00:00You could go in a lot of different directions here, Scott.
00:02Let's start with the one, Baraka.
00:04I mean, Brendan Walsh has a couple legitimate chances in this race.
00:08Baraka is two for two.
00:10She's been visually impressive.
00:11She's going to stretch out to a sprint.
00:13She's going to have a really nice pedigree, too.
00:15She's half to a horse named Power Broker, who is a grade one winner.
00:18And then he also has a shot with a horse that we'll meet in a little bit, Bella Ballerina.
00:23What do you think about Brendan Walsh's chances here?
00:25Well, I mean, both of them are hard to knock, and it's what makes these races so great.
00:29You know, a lot of Phillies or Colts in other cases that have done very little wrong.
00:33Oscar Performance, daughter of Oscar Performance, has done very little wrong.
00:37Had a really good trip, had a dream run last out, but didn't have a dream run in her debut.
00:41She's one on both.
00:42She draws inside, and her pedigree says she can get the distance.
00:45Essential Coffee is a half to a horse named Skinner, who was a grade three winner.
00:50He's a horse, or she's a horse who was very fast and, like, precocious.
00:54I still think she's fast, but I'm not sure if she's quite as good as this group.
00:57I think they may have caught up to her, Scott.
00:59Yeah, it's interesting.
01:00The pedigree says she is a sprinter, I mean, a route horse, but Steve has managed her like a horse that has, you know, been precocious, and he debuted her early at Churchill.
01:10She won, got disqualified.
01:12I don't think she's going to live up to that pedigree.
01:14I'm with you.
01:14I think she's up against it here.
01:16So many interesting horses in here, like the three, Just Singing.
01:19You look at what this horse has done in her two starts.
01:21She was a fine fourth and kind of an inside tricky trip in her debut.
01:25She comes back and wins nicely.
01:27She looks like a horse who should have no problem, you know, getting, coming from off the pace if she gets a setup here.
01:33And she's a horse to a half sibling to a horse named Danzig Candy, who was a grade two winner who earned $700,000 and a multiple graded stakes winner.
01:41Yeah, I was out in California for Danzig Candy, I believe.
01:44But yeah, this one ran really well last time.
01:47My problem with it was favorable flow.
01:49You don't usually see that kind of move win, four wide middle move, but the flow was good that day.
01:54The outside was good that day.
01:55So I think maybe the field wasn't that good.
01:58I think it looks a little better and it was a little better visually than it was in actuality, but big price.
02:04V to me, it looks like she might be part of the early pace in here.
02:08This feels like a tougher group than what she's been facing recently.
02:11And they're going to add the blinks today or they're going to take the blinks off.
02:14Excuse me.
02:14They're going to take them off.
02:15The lone wind came loose on the lead at Gulfstream at a one turn mile run a lot slower.
02:19I don't think she's fast enough to make the lead tough spot.
02:22Let me count the ways is a New York bred stakes winner.
02:25Now she's going to step up, Scott.
02:26She's going to get the acid test because she's crushed New York breads in her first two starts.
02:30She has been very fast.
02:32So she players, speed figure players, people like that are going to maybe be attracted to her.
02:37I'm worried about the distance.
02:39I'm worried about how she'll handle other speeds.
02:41But there's no doubt that she's been eye opening with her wins in New York against state breads.
02:46Can't knock life of joy for trainer Brad Cox.
02:48Irad Ortiz Jr. is aboard.
02:50He jumped aboard in the rags to riches.
02:52She won that race after a very impressive win over at Horseshoe Indy.
02:57And what's nice about her is I really like the trip that she sat in her most recent race, Scott.
03:01She was sitting close.
03:02She moved to the lead.
03:03She looks like she's a horse that you can kind of place in different spots in the race.
03:06Exactly.
03:07I think there's going to be a lot of speed in here.
03:09And I don't think she's going to be one of the speed.
03:11So she should get a good trip.
03:13She showed the ability to finish at two turns.
03:15Don't hold it against her that she debuted at Horseshoe Indy.
03:17She's always been based in Kentucky.
03:19Kind of reminds me a little of maybe an Angel of Empire who was a cult, but also debuted going two turns.
03:25Those races are just what's available for two-turn horses.
03:28And clearly Brad thought this was a two-turn horse right away.
03:31The blinkers go on for Raspberry, but still a maiden here.
03:34I think a pace factor who will stretch out, add the blinks, needs to just get a little bit faster on paper to compete.
03:40Right.
03:41I mean, you can see that she's never won a race, but I would say, you know, don't hold that overly against her.
03:46She's stretching out.
03:48This is a trainer capable of winning, moving horses up off of their first or second start.
03:52She had the blinkers.
03:53She's got a very good rider.
03:55She could definitely get a slice at a big price.
03:57Well, Wansi Weather is the next one.
04:00This two-year-old filly, still a maiden as well.
04:02Now, if you just want to get an idea of where she stacked up against maidens, she was 13-1 in the race against maidens most recently, and she was still pretty well defeated in there when finishing fifth.
04:13Can you make a case for her here?
04:15Nah, I mean, if you can make a case for her, you're going to be rewarded because 30-1, I think, will turn into a lot higher.
04:22She's a maiden.
04:24She's never run competitively on the dirt, and she has no speed.
04:28Very, very tough recipe for her to overcome.
04:30We move to Atropa, who, in the career debut, was on a sloppy racetrack over at Saratoga.
04:37Then, in her second start, she stretched out.
04:39It was a couple months after, and on October the 19th, she absolutely crushed a field at Keeneland, Scott.
04:45She wins that race by 10 lengths, and the runner-up, the horse that she beat and finished second, came right back to win a maiden special weight race next out with a really solid buyer speed figure.
04:56I think she makes a lot of sense off of that effort.
04:58What concerns me, though, as a gambler is when, you know, you play a horse coming off of a big win like that, a lot of times they'll regress.
05:06What I like is that she didn't run an incredibly fast speed figure to where it seems like it might have been so fast that she'd have a hard time putting races together.
05:14So, I kind of go back and forth from her, but her win was certainly impressive.
05:18Yeah, it's tough to knock her off of her last win, but like you, the only concern is really regression.
05:25Plus, Life of Joy and this Philly and other ones are going to take a lot more money than the morning line we have up with the big scratch in there.
05:32I think, you know, obviously a move forward, I think she wins the race, and these are connections very capable of continuing to move forward.
05:39They thought enough of her to take her to Saratoga, so I think she's got a lot of upside here, but she's going to regress almost definitely.
05:46It's kind of how much.
05:48Coco Connect comes off of a win over at Keeneland on October the 22nd.
05:52She put away some of the other speed early on.
05:55She opened up.
05:56She's a little bit green late.
05:57It was a solid effort, but she will need to progress again in here to be competitive.
06:02She will.
06:02Bella, I was trying to make a case for another race in the car, the third place finisher in that race, and I just don't know how good that race was.
06:10Jokemaker, the runner-up finisher, isn't that good, and this horse, I think up against it, but don't hold the debut against this John Ennis trainee.
06:16He never wins at first, asking.
06:19Bella Ballerina was very impressive on October 5th when she won her career debut.
06:25If you look at a lot of little things about her, so her debut win was very good.
06:29Her dam won twice at Churchill Downs, won the grade one spin away at Saratoga, so showed precocity, and also won over this track.
06:37She's a half-sibling to Pretty Mischievous, who was third in this race and then went on to win the grade one Kentucky Oaks and was a three-time grade one winner.
06:45Oh, and the horse she beat, Debbie Dahl, came back to win next time out with a nice speed figure.
06:50So she checks a lot of boxes for me, Scott.
06:53The big concern I have, she'll be stretching out from six furlongs all the way to a mile and a sixteenth.
06:59That's a lot to ask, even for very talented horses, but I think she really does have some ability.
07:05You combine all of those facts with an outside draw, and it will be a tough task.
07:09She looks like she's got talent.
07:10She's bred to be a serious filly, as you mentioned.
07:13It's just a matter of, can she put it together in this spot?
07:16Can she live up to the pedigree expectations?
07:19But she was very, very good on debut, like you said.
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