let's start things out with Delightful Claire.

00:23I mean, she's one of the ones in here.

00:25She has a really big win when she broke her maiden.

00:27Her other three races haven't been bad.

00:29She hasn't been able to get back to that brilliance

00:31that she showed in the maiden win.

00:33But when you know she has that as a ceiling,

00:35that she can get to that,

00:37she's certainly a talented filly

00:39and she might fall through the cracks a little bit here

00:41based on this big field and a lot of different options.

00:44Yeah, down on the inside will be the tricky part,

00:46but she's got talent.

00:47She's been bet heavily along the way all of her starts

00:50and she ran better than looks last time,

00:52finishing third to Ragtime.

00:53As you mentioned, Ragtime, the favorite in here.

00:56She was the one involved early

00:58while the first two finishers took advantage

00:59of a somewhat contentious pace.

01:01One of my only concerns would be

01:03she hasn't always been quick right out of the gate.

01:06And if she, you know, she's like a stumble

01:07or maybe a step slow, if that happens

01:09and you're down on the inside

01:10and she gets shuffled behind horses,

01:12might not be the easiest trip.

01:14Scott, you look at Vixen

01:15and who she was facing on the turf

01:17just a couple months ago.

01:19And those races look even stronger now

01:21after a little bit of time.

01:22She's behind Nitrogen.

01:23She's in front of grade one winner, Fionn.

01:26And she's right behind grade one winner, Lush Lips,

01:28who I think you liked when we previewed that QE2 race.

01:31So, I mean, she's been facing really tough company

01:34on the turf.

01:35We just don't know if that'll translate over to the dirt.

01:37Yeah, it's a little bit of an odd spot.

01:39You know, there's plenty of turf races.

01:41I guess just taking a chance, you know,

01:42obviously getting black type in a grade two dirt race

01:45would do a lot for her.

01:47Feels a little stabby to me,

01:48but you're going to get the right price.

01:50Grade three plays strong.

01:51State adds the Blinkers.

01:52This filly was behind Ragtime

01:54and she finished right in front of Delightful Claire

01:56in that Dogwood.

01:58She's not done a whole lot wrong in her career, Scott,

02:00but she will face a pretty tough group in here.

02:03She's very good, actually, I think,

02:04in a live shot in here.

02:06I would like her a little more, though.

02:08For some reason, Alstall's putting the Blinkers back on.

02:11I mean, I guess he's wanting to get more speed out of her,

02:13thinking horses are getting the jump on her,

02:15but she's got a lot of talent and can finish.

02:17So maybe if the equipment change works,

02:19it'll really propel her.

02:21We move to Volleyball Princess.

02:23She just feels a little bit overmatched.

02:26She had a big win back in February

02:28when she won the Ruthless,

02:29but she just hasn't really progressed since then.

02:31Yeah, both of her wins came against softer competition.

02:34One is a long shot at Parks on debut,

02:36and then besting a field really easy in the Ruthless.

02:39Hasn't gotten back to that.

02:41I think she's up against it.

02:42I want to give some credit to trainer Aggie Ordone.

02:45She has done a fantastic job with the Calbred Almond Joy.

02:48Scott, this gal has won five races in a row.

02:51She stepped up and she beat Open Company,

02:53but she will now be facing just a tougher group than she's faced before.

02:58She's going to have to get a little faster on speed figures,

03:00but at any level, it is not easy to win five straight races.

03:04A cool horse, a couple at one of the races or two of the races at two turns.

03:08You see her there getting the job done at four to one

03:11in the Torrey Pines against Open Company.

03:13Very nice horse, strong trainer, going to be a big price,

03:17but this is a lot to ask.

03:18Maybe an underneath type.

03:20Reputation did face older last time out,

03:23lost to a horse named Holland Ice,

03:24who was able to just get the lead and cruise in there.

03:27What do you do with Reputation now getting back with three-year-olds?

03:31You see some same common rivals with her and Maida,

03:34that same one GW's girl who she beat a couple starts back.

03:37Yeah, she's likely to take money,

03:39maybe more than she should because of the My Racehorse angle.

03:42You see how much money she takes almost every start

03:45other than the one at Churchill Downs.

03:48I think she's up against it because I'm just not sure

03:50what trip works best for her,

03:52and she has another one that doesn't get out of the gate all that well.

03:54I agree.

03:55I think I wanted to like her a little bit,

03:57but I just can't really project it in my head

03:59where she's going to be in the race.

04:00Maida kind of had a stuttering start,

04:03but she still was able to get the lead.

04:04She still was able to open up two, Scott.

04:06She cruised there.

04:08All three races on the fast track are victories.

04:12Her only defeat came in her career debut,

04:14and that was on a wet track.

04:16Her dam was pretty solid too, kind of sneaky.

04:20She was six for 11.

04:21She was a grade three winner

04:22who ended up earning a 99 buyer speed figure

04:24two different times when she was racing.

04:27This is a quick filly,

04:28but, man, she's going to have to go a little bit longer,

04:30and in a big field like this,

04:32this will be a lot to ask of her.

04:34Yeah, big step up in class,

04:35as we saw her there,

04:36dominating the field in the weather vein.

04:38And, yes, you know, that's a $100,000 race,

04:40but if you just look at the buyer speed figures

04:42from the horses she's been competing against to now,

04:44big class test,

04:45has to answer the seven furlong question.

04:48And Brittany Russell, as high percentage as she is,

04:50just won for 18 at Keeneland over the last five years.

04:53Move to Usha.

04:54She began her career in the Bob Baffert barn.

04:58And her first three starts, Scott,

05:00they weren't bad.

05:01She just ran into other horses,

05:03like a couple Baffert horses at the time

05:04that were a little further along than her

05:06and maybe a little better than her.

05:08She took some time off from October of 2024

05:11to July of this year.

05:13And she shows back up in July.

05:15She wins by 11.

05:16And then in her second start back,

05:18she won.

05:19She actually went right to the lead that time.

05:21And she wins again pretty impressively by five lengths here.

05:25Both of those races,

05:26horses that she beat came back to win their next starts.

05:29So she's been beating horses that are in good form

05:32and productive right now.

05:33She's kind of a wild card in here to me.

05:35I really didn't know what to do with her

05:36because I think she certainly has talent,

05:38but this will be a big step up.

05:40Yeah, she has to run without Lasix.

05:42She's really moved forward.

05:43You have to wonder if the New York brand is just,

05:45you know,

05:46anti-bleeding medication has made that much of a difference

05:48or if she just figured things out,

05:50she is going to get a really good trip in here

05:52outside the other speeds.

05:54Rag time deserve tons of respect.

05:56She loves seven furlong.

05:57She's a grade one.

05:58She's grade one placed

05:59and she just hasn't done anything wrong.

06:02Her four starts,

06:03she's only lost once

06:04and she was defeated by a neck that day.

06:06Most recently,

06:07it wasn't even like things went perfect for her

06:09when you watched her at Churchill Downs.

06:11Here she is a couple of starts back

06:12when she was second in the test,

06:14but she's just a nice filly, Scott.

06:16I think she's like a measuring stick for this level,

06:18for this race,

06:19and I figure she's going to run really well.

06:22She might not be the horse to bet, though,

06:23at a shortish price.

06:24That's it.

06:25I mean, everybody can see she's serious.

06:27She can finish with serious energy.

06:28She's almost undefeated,

06:30but she doesn't get out of the gate well,

06:31so she's going to have to work out a trip

06:33in a big field where she's not to the outside.

06:35So, I don't know.

06:36We'll see.

06:37She's got a lot of talent,

06:38but I'm not going to bet on her.

06:39I thought any of the three outside horses

06:40you can make little cases for.

06:42I mean, simply joking was a horse

06:44who won her first two starts.

06:45She's in the fantasy,

06:47the grade two fantasy.

06:48She runs right behind quiet side,

06:50and you might look at her races

06:51and think that maybe a mile

06:52and a little beyond a mile

06:53was stretching it for her.

06:55She could be perfect

06:56at this seven furlong distance.

06:58She's actually been working really well

06:59in the morning

07:00with multiple graded stakes winner Liguria.

07:02What do we do with this gal

07:03coming into the Michael McCarthy barn?

07:05Yeah, I'm not sure if sprinting

07:06is just a starting point or not,

07:08but this is a big ask for her.

07:09One of the two fillies in a row

07:11we're going to talk about here

07:12that's coming out of the Kentucky Oaks

07:13as their last race in early May.

07:15Yeah, quiet side who beat

07:16the Simply Joking in the fantasy

07:18also hasn't raced

07:19since the Kentucky Oaks.

07:20She got two pretty nice trips,

07:22though, in her two wins last year

07:24where she was able to just

07:25kind of sit close and fall into them.

07:27What do we do with quiet side?

07:28I don't know.

07:28I'm wondering if they're hoping

07:29maybe this race propels her

07:31to the LeBray,

07:31but she was a two-turn horse

07:33for the most part.

07:34Maybe they'll want to try

07:35to get that grade one.

07:36Six for 84 in Kentucky

07:37over the last six months,

07:39though, for Johnny Ortiz.

07:40We'll see you next time.

07:41We'll see you next time.

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