00:00The Grade 2 Demoiselle going a mile and an eighth on the main track there.
00:05And Scott will start things out with Jumping the Gun, who has raced four times.
00:10She's won three of them, and her races are all over at Delaware Park.
00:15So this will be kind of an acid test for her.
00:16She'll get a step up in competition to see where she really stacks up.
00:20But she hasn't done a whole lot wrong in those races,
00:24and she is coming out of a race where there were two horses to come back to win their next start.
00:29So the race is actually a live race.
00:32But, you know, this will be a much tougher group than what she's faced so far.
00:36Yeah, you know, normally I see these Delaware horses and no knock on Delaware.
00:40Both my parents are from there.
00:41But I think that it's a big step up.
00:44But I look at this field and we just don't know a lot about, especially at a mile and an eighth.
00:48And this horse has progressed really nicely, has a good inside draw,
00:52and has the ability to get the two turns completely based on pedigree.
00:57So I ended up thinking this horse has a—this filly has a big, big chance in this spot,
01:03more so because of what we'll talk about later.
01:05But maybe this filly is better than we think was hammered in all four of the starts to kick off the career.
01:10Yeah, and I'm warming up to her a little bit more, too, because I couldn't get too creative in this race.
01:15And she doesn't seem far below the rest of this field.
01:18Like, if she is five, six to one and above, that's a very fair price on her in this spot.
01:23We move to Schilling, who won back-to-back races at Aqueduct.
01:28We're watching the November 6th race where she's winning the Tempted by four lengths.
01:33She's actually defeating Believable, who is the number six, her rival, on Saturday.
01:38So pretty good performance from her.
01:40She's able to put away the other early speed.
01:43And then she opens up by five.
01:45And Believable is just kind of on the scene late for second.
01:48You know, the worst part about this, Philly, is you're taking a shorter price likely in this race than you ever have on her in her career.
01:55And, you know, this is going to be theoretically the toughest spot.
01:59It's not a Philly they were super high on, you know, didn't make, you know, didn't get the start at Saratoga.
02:04I feel like she's going to be involved early, but I think the Philly to her outside is faster than her.
02:09I don't really see a huge, you know, route to success for her in this race unless she's really legitimate.
02:16Zany is the three.
02:18She was a really impressive debut winner on November the 2nd at Gulfstream Park.
02:22She was just off the lead.
02:24She was second.
02:25I mean, she was always involved and really close to it early on.
02:29She put away that other speed horse and she draws off.
02:32What was nice about seeing her win at this distance, Scott, is that her dam was a four-time winner and all of those wins were going long.
02:40So she actually should be fine going a distance like this.
02:44So, Dan actually won the grade three top flight going a mile and an eighth at Aqueduct.
02:49Yeah, this is interesting.
02:51This is the Philly that is going to be the favorite, but is she going to be there?
02:54She's been at Gulfstream down in Florida.
02:57That needs going on.
02:59You know, Todd's got another one in the race.
03:01Everything about her, you know, makes you think that she's tough.
03:04The only thing I didn't like about the debut is she didn't break all that well in that race, and you never know how that's going to matter as she stretches out.
03:11But she looked really fast in that race, and she's clearly going to be the one you have to beat on the toad board.
03:17Her concurrently won on November the 2nd.
03:20That was breaking the maiden for her.
03:22She's another one who has a solid pedigree.
03:24Her dam was a five-time winner, all of them going long.
03:28Multiple stakes winner was grade three placed.
03:30I thought this was a pretty good effort when breaking the maiden.
03:33But she did lose to believable two starts back, so she's going to have to turn the tables on that rival.
03:38Right.
03:39I don't think she's going to be three to one.
03:41David is the best in the business, Aragona, our colleague, at creating these morning lines, maybe be a little bit higher in price.
03:48She didn't take money early on in her career.
03:51I think that she's going to be one of the ones that's going to really appreciate the added ground in here.
03:55She's been at one turn.
03:57Now she's going to stretch out to two turns.
03:58So concurrently, three to one on the line, maybe we'll get a little bit of a better price, but still don't love her chances to win.
04:05Ivy Girl won on November the 15th over at Aqueduct.
04:08That was in her second start.
04:09She's a half to a horse named Bajan, who was multiple stakes placed, multiple stakes winner, grade one place.
04:15Can you build a case for that one?
04:16She's coming out of a maiden claiming races and won at Park, which is a softer competition, six horse field, where she was beat 13 lengths.
04:25And then she had to break her maiden in for a tag.
04:27She's been available for you and I for 40K.
04:30I think she seems most up against, and I think the toe board will suggest it.
04:33We round out the field with Believable coming off that runner-up effort behind Schilling.
04:39The blinks come on.
04:40Can you make a case for Believable?
04:42Well, I mean, based on pedigree, this is a Philly that should love the added ground.
04:46Way back, her full sibling, who it's been a while, tenfold, I think was second in the Preakness, though, for Steve Asmussen.
04:52I don't love the way this won and ran in either of her races, particularly, lose the last time out.
04:58She doesn't break well.
05:00They're adding the blinkers, but, you know, 800K, this Philly's supposed to get better as the distances get longer.
05:06So, who knows?
05:07But I have a feeling we'll take a little more money than I would want to take.
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