- 6 weeks ago
- #agendaawani
With the US-China rivalry intensifying, the world seems to be edging toward a bifurcated global economy. What does this mean for middle and smaller powers caught in between the giants? #AgendaAWANI tonight at 9pm.
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00:00Selamat menikmati
00:30pelindungan perdagangan dengan kebangkitan AI dan teknologi
00:32dengan kebangkitan nasionalisme di peringkat antarabangsa
00:36Semua itu menjadi cabaran khasnya untuk negara-negara
00:39membangun Suti Malaysia untuk terus mengecapi kemajuan
00:42secara konsisten dan kekal berdaya saing di peringkat global
00:46Saya ingin melalusuri perbincangan ini dan juga cabaran-cabaran ini
00:49bersama dengan ketemu kita dalam episod pada kali ini
00:52Maroon Khairus adalah pengarah urusan untuk WEF
00:54di mana beliau mengetuai pusat wilayah perdagangan dan geopolitik WEF
00:59dan Maroon menyelia penglibatan WEF dengan sektor awam
01:02dan membentuk agenda WEF mengenai perdagangan, pelaburan
01:07dan juga hal ehwal geopolitik
01:09dan izinkan saya untuk mengalihkan perbualan ini ke dalam bahasa Inggeris
01:13untuk berbual dengan Maroon
01:14Maroon, terima kasih banyak untuk bersama kami
01:16Pleasure to be with you, Maroon
01:17So, I see your experience and expertise
01:20and you've done pretty much everything
01:22but we only have about half an hour for this interview
01:24so I have to pick and choose
01:26but I'm going to start with a big picture
01:27Globalization, which we've talked about many times before
01:31Many argue globalization has primarily benefited
01:34advanced economies and countries
01:37So, is globalization redeemable for those who feel left behind
01:42or is it fundamentally flawed?
01:45First of all, Luqman, we have to acknowledge that globalization
01:49has, in its previous form, has helped people across the world
01:55China was able to lift 600 million people out of poverty
02:00thanks in large part to globalization
02:03India started its growth miracle
02:06when it lifted the import rush
02:10that doesn't mean that globalization doesn't have downsides
02:15of course, there were winners and losers
02:17because the proceeds, the gains from globalization
02:21were not fairly distributed within countries
02:26and this is why not only in developing countries
02:29but also in advanced countries
02:31you see today this content related to how
02:34the globalization has developed
02:40Now, we are at a new stage of globalization
02:44If you look at the past
02:47each new wave of globalization was underpinned
02:50by a new wave of technology
02:53We are now at the doorstep of an AI revolution
02:57which means we have a new wave of globalization
03:01which also is an opportunity for us to do better this time
03:05to have a more inclusive, more encompassing globalization
03:12which brings people along and which leaves no one behind
03:16We'll talk about AI in just a second
03:18but as you said, AI is a chance for us to kind of restart
03:21or learn from past mistakes
03:23but there are also things that have been there for a while
03:27and will continue to be there
03:28things like trade policies, global trade
03:31and I think whenever we talk about globalization
03:33leaving people behind or leaving some countries behind
03:35we often point to trade
03:37you see the US is always complaining about trade imbalances etc
03:40so trade policies often tout inclusivity
03:45whether within the people of one country or between countries
03:48but in practice, small fragile economies such as ours still struggle
03:53what structural changes would it take for trade rules to be effective in curbing inequality?
04:01One, you have countries who have been able to make the most of the current trade system
04:09you look at countries like Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand
04:15they've done well because they managed to integrate themselves in regional and global supply chains
04:21if you are not able to do that then the trade system probably doesn't work for you
04:27we also have to point out that often times trade is blamed for the impact of other things
04:36for example technology has changed the nature of jobs in the past
04:43and this is why the map of jobs has also been impacted by that
04:48but of course we can always do better to make sure trade is more inclusive
04:54one aspect is to simplify trade a lot so that SMEs and developing countries can compete on an equal footing
05:05one way to do that is to reduce bureaucracy in trade to make it more accessible
05:10the World Economic Forum including today has been working through its trade tech initiative
05:17which basically aims to digitize a lot of the trade and simplify a lot of the trade processes
05:28so that it is accessible not only to the big international companies
05:32but that also small companies SMEs and companies in developing markets can and are able to benefit from trade and compete on an equal footing
05:44I think that resonates well with the people in this country because more than 90% of the companies here in Malaysia are SMEs
05:51so that's key
05:52I want to zoom out because you mentioned that whenever there are problems brought about by other things like the rise of technology
05:59trade is often blamed but trade is really just one component of it if at all
06:05but the big picture is I guess multilateralism
06:08now I think I'm sure you've heard it many times before
06:11we see what's happening in the US, we see what's happening in some countries in Europe
06:15even in the UK with Brexit a few years back
06:17they said that multilateralism is in decline
06:20so do you think institutions like the WTO, the WEF, the IMF can still
06:26how do you still hold legitimacy and effectiveness in a fragmental world where multilateralism is said to be in decline
06:35or does a global system need overhauling?
06:38first of all there is no efficient alternative to multilateralism
06:44the issues we face in today's world are as interconnected, interwoven as they have ever been
06:51if you take everything from climate change, you know, pollution doesn't start at your own border
06:57by definition it's an international problem
07:01AI, the impact of what happens in one country will reverberate across the world
07:08migration, other issues, they are by definition crossing boundaries
07:14and so you will always need a multilateral framework for addressing that
07:19now do the international organization need reform?
07:24of course they do, the world has changed from the days when they were formed in the late 40s
07:31and so an update is definitely needed
07:35the voice of developing countries need also to be better represented in this fora
07:42there is no doubt about that
07:44to reflect the make-up of the global GDP and the global population that we have today
07:51that doesn't mean though that we throw the baby out with the bathwater
07:55that still means dialogue and international fora are crucial
07:59but in what concerns the word economic forum
08:02you notice that our mission is about public-private cooperation
08:09at a time when you see the international state or the multilateral system in a deadlock
08:17at a time when you see governments more and more intervening in the economy
08:21but also when you see companies being private superpowers especially in tech and in AI
08:28the world economic forum's platform for dialogue is as needed as it's ever been
08:35and so we are committed to continuing that mission
08:39including through dialogue like the one we are hosting here today
08:43and our annual meeting in Davos in January
08:48right, so let's talk about AI
08:51so AI and green technologies obviously are going to or are already reshaping the world economy
08:58but like you said they also have the big potential to deepen divides
09:03like we've seen with some components of globalization
09:08so back to your question or what you were saying earlier
09:12how do we ensure we do it right this time
09:14how do we ensure that the rise of these two phenomenons AI, green technologies and the like
09:19do not repeat the same mistakes of globalization
09:21Luqman, an important thing to point out just when we talk about the impact
09:28the future of jobs report at the forum published in 2025
09:33indicates that 22% of jobs will be impacted by AI by 2030
09:40close to 40% of skills that we have now will need to change by that time to be productive in AI
09:49that shows you the way that you need to follow for AI to be inclusive
09:56and to benefit, to be diffused and to benefit the economy as a whole
10:01the two bottlenecks that we could face related to AI are one energy and electricity
10:07that's what the nervous system of AI is made of
10:13and so policies like the one that have been pushed under Malaysia's chairmanship of ASEAN
10:20related to integrating the region's electricity market are crucial for success in the AI age
10:29and second talent, you're seeing now AI engineers being made offers at the level of the CEOs
10:39we've seen some tech companies pay millions of dollars to some AI engineers
10:44and that tells you how important talent is in this context
10:49and competition for talent is the key determinant of competitiveness in this age
10:55I want to take a minute just to illustrate something related to talent
11:01the average Nobel Prize winner is in the top 5% income distribution of the world
11:09that tells you that 95% of the geniuses that we have
11:15and 95% of the most intelligent people are not being discovered
11:21because they live in the wrong country, they go to the wrong school
11:25or they live in the wrong city
11:27and so the key question is for developing countries
11:32how can we find, develop and nurture the top talent that we have
11:39and I think that's going to be the key factor reworking our education system
11:45reworking how we impart skills to our population
11:49is going to be a key determinant of competitiveness and success in the age of AI
11:54Right
11:56I don't mean to sound cello but I think the argument is that when you want to develop your country
12:06whether in terms of physical infrastructure or its talents or its human capital
12:10there are a lot of things that can and should be done
12:13but inevitably it also involves a lot of capital
12:28because it also takes a lot of money
12:30so we see this vicious cycle throughout history
12:32where you know less endowed countries
12:37so because they have populations that cannot fulfill their potential
12:41like you said, they are being undiscovered
12:43but at the same time they don't have the means to actually elevate the skills
12:48and the capacity of their populations
12:52to actually elevate the status of the country and the economy of the country
12:55so it's like a vicious cycle
12:57so do you think this is a simplistic way of looking at it?
13:00are we condemning poorer nations to stay in the same cycle
13:06because they don't have enough money and they can't get themselves out of this trap?
13:12the financing question is a key one
13:16one aspect of it is that the private sector is a key partner
13:21in the investments needed on that front
13:25and so of course if you're a fragile nation
13:30you need help to be able to attract the necessary investments
13:36and that doesn't mean that developed countries are off the hook
13:42of course they developed countries
13:45but also most countries that are doing well share a responsibility to build partnerships
13:53I'm not saying aid on its own is not enough
13:58but that partnership lens, building partnerships, win-win partnerships
14:03is the way forward to make sure that these least developed countries you mentioned
14:09are not left behind
14:11and so shifting from a framework of aid or handouts to a framework of investment and partnership
14:20that mindset shift I think can make a big difference
14:23but at the same time these countries are sovereign actors as well
14:29they cannot fully rely on the rest
14:34and so they also have a responsibility to boost the competitiveness of their economies
14:39to simplify bureaucracy
14:41to digitise what they can digitise
14:44to be more attractive to private investment
14:48I think this truly is a global phenomenon
14:51even developed economies, so called developed economies
14:54are now looking to refresh their human capital
14:57and reskill their people
15:00and we definitely can relate here in Malaysia
15:02because one of the priorities of the government has always been to
15:06establish population with the right skills
15:10highly skilled population for us to go to the next step to be a high income country
15:14we've got about 10 minutes left Maroon
15:16I have to ask you about the US-China
15:19you know bipolar order that we're increasingly seeing now
15:22well the rivalry is intensifying
15:25are we witnessing the inevitable and probably irreversible rise
15:30of a bifurcated global economy
15:33because of this rivalry
15:34and if so what's the cost for middle powers like Malaysia?
15:37first of all that's a very important question
15:40the first thing to point out is that
15:43the IMF has established an estimate
15:48for what a bifurcated world will look like
15:53and the cost on the world economy would be 7 trillion dollars
15:587% loss in global GDP
16:02a bifurcated technology space would even be higher
16:0712% of GDP
16:09and so of course the most affected countries are those that are caught in the middle
16:16like Malaysia for example that has good trade relations with both sides
16:21open economy
16:22an open economy with good supply chains
16:26well integrated in the world market
16:28good commercial relations with the US
16:31but also a good commercial relation with China
16:34it will have an impact for sure
16:37but at the same time there is reason for optimism
16:40I feel that the previous few months
16:44has shown both countries how interdependent they are
16:49with a big you know there's a billion US dollars a day of trade that takes place between those two countries
16:58so it's not as easy as that to completely decouple
17:01that still means they will have to compete on some issues
17:06but you can find areas where collaboration and coordination still possible
17:13which should minimize the risk to the rest of the world
17:18now what countries like Malaysia can do
17:21and I think they've done very effectively
17:25is to balance keep the balance between the two
17:28but also a good solution is to deepen
17:31to look within your own region
17:33if global trade is stagnating
17:37it's a good incentive to further deepen regional trade
17:41and trade within ASEAN
17:43a quarter of ASEAN trade happens within the bloc
17:47that compares to two thirds in the EU
17:50so there is a big upside to further deepening at the regional level
17:55and especially on the digital economy front
17:59I started off with a big picture kind of question
18:02I want to end with one as well
18:04how do you reconcile the friction or the tension
18:10or whatever word that you think is fair
18:12between the WEF's mission of global cooperation
18:16and also the reality that many governments are now
18:19unfortunately doubling down on nationalism
18:22we are shifting to a world that is now more sovereignty first let's say
18:30and where sovereignty is playing a bigger role
18:32and there has always been phases in history
18:36where sovereignty has risen on the agenda and then decreased
18:41but that doesn't clash necessarily with global collaboration
18:46you can still collaborate with others while taking your own interest into consideration
18:55that's what real collaboration, durable collaboration
18:59has to be anchored in the national interest
19:02and in this context I would argue the forum is needed even more
19:07so when multilateral fora are going a bit slower
19:13and when direct dialogue is happening less frequently
19:18to bridge those gaps and build that dialogue
19:21and I give you just one example that we've been doing over the past year
19:25we have been convening a group of CEOs, academics, business leaders, experts
19:33in formal group from both China and the US
19:37to keep the channels open between these groups
19:40as even when formal channels are not open
19:45and now we are in a more optimistic phase
19:48we saw yesterday for example an agreement on TikTok in the US
19:54so there are indications that there could be a more positive way forward for the G2
20:03but also for the global economy
20:06right
20:07do you think what we are seeing is cyclical?
20:10because if you look at probably the vast majority of modern human history
20:14you see this, you see sovereignty first, you see nationalism, you see world wars etc
20:19and we come to a point where we were kind of enlightened
20:22some call it the enlightenment age
20:24maybe starting in the 80s, 90s we embraced globalisation
20:27and then that went well for 20 or 30 years
20:29and then now we are back here where a lot of countries are re-questioning globalisation
20:34do you think this is just an aberration?
20:37because the average 20 year old now in Malaysia and I am sure the world over
20:40who has just finished studying, who has just entered the job market are not concerned
20:44and said I am looking at the world and it is like this
20:46it is becoming bifurcated, it is becoming divergent, it is getting harder to get a job
20:51it is getting harder to get a good pay
20:54is it going to be okay for me in 20 or 30 years?
20:57so for people like that, for the future generation, what do you say to them?
21:01I would say it is a different world
21:04the 80s and 90s were more, especially the 90s were a unipolar world
21:11where you had one big power that was able to in a way set the agenda on the global stage
21:19and the others followed
21:21this world is more multipolar or we are moving in that direction
21:26and you don't have a single power
21:28you still have the US as the biggest economy
21:31but there are now many economies, also many regions, many middle powers
21:38that are vying and asserting their influence
21:42and so what I would say is that
21:45it is a different world from the one where we grew up
21:49it is not necessarily worst
21:52and you can still find a way to, you know, as you were saying about graduates
21:59that doesn't necessarily decrease your opportunities
22:02because there is a premium now
22:04on being able to navigate different systems, different cultures, different regions
22:11and Malaysia is perfectly set up for this
22:14and so the question then becomes how do you turn that situation into an advantage for you
22:21and into an advantage for your country and your region
22:25Right, so what's next for the WEF?
22:27What's next? We are very much looking forward to our annual meeting in Davos
22:34we are looking forward to strong participation from Malaysia but also ASEAN in January
22:40and it will be an important milestone at the beginning of next year
22:46for continuing to facilitate the dialogue between countries
22:50but also between the public sector and the private sector
22:54because for any of the big global challenges we are faced with
23:00the private sector is a key partner and a key part of the solution
23:05Right, Maroon, thank you very much
23:07Thank you, Luqman
23:08at least now I can tell my kids to not be afraid of AI and robots to take their jobs
23:12if policies are in place to ensure that those technologies actually augment
23:16and improve our quality of life
23:18and if they are well equipped for that, yes, of course
23:22I think back to your message it all starts with education
23:24I guess first and foremost whatever country you are in, right?
23:27Thank you so much Maroon Kairous
23:29and I wish you the best of luck in what the WEF does
23:32of course there will be challenges
23:34but the world is a better place with WEF and people like you in it
23:38Thank you so much for all
23:40Thank you so much for all
23:42Thank you so much for all
23:44Thank you so much for all
23:46Thank you so much for all
23:52Thank you so much for all
23:54kembangan ataupun pertumbuhan ekonomi negara yang juga pada masa yang sama menjadi peluang untuk bertumbuh dan juga menjadi ekonomi maju, berdaya tahan dan juga berpendapatan tinggi.
24:05Terima kasih kepada semua dan sekian saja siaran agenda awal ini dari sisi Dialog Perniagaan Mengenai Ekonomi Digital ASEAN 2025 Anjuran Forum Ekonomi Selunia atau WF.
24:15Jumpa lagi dalam episod seterusnya. Assalamualaikum dan salam sejahtera.
24:24Terima kasih kerana menonton!
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