First Lady Stakes Preview: Insights on Betting Odds & Picks

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00:00we start with the grade one first lady this is going to be race number eight on saturday october

00:05the 4th and we'll kick things off with a horse who actually won a grade one at keeneland back

00:10in april against a pretty good field she got a little lucky that day did choise yeah she should

00:15have been disqualified when she won the jenny wiley she impacted excellent truth but they

00:21kept her up that day scott i needed her so i was fine that they kept her up that day uh but she

00:26she's probably a better fit in a level like this i think she might have been facing pretty tough

00:31horses in the diana yeah she gets the cut back as well she definitely was facing two of the probably

00:36better in the division if not the top of the division here in the states choice yeah she makes

00:41a lot of sense in here obviously rakia is a grade three winner she's a horse who should be forward

00:46she sat second last time out moved to the lead but she got run down by dynamic pricing and dynamic

00:52pricing looks like one of the major players in here yeah rakia is an interesting player to me

00:56you put johnny v up you have an inside post and the pace is a little murky in here so i can see rakia

01:02really making uh making a putting put in a good effort game effort to finish second last out even

01:07though no match for the wear i was really high on her last year when she came to del mar and she won

01:11that gold to kova and i was hoping for more from her and she just had kind of an unlucky year she

01:16hasn't really been able to string races together but there's certainly ability and i think we can both

01:21agree that the next horse has a lot of ability scott that's nanda dea who is a group one winner in uh

01:26in argentina comes over to the u.s and has been impressive in two starts both wins she beat softer

01:31company but she did it really impressive visually she's had some time off now but man she's had all

01:38of august and september to work so it seems like she's ready to rock for this race nacho correa is the

01:43trainer long time argentinian based been over in the states had a successful career i could talk about this

01:49horse for a long time a lot of good things on paper but the narrative is there too he's retiring

01:54at the end of the year heading back to argentina it feels like he's got this horse ready to roll as

01:59well as she could simply in front is a multiple graded stakes winner she comes off a pretty good

02:04effort when she ran second over at kentucky down scott i'm not sure if she's quite at this level but

02:10she's in pretty nice form right now i want to give her that she's had a lot she didn't have a lot

02:15of luck last year she's had more luck this year but she can finish i found that interesting the pace

02:20projector has her as the late pace chiclet instead of dynamic pricing and we'll talk about now i

02:25question that a little bit dynamic pricing is a top contender grade one winner it's kind of

02:30interesting that coming off of a grade one win and then a third place in the grade one diana

02:34dropped her into a lot softer spot but she wins that race sometimes i think with chad brown he has so

02:40many horses he just kind of tries to separate them a little bit so they're not all just running

02:45against each other she just looks like she fits this field really well there's some pace in here

02:50to chase she should get a nice setup a lot of positives about her except for the fact she'll

02:55probably be bet and she'll probably be a short price well her trainer chad brown has won this race

03:00seven straight years this is one of the two he has entered and both of them are likely to take money

03:05but that's relative in something like this if you think of a futures pool where there's no

03:10specific favorite that really narrows it down because even the favorites in this race aren't

03:14going to be too short a price that's a really good point i mean you're probably going to be in the

03:17three-ish three and a half-ish to one range on some of the shorter prices in here simmering is the

03:23next one we go to scott simmering is a multiple group stakes winner this one comes in most recently

03:28from france and ireland but oh for the last seven so not coming in right now in the best of form

03:34yeah the two-year-old form looks good i mean it was good also has never run over a firm ground that

03:39could be a positive but we don't know i don't have a lot of things to say positively other than that

03:44she's been facing really good company and that puts her in some sort of mix when she comes to the

03:49states heredia is the number seven she's a multiple graded stakes winner um she's still kind of lightly

03:56raced for a six-year-old mare especially in the u.s we've only seen her run a few times she had this

04:01big gap of uh almost a two-year layoff and we're looking at her most recent victory this is in the

04:06grade two yellow ribbon grand motion has done a really nice job with her like there's obviously

04:11some ability and some talent there i'm just a little i'm curious if this is the spot for her

04:16right now at this moment but i do think she's like an underneath type horse that would not shock me if

04:22she hits the board i just don't know if she's quite good enough to beat a full field like this

04:26well she rode a good rail with an easy lead last out against lesser but interesting i didn't really

04:32have this horse on my radar but our colleague mike beard did based on the back class and kind of the

04:37idea that she's going to be a really good price here she's won some big races and maybe you know

04:42this is a spot that she's going to be peaking if you like dynamic pricing a little bit she wasn't all

04:47that far behind dynamic pricing when they faced off each against each other and she should be a much

04:52bigger price than dynamic pricing so yeah if you like her a little bit you will likely get rewarded

04:57in here pin up betty scott is a multiple graded stakes winner but just loves churchill downs right

05:02i think all four of her career victories are at churchill downs she does really seem like that's

05:07where she steps up and runs her best races i think she's up against it not only from map from a class

05:12perspective a course perspective i think she wants to go a little bit shorter i'm not a fan of her in

05:17this spot although i respect her we move to suggest the number nine she was inside uh she was about

05:23three or four lengths off and she got caught in between horses she got shuffled back a little bit

05:27she lost some positioning on the inside uh you go back to a few starts in the just a game when she

05:33was behind dynamic pricing and uh and special one she had legitimate trouble that day scott i think

05:38you could put a line right through it seems like a horse who should be forwardly placed um you know

05:43overall you kind of look at her body of work there are only a couple poor performances that

05:47kind of cross out otherwise she shows her speed she puts herself in it i just hope she doesn't get

05:53bet all that much from these connections because it's a chad brown flavian pratt runner but i think

05:58she fits pretty well with this group what do you think about suggesta in here well she does she has

06:02a win over the course she should get a good trip she's the other chad brown one of the other two

06:06will take money though in my opinion ozara is a horse who i was never really sure how good she was

06:12she is so honest though and she has a great running style scott where she just puts herself

06:18in every race she sits about a couple lengths out of it so she's always in striking range she really

06:24likes saratoga and she got good up at saratoga this year and you know they'll step her up and

06:29take a shot and see if she you know is able to compete with grade one company right now well your

06:33guest this week on the off the track podcast right miguel yeah absolutely both of those got a really good

06:39trip last out but i don't really doubt what he's been throwing out on the track right now

06:43she will need another good trip but she's coming in the race in her best form we have great generation

06:48who comes in uh most recently from races at newberry and ascot does have a group three win a few starts

06:56back scott what do you think about this irish bread tough post i don't know a lot about her i understand

07:01that she's been facing very good company but that post makes her tough to back although if you like

07:06her you're probably going to get paid pretty well if she performs we round things out with jody's

07:10pride grade two winner another one though with just that wide wide trip and you're trying to figure

07:15out what kind of trip do they take her all the way back which is something they don't want to do with

07:20her she doesn't want to come from way out of it or do they go to the lead and then she has to work

07:23too hard i'm just worried about the trip for her scott i'm worried about the trip i'm worried if we

07:28haven't seen the best of her maybe she peaked early you can make the argument she might want the turf

07:32but jody's pride not for me in this spot

07:34you

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