2025 Lure Stakes Preview: Betting Picks & Predictions

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00:00This one is the lure stakes, Scott. And what's tricky about this race, it's for three-year-olds

00:05and up, which have not won a sweepstakes at a mile or over in 2025. So what you're looking at

00:10are horses that aren't really in the best form at the stakes level. They have been beaten a few

00:15times or maybe even facing softer company. So there's just not a lot of win machines in this

00:20race. I mean, five to two morning line favorite, St. Anthony is a horse who is 0 for 6 at Santa

00:27Anita has never even hit the board in six races at Santa Anita. And while he is coming

00:32out of some difficult races, it was 125 to one last time out in that race when he finished

00:38sixth. I mean, he has been really big prices. My other counter would be some good riders have

00:44jumped aboard him recently. Tyler Gaflione, Umberto Rispoli, and even Juan Hernandez comes

00:49back again here. But Scott, I mean, this isn't the type of horse that I would want to bet at

00:53five to two or two to one.

00:55No, it's almost hard when you first look at him to understand why he would be, but

00:59you made a great point. Great for novice to beginner horse players. Always read the conditions

01:04of the race because it looks like this would be a tougher race than two back, but it's not

01:08even remotely close. So that's why he fits well in this spot. I don't love him here, but

01:13he fits.

01:14Mystic Spirit is the next one up. He's 0 for the last seven, and he was overmatched in cow

01:20bread stakes races. I will give him a nod though for the horse that he most recently lost to

01:25Man of Rose. That horse came back and won the California flag next time out with a really

01:30big speed figure, and he beat a nice horse named Lovesick Blues who's going to be headed

01:33to the Breeders' Cup. What do we do with Mystic Spirit?

01:36He's going to be a huge price. Expect him to try to show speed. You know, this barn claimed

01:42him for 20K out of the state bread race. Tried him on the dirt at Los Alts. Didn't work.

01:47Probably what they claimed him for. They're 0 for 35 at Santa Anita and turf races over

01:52the last five years with just one in the money finish. Tough to get to.

01:56Watsonville is next up. This is a grade two winner, Scott. He just hasn't been the same

02:01since 2023. He's only raced four times since the start of 2024. So you just don't have a

02:08whole lot of form to go off. And while he's been in graded stakes and he's faced the stakes

02:13group last time out, I just would have loved to see him on the track a few more times.

02:17I mean, he fits with this group. If he showed up with one of his better efforts,

02:20he would be right there. But we're going back to a couple years ago for some of those efforts.

02:25Yeah, I wonder if we've seen his best already. I guess the major positive I would take,

02:29turf riding at two turns, very important to rider. And he does get Freisu back,

02:34who I do think is a significant upgrade. Freisu was aboard his last win and it was actually

02:38in a grade two.

02:39It's funny when you're handicapping races because like I looked at this field before I dived

02:43in and I thought endlessly, like there's no way I'm going to be picking a horse like

02:46endlessly. And then I ended up picking endlessly in here, Scott, kind of by default, you go through

02:51the rest of the field and I know endlessly is over the last six, but this is a multiple

02:55graded stakes winner who even in running poorly recently still has been running better than

03:02most of the other field. I think he's going to get a pretty good setup. I look back at the

03:06race. The wicker wasn't awful. He actually was down on the inside. And if you look, he was

03:11facing deterministic integration for bridge, uh, King of Gosford, gold Phoenix. Those horses

03:18are just better than what he's facing in here. I think with horses like Goliad, Sumter and

03:23Nesso's last to raw all to his outside, he probably gets a pretty good trip in here, Scott. So I mean,

03:28if it's going to be him and St. Anthony at similar prices, or if he's going to be a little bit better

03:33of a price, I'm absolutely going to endlessly.

03:36Yeah. I like him too. And this spot didn't expect to, but the blinkers going on for the

03:40third straight time, riskfully back aboard different ride to back by a barrier. So very

03:46under aggressive ride. I think he had more to give than a shows in the PPs that day.

03:51Goliad is a multiple graded stakes winner. He's an eight year old now, and he's really tough when

03:55he can clear the field and get to the lead. That's what he wants to do. He's just a runoff type horse,

04:00but we now have four straight races, Scott, where he hasn't been top five. And I get worried when

04:05horses are a little older and they start to string races like that together.

04:09And it looked like they tried new tactics last time. For some reason, they let Epic ride loose

04:13on the lead, but they didn't send it aggressively from the inside draw. This horse needs the lead.

04:17I expect them to try for it, but I agree. I think he's a little long in the tooth.

04:22Sumter takes the blinkers off. He's only one for his last 21, but that win was in this race last

04:28year when he kind of fell right into the victory. What do you do with Sumter here?

04:32Yeah. I don't think he's the same horse. Although he won this race last year,

04:35the blinkers going on last time they're coming off. It feels like trainer Richard Mandela

04:39reaching for something. Nesso's last hurrah rounds things out. He ran fifth in the Eddie D

04:44going six and a half furlong. Scott didn't really run poorly that day. I think he just finished

04:48behind a couple of horses that might've been a little better than him. He feels like stretching

04:52back out. He's going to be forwardly placed. I think he fits with this group. I am a little

04:57worried about the race shape though, because Goliad is really quick. Sumter's pretty quick too.

05:01I think he's taking advantage of situations in his two, two turn races. I think he wants

05:06to go shorter and I think he's going to run into it. Like you said, a tougher situation

05:10on the front end in this one.

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