Race Analysis: Perryville Stakes Grade 3 Preview & Tips

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00:00Let's get to our next race preview, Scott.

00:02It's the grade three Perryville.

00:04And what I thought was really fun about handicapping this race and also tricky is that to me,

00:09some of the horses who could get the best setups on paper are horses who I don't really know

00:15if they're in their best form right now, or I don't really know what to do with.

00:18The horse like Barnes just kind of at first glance looks like could be better going seven

00:22furlongs with some speed in here, but he's a really quirky horse and one that's kind

00:26of hard to trust at a short price.

00:28Let's meet the field for the Perryville here.

00:30And we start with gaming.

00:32He's one of a couple of Bob Baffert runners in this field.

00:34And he kind of feels like he might be in here to be the speed of the Baffert horses to kind

00:40of help set up a late rally for game for Barnes, but gaming in his own right has shown some

00:45talent, Scott.

00:46He was a grade one winner at two.

00:48He just hasn't really seemed like he stepped forward all that much.

00:52And coming off of his last two races, I don't really know how to assess him.

00:55He was in a field of four when he got the lead and had no pressure.

00:59And then he was in a field of three when he couldn't get the lead.

01:02And he was almost eased in that race.

01:04What do we do with him here?

01:06Man, he just, I mean, first off, I'll say he's a much bigger price than he has ever been.

01:11Probably great point.

01:12Yeah.

01:12He was sick.

01:12He was six to one in the breeders cup juvenile and ran second.

01:15He's probably going to be a bigger price than that.

01:17All that said, he feels like the kind of horse that has already peaked, that kind of peaked

01:22as a two-year-old.

01:23There are not really any spots to run this horse, you know, once you have three wins for

01:28a horse of this nature.

01:29So it feels to me like they've been trying to find the right spot or just running him

01:34against his stable mates in some cases.

01:36I know he won the Affirm, but that was a four-horse field when he was loose on the lead.

01:40So to me, gaming is a toss, but it really, it's not telling you that much at eight to

01:46one.

01:46Taylor's version has pretty big speed.

01:49He comes out of a race where he was fast from the outside very early.

01:52He opened up two lengths.

01:54That was a nice victory.

01:55His last two races sprinting on the dirt are very good wins where he was right on the front

02:00end.

02:00He's going to have to go farther.

02:01He's going to have to step up, but he's been pretty honest and he earned a nice speed

02:05figure when he won that last race.

02:07He could be the now horse.

02:09Now that last race, he broke sharp and got kind of an easy win and his win back on June

02:1427th, it was a favorable racetrack for what he did, but he's run some good races.

02:18His only, you know, the debut effort, Dale does not win a lot first at first asking.

02:23He feels like the now horse to me and one that I think will run a big race.

02:27Barnes, the number three is a grade two winner, but he's over his last four feels like seven

02:32furlong should be a perfect distance for him.

02:35He ran third in the Jerkins two starts back, but here he is Scott at parks in the gallant

02:41bob.

02:42He's like 15 lengths out of it.

02:44For some reason in this race, he had never been that far back.

02:47Maybe he didn't get over the surface all that well, but it was a little strange because

02:51he's a horse who was very good early in his career.

02:54He's always seemed like he's been a little bit of a, like maybe like a head case or a

02:59horse.

02:59Who's not the easiest to train all the time.

03:02I mean, on paper, he's supposed to win that race.

03:04And on paper, there might be five horses in here who are better than every horse he faced

03:09in the gallant bob, but the race does set up for him with speed.

03:13I keep going back and forth with him.

03:15I didn't know what to do.

03:16What do you think about Barnes?

03:18Yeah.

03:18He's a fade for me because of what his price is going to be.

03:21I love that.

03:22There's actual reasons to make excuses for the fact since when does a bad Baffert horse not

03:26show speed when shipping East this horse was the Derby favorite or second choice, along

03:32with patch Adams for a while early on, he just has not gotten better.

03:37And in fact, he's probably regressed.

03:39He ran a good race in the Jerkins.

03:40I understand, but he wasn't winning that race.

03:43I just don't trust him to win races at this point.

03:47Completely agree.

03:48And I want a better price than you would be willing to get.

03:50Then you're going to get on him in a spot like this.

03:52We moved to Owen almighty Scott.

03:54He ran in the Kentucky Derby.

03:55He actually ran pretty well when he finished fifth there.

03:58You could just see with him.

03:59He's not wanted to go farther than about a mile in the Robert Hilton Memorial.

04:04Last time out, he was at Churchill.

04:06Maybe he didn't like that.

04:07He was at a Charlestown, excuse me.

04:09And maybe he didn't like the boring style racetrack over there.

04:12So you can perhaps make an excuse for him last time out.

04:15I just don't really know what trip is he going to get.

04:17Is he going to be off the pace and close?

04:19Cause he hasn't really done that a whole lot in his career.

04:21Yeah.

04:22I don't know.

04:22This is another horse that was really highly regarded as a two-year-old.

04:25And now you're trying to bring him back off of a couple, you know, the Derby was fine.

04:29He didn't run great in the bluegrass.

04:31I think he ran huge at Tampa in the Tampa Derby and hasn't gotten back to that.

04:35You know, he's got the upside to win this race.

04:37So it would be price dependent for me.

04:39Scott, I know we have a replay to watch of Captain Cook's runner-up effort in the Jerkins.

04:44I don't really want to watch it though, because I needed Captain Cook that day at 20 to 1.

04:48And he ran a great race.

04:50He was just second best that day.

04:52Patch Adams kind of moves up through the rail.

04:54He has speed.

04:55He's drawn well to sit off.

04:57I'm hoping he can sit off a little bit in here, because I think with the outside draw, that's what he'll do.

05:02But there is a good amount of other speed in here.

05:04That would be my only concern with him.

05:07I just think he's the classiest horse in the field right now, and he's doing the best in the field.

05:11What do you think about Captain Cook?

05:13Yeah, I had him that day too, as believable or unbelievable as that is.

05:16But yeah, I think with the blinkers off, he'll be able to relax just often.

05:20Todd Pletcher had him last time, took it off.

05:22This horse sold for 4.10 last year at the Keeneland Horses of Racing Age sale.

05:27He's serious.

05:28I don't think he's very beatable in this spot.

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