- 8 months ago
Can ASEAN balance its relations with China and the GCC amid rising multipolar competition? Tune in as we unpack emerging alliances and strategic recalibrations shaping Asia’s future.
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00:00Hello and good afternoon. I'm Melissa Idris. This is Buletin Awanihas ASEAN.
00:20All eyes of course are on the ASEAN Summit, especially on the ASEAN GCC China Economic Summit
00:28which will be taking place today and joining me in the studio to help us make sense of what it is,
00:35what it means and what's next is Professor Emeritus Dr Wu Wing Tai who is a Distinguished
00:43Professor Emeritus for University of California, California Davis as well. He's also, he wears many
00:50hats and the other hat he wears is a University Chair Professor at the China Economic Research
00:57Institute at Liaoning University. He's also a Visiting Professor for University Malaya and a
01:03Research Professor at Sunway University. Prof Wu, thank you so much for joining me in the studio
01:09today. You have come straight from KLCC right to our studios to talk a little bit about the ASEAN
01:16GCC Summit that happened this morning and what to expect about the ASEAN GCC China Summit. But before
01:23we get into today's proceedings, I'm quite curious to zoom out and maybe take stock a little bit
01:29about ASEAN as a regional bloc. I mean there are some who say ASEAN is a glorified talk shop that is
01:40actually too polite to be powerful and I'm curious to know what you think about that. What's your take?
01:46I think that description is inaccurate in that it fails to understand that ASEAN is no more of a talk
02:02shop than the United Nations is. Both ASEAN and United Nations were not designed to be regional government
02:12or global government. In fact, both ASEAN and the United Nations are designed such that members
02:22retain their sovereignty and are free to withdraw from the organization. In other words, you cannot
02:32fight the equivalent of the American civil war when some states choose to leave, which is why
02:38the ASEAN and the United Nations do not have independent taxing powers. People pay membership
02:50contributions when they are part of it and when they want out, they can get out. In such an organization,
02:59it is not a government. It is not meant to do the normal things that a government does.
03:06It is not meant to govern. So it is unfair in that. But I think at a deeper level, you have
03:13to make a difference between, to recognize that there are two types of workshops, or talk
03:19shops. The first type of talk shop is the one that is hypocritical in nature, where people
03:28make pronouncement commitments to lofty goals, and they have no intention to do any of them.
03:36Okay, that's one of them. The other one is where there's the intention, the desire, but circumstances
03:44do not permit them to realize it. The best example is the fund that is often made of the 1971
03:55declaration of ASEAN being a zone of peace, freedom, and neutrality. People would say,
04:06what peace? You look at all the resolutions have been passed on Myanmar, asking them to stop
04:13the civil war. And it has continued. The truth is, ASEAN is not a government. And we give a country
04:25full sovereignty. We don't interfere. We cannot send an army to impose peace on Myanmar. It is something
04:34that would have to be resolved domestically. But ASEAN, of course, comes up with practical solutions
04:40how to do it. More importantly, ASEAN has become less of a talk shop, as evidenced by what happened
04:51yesterday at the ASEAN summits. Because there are some problems that can only be solved at the
04:58regional level. Specifically, all of the ASEAN countries signed the Paris Climate Treaty. So we all commit to
05:06achieving net zero emissions. And that means we all have to use green energy. No more use of coal and oil
05:15to produce energy. So we have to depend on solar power, hydropower, and other renewable forms of energy.
05:25What we do know is, it makes no sense for everybody to be self-sufficient in green energy.
05:38Because producing solar energy is a lot more expensive in Singapore than in Malaysia. So what that means is,
05:47we've got to have a regional way of allowing the cheapest producer in ASEAN to sell to the expensive producer.
05:56And that's why we need an ASEAN power grid to connect the pipes.
06:01So those are very lofty ambitions, to have the ASEAN power grid, to have regional cooperation to tackle the climate crisis.
06:10But that lofty ambition has been put into action as of yesterday. Yesterday, ASEAN gave the mandate to the ASEAN Center for Energy
06:22to draw up a plan, to draw up options of how to do it. So we have gone beyond talking to saying,
06:30let's look at the design so that we can decide. So we have gone less to more than just being a talk show.
06:37So you are optimistic that there will be progress, there will be concrete actions beyond communiques.
06:46Has that happened in the past? Did you see progress of ASEAN's wins in the past that convince you it's more than a talk shop?
06:55Oh, what I just told you about the ASEAN power grid is just the latest success.
07:00The fact that ASEAN has signed the RCEP, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership with China, Korea, and Japan, and Australia, and New Zealand,
07:19is because ASEAN as a block was a big market that was attractive to our North East neighbours and to our Southern Pacific neighbours.
07:34So yes, ASEAN has gone beyond a talk shop for quite a while now, especially after the Asian financial crisis.
07:43Now, in this 46th summit, we're also having the second ASEAN GCC Summit and the inaugural ASEAN GCC and China Summit.
07:57I would like to know what you make of this grouping. A lot of attention has been put on this gathering of economic powers.
08:09Why do you think it's happening now? What does the timing tell us about why these new global economic alliances are forming?
08:17Well, one thing is that ASEAN over time has more confidence in ASEAN as an organisation moving forward.
08:29In other words, they look from the European experience that together as a group, we can engage with outsiders on better terms than before.
08:55So they have chose to engage with the GCC for two very good reasons.
09:02Number one, the GCC is a large market. It's a bunch of very rich countries.
09:09And it is nice to sell things to rich people because they can pay higher prices, number one.
09:15Number two, they have a lot of wealth that they need to invest prudently.
09:25And the reason they have not done it much in Malaysia yet is because they don't know about us.
09:32But now, given the uncertainty in America, you really got to think about whether you should put your money in America.
09:40Look at what Moody, S&P have done recently.
09:48They have downgraded U.S. government bonds below AAA.
09:54In other words, what used to be safe is not so safe anymore.
09:59And this is a dynamic region, a good place to invest.
10:06And the education level in this country makes a labour force that is increasingly productive.
10:14So for a very good reason that the GCC is interested in engaging us.
10:20And possibly another reason that the GCC is also interested in engaging with us,
10:30and the same reason for us, is that they want to project a more neutral image.
10:38A more neutral image?
10:40Image to the world in this time of the new Cold War between U.S. and China.
10:47Basically, the GCC, like ASEAN, wants to be friends with everybody.
10:55And remember, Donald Trump was just in the GCC.
10:58And remember, he got this aeroplane from Qatar as the gift.
11:03Would you describe that as a successful visit for Donald Trump and the Gulf nations that he visited?
11:11Who was the bigger winner in that?
11:13I think they were both winners.
11:17And Donald Trump won himself an aeroplane.
11:22So that really tells you that relationship is off to a flying start.
11:28And he had...
11:31The very good thing I like about the GCC summit
11:34is that they are now able to explain to Donald Trump in a manner among friends
11:43that the Palestine question has to be addressed
11:47in order to bring peace to the Middle East.
11:52And what is keeping Palestine from being realized
12:00is because of the U.S. veto in the United Nations.
12:05Security Council.
12:05No one else in the Security Council vetoes it.
12:09The vote in the General Assembly
12:11will be overwhelmingly for membership.
12:14The General Assembly passed the two-state solution
12:17some time ago, and it's been continually reaffirmed.
12:21So I think in this case,
12:23the GCC countries were able to have the time
12:29in a goods-friendly setting
12:32to explain to Donald Trump
12:34that it is in the best enlightened interest of the United States
12:38as well as a moral imperative
12:42to stop blocking the two-state solution
12:46to the Palestine problems.
12:49Okay. So we have, within a short space of time,
12:54the GCC meeting with Donald Trump,
12:57meeting with the U.S.
12:58And now...
13:00Meeting with us.
13:01In Malaysia as Chair of ASEAN, meeting ASEAN.
13:05And also China is now in the picture.
13:08We have the ASEAN-GCC China Economic Summit,
13:11the very first one.
13:12What do you make of this trilateral arrangement or alignment
13:18and the fact that the GCC is meeting both the U.S. and China
13:22at our behest, at our hosting?
13:27I think it is a good way for the GCC to engage with China
13:35on geostrategic issues,
13:39largely because they are here at this conference,
13:45at the invitation of Malaysia.
13:47And so is China.
13:52As I've said before,
13:54and you had agreed,
13:57that the GCC wants to be a friend to everybody.
14:01Like, look, Saudi Arabia has just got an agreement with Iran
14:07to be able to move to a more normal diplomatic relationship.
14:16Why?
14:17Because Saudi Arabia doesn't want to take...
14:21be automatically on the U.S. side on everything.
14:25It wants to have its own decision-making power.
14:29And look at Malaysia.
14:32Malaysia likes the GCC to be present
14:34because GCC is a proven friend of the United States.
14:39And ASEAN, if you look at it,
14:42quite a number of its members have become more active
14:45in BRICS activities.
14:48And BRICS, you know, with the R and the C,
14:52it seems like we are getting more antagonistic.
14:56No, no, no.
14:56We are good friends of the good friends of the United States.
15:02So this is very symbolic.
15:05That GCC and China are meeting in a neutral setting
15:11and Malaysia is showing that it is a friend to both sides.
15:18Okay.
15:19But are we just the kind of...
15:21the party planner slash host in this arrangement?
15:28Do we get a benefit out of this new realignment
15:32or this trilateral axis of cooperation?
15:35Are we at risk of China being the primary agenda setter here
15:43and the GCC having all the oil money and backing there
15:48being a bigger player than we are?
15:50Will ASEAN have a voice in this new threesome?
15:55Oh, yes.
15:57I think the fact that GCC and ASEAN are engaging with China
16:05is a sign that both GCC and ASEAN realize
16:14that together they have enough economic weight
16:21as well as political weight,
16:24a geostrategic weight
16:25to be able to tell China
16:28that please recognize us as a neutral player
16:32in the new Cold War.
16:34And I think that is one message
16:38that would come true.
16:41The fact that we are engaging with China
16:44shows that we are very happy
16:48to continue doing business with them
16:51just as GCC is very happy doing business
16:56and buying more airplanes from America.
17:00And we are happy to do business with China
17:03as we continue to ship a tremendous amount
17:07of sophisticated chips from Penang to California.
17:12Is there beyond the economic cooperation?
17:16And it's an interesting and, you know,
17:20the prospects for cooperation are huge.
17:24And it's, you know, I think it's going to be
17:26a great alignment of these three regional blocks.
17:32But when we think about going beyond economic cooperation,
17:37is there something more there?
17:38Could there be a new Global South-led framework?
17:44If we think about these three big regional economies cooperating,
17:50could that eventually rival Western-led institutions?
17:55I think the important goal is to keep the peace.
18:03And what is threatening the peace?
18:06What is threatening the peace is the new Cold War
18:10with US on one side
18:14and the limitless friendship between China and Russia
18:19on the other side.
18:21What we want is to do that these two people,
18:26these two groups, don't ever get into war.
18:29And these people also understand they do not want a war.
18:33And because they do not want a war,
18:36they know that eventually they will have to settle down
18:40into a great spheres of influence.
18:43This is my part of the world.
18:45This is your part of the world.
18:47This is something that we have talked about between us.
18:51But this is actually now recognised on today's New York Times.
18:57It has reported that Donald Trump sees a world
19:02of three spheres of influence.
19:05United States, China and Russia.
19:08What does that mean?
19:11That means that they know that if this is what the final shape
19:14of the world is going to be,
19:16let us expand our spheres of influence as fast as possible.
19:20That is why the United States says,
19:23Canada should be part of us,
19:25Greenland should be part of us,
19:27and we will take Gaza and Panama too.
19:31So because they are in this aggressive expansion of spheres of influence,
19:39this is something that ASEAN certainly does not want to be a pawn
19:45in the proxy war between them.
19:47Do we need to pick a sphere of influence to gravitate towards?
19:53How do we avoid becoming this passive middle power or worse,
19:59a convenient transit lounge for some of these spheres of influence?
20:05That is a big worry which I'm sure our leaders have thought about.
20:15And to be able to be neutral, the best would be to be neutral.
20:21But neutrality is something that has to be earned
20:25rather than given on demand.
20:30How can you earn it?
20:32You are big enough such that they have to concede that right to you.
20:39ASEAN is too small to have the critical mass,
20:42to have population and GDP.
20:45So if you don't have critical mass,
20:48then you just are in a critical mass.
20:50A critical mass means
20:54it's not enough to hang together.
21:00You have to be a big enough group,
21:02such as the other side accepts you.
21:04Okay, yes.
21:04And this is where I think
21:06we've got to quickly form
21:08a neutral coalition fast enough.
21:12And to form that neutral coalition fast enough,
21:15it has to be a north-south coalition of middle powers
21:20rather than just a global south solution.
21:25So the Europeans have their weeks scared out of them
21:31by Donald Trump switching from Zelensky to Putin.
21:36And now Donald Trump said,
21:37I'm not going to be interested in support,
21:41in defending Europe because I'm going to pivot towards Asia.
21:46I'm going to transfer military assets
21:48from the Atlantic to the Pacific.
21:52The kind of pivot we want to see
21:55should be by the Europeans and by East Asia.
22:00We want an Atlantic-Pacific partnership
22:05in sustainable development.
22:08This Atlantic-Pacific sustainability partnership
22:15would, first of all,
22:18maintain free trade within the group
22:21so that if China and the US
22:23do want to engage in free trade,
22:25that's fine, but we will do it.
22:26We will maintain what is of the WTO
22:29for the rest of us.
22:31And we will also maintain
22:32what that is of the United Nations
22:35in its peacekeeping mission.
22:37And fighting climate change,
22:40fighting pandemics.
22:43This is what we will do.
22:46And the third thing that,
22:47why we want to have a North-South coalition
22:49is so that we can afford to help for the,
22:55we've got to have a situation
22:57where the rich members help the poor members
23:00to grow and become bigger.
23:03Largely because why do poor people join gangs?
23:10It is because they are bribed into joining gangs.
23:14So they'll be bribed into joining the spheres of influence.
23:18So what we need is the global North countries
23:25like Japan, Korea, the European Union,
23:28and Singapore to help Southeast Asia
23:32to develop in a sustainable manner.
23:36Is it feasible, though, Prof Wu?
23:39I mean, when we think about,
23:42the ideal is to have these countries band together
23:45and really put forth, you know,
23:48the principles of free trade and cooperation
23:50and mutual economic benefit and development.
23:53But every country for itself in this world,
23:57sometimes it feels.
23:58So is it feasible to have a caucus of buffer states
24:03from these spheres of influence?
24:06The proof is happening right now.
24:09Macron is here in Asia.
24:12He's visiting at least three countries.
24:17The most important one is he's visiting Indonesia,
24:20which is the Abang of Asia.
24:22And I forgot which other two countries he was,
24:27but too bad he's not visiting Malaysia.
24:29But he will get to hear about us and will come here.
24:32But the important thing is,
24:35Macron has already started the process.
24:37So this is not a matter of unrequited love.
24:42The other side is just as eager as we should be.
24:48OK. All right.
24:50I just want to bring it back to the summit.
24:53As the 46th ASEAN Summit wraps up,
24:57when the glow of the summit dims,
25:00when the summit is over,
25:02are there practical outcomes
25:04that you will continue to watch out for?
25:08Or are you concerned that this could be
25:10just another round of beautifully written communiques?
25:14I think, as I said,
25:19this particular meeting has resulted in
25:22the mandate to the ASEAN Energy Centre
25:26to draw up plans for the ASEAN power grid.
25:33There are other things that will be pursued.
25:37Like, for example,
25:38we want to build an ASEAN community,
25:40which means that we have to begin a programme
25:45that allows people to know each other
25:49and is much better when they do it when they are young.
25:52What we need is to be able to form
25:55the equivalent of the EU Erasmus programme.
26:00The Erasmus programmes allow university students
26:04to take courses in other member states
26:08such that the credits are mutually recognised
26:12so that you could take some units in Italy
26:16and then you can go to school in Sweden
26:19and then you can go to school in Spain
26:21and be able to have it.
26:24So, we should promote this particular programme
26:30among our young people.
26:34The second one is
26:35we should build up our infrastructure
26:39to be better connected with each other.
26:44One of them that comes most easily to mind
26:47is the high-speed rail
26:51between Singapore and Penang.
26:53And it always behooves me
26:56to hear commentators pointing out
27:00that the sales of the ticket
27:05would not be able to justify
27:07building the high-speed rail
27:10between Singapore and Penang.
27:14The truth is
27:15there is no high-speed rail in the world
27:21that is supported
27:22by sales of tickets.
27:25Just like there are no subway services,
27:29systems in the world
27:30that are supported by ticket sales.
27:35They are supported by the fact
27:37that the subway system
27:43raise the land value of many regions
27:50and you collect higher property taxes
27:54from the higher land value.
27:57And that you are able to use that money
28:02to finance the operations of the subway system.
28:07Similarly, just think of
28:10how much the value of land in Ipoh
28:13would rise
28:14if you go from Ipoh to Kuala Lumpur,
28:18downtown to downtown,
28:19in less than an hour and a half.
28:23Well, that's shorter than my commute
28:25to the office today.
28:26Well, thank you so much
28:27for being on the show with me
28:29and sharing some of your insights,
28:31Professor Woods.
28:31Always a pleasure to talk to you.
28:33Glad to be here.
28:34Well, our coverage of the 46th ASEAN Summit
28:38continues with my colleagues
28:40who are reporting live from KLCC.
28:44But that's it from me here in the studio.
28:47I'm Melissa Idris.
28:48Thank you so much for watching, folks.
28:50Bye.
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