- 1 year ago
ASEAN 2025. Between superpower rivalry and new alliances, what’s ASEAN’s next move? Find out at 9pm.
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00:00This is Agenda Awani with me, Nailah Huda.
00:17And as the ASEAN Summit returns to Kuala Lumpur, all eyes are on Malaysia.
00:22Not just as the host, but as Chair of ASEAN at a time when the region is facing serious geopolitical shifts
00:28with global tensions flaring, tariffs from Washington and deepening influence from China,
00:35we may just be looking at ASEAN walking an impossible tightrope,
00:38trying to stay neutral, relevant and united all at the same time.
00:42So on Agenda Awani tonight, we want to have a closer look at what we can expect from the ASEAN Summit next week
00:48and to help us unpack and explain some of these questions,
00:51we have Dr. Julia Rognifard from Taylor's University, Senior Lecturer of the School of Law and Governance at Taylor's University.
00:58Thank you so much, Dr. Julia, for joining us. How are you doing?
01:02I'm doing well. Thank you. Thank you for having me.
01:05Dr. Julia, I think we want to start off with the bigger picture, I guess,
01:10to just have a general idea of what we can look out for at the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur this year
01:17and next week with Malaysia taking the lead as Chair.
01:20What do you think we should look out for?
01:22Well, under Malaysians' Chairmanship, especially, I think the ASEAN Summit is expected to, as we've heard,
01:32to emphasize on unity, economic resilience, regional stability.
01:38And all of this, well, all of this is taking place amidst the rising global uncertainties
01:45that ASEAN members have to grapple with.
01:48And also on the agenda, there is, we have digital economy,
01:53cooperation-stated green transition strategies and trade connectivity issues of developing infrastructure,
02:03infrastructure, and especially the efforts to develop the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement.
02:13Malaysia also is likely to drive discussion on geopolitical neutrality,
02:20and its tensions between the U.S. and China that are currently taking place.
02:25And key deliverables, I guess, might include some progress on ASEAN Centrality,
02:33enhancing infrastructural funding,
02:37deepening partnerships with external partners,
02:41like the plus-three countries to ASEAN,
02:45the Gulf countries, India.
02:47We also have, in what concerns Gulf countries,
02:52there's ASEAN GCC China Summit that's going to take place on 27th of May.
02:59So, I guess we can expect a pragmatic and multilateral tone
03:06focused on reinforcing ASEAN's role as a hub of engagement,
03:12rather than the bloc that is seeking confrontation with external parties,
03:19and the bloc that can show an example in this new emerging multipolar order.
03:30By the way, another area of interest might be of how ASEAN handles the internal divisive issues.
03:39In particular, I refer to Myanmar and issues surrounding South China Sea
03:48without ASEAN needing to sacrifice its unity.
03:53So, I guess the latter one will be the key to ASEAN maintaining its credibility.
04:00You mentioned some really interesting points there,
04:03but before we look at some of the internal issues,
04:05we want to look beyond, and obviously I think the major backdrop for ASEAN
04:10and for any regional organisations this year
04:13will surely be managing or balancing relations between the US and China.
04:18And you mentioned that point on geopolitical neutrality
04:22and how, you know, that's not something new for ASEAN,
04:25but I guess this time around the tensions or the stakes are obviously a lot higher.
04:29How do you think ASEAN is going to navigate that this time around?
04:33Oh, and it's true that ASEAN must tread really carefully
04:36between the situation between US and China.
04:42And its core strategy probably should be to press on the principle of ASEAN neutrality
04:49and avoid being pulled into any direction of any of the parties.
04:54And I think so far it mostly managed to do that.
05:00And we've seen indeed the US-China tensions escalating with Donald Trump
05:07and his administration's tariffs and other divisive actions.
05:13So ASEAN, in turn, has been adopting some of its own hedging strategies.
05:21And rather than choosing sides, we saw an appetite for larger engagement
05:27with external partners or blocs or other middle powers
05:31like Japan, India, European Union, and, well, of course, already mentioned Gulf States.
05:39Internally, ASEAN is going to promote the mechanisms such as East Asia Summit
05:47and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, RCEP,
05:51to keep both US and China engaged on a multilateral basis.
05:58At the same time, ASEAN countries are investing in regional supply chains
06:02to have it more coordinated and less dependent on the external volatility.
06:10ASEAN states seem to be taking the win, the wins where they can get it
06:17out of this instability and the ongoing trade war,
06:21which actually allows them to expand the benefits that they reap
06:27and expand the external partnerships because on the outside,
06:32there's also a larger appetite to engage with the blocs like ASEAN.
06:37And after all, the world is bigger than just the US and China,
06:41even though they're two great powers.
06:46And so there are European Union, Middle East, Latin America,
06:51and they all present markets and opportunity for engagement.
06:55As you said, the world is a lot bigger than just the US and China,
07:00so I try to keep my questions short on the US and will try to move on to other areas.
07:06But just this last one, if we want to quickly look at the US,
07:11an announcement from the US recently talking about trade negotiations
07:15and how they will no longer, I guess, sort of entertain one-on-one trade negotiations
07:22with countries and instead impose unilateral tariffs,
07:26what they've been trying to, I guess, do from day one.
07:31With this in mind, how do you think this is going to go down in ASEAN
07:34and how important is ASEAN unity in facing this?
07:39Or is it time for ASEAN member states to start thinking of their own national interests?
07:44I think ASEAN is going to approach it very pragmatically.
07:50That's what we see signaled by ASEAN's chairman,
07:53Malaysia and other states as well.
07:57I think there is a kind of resentment of being dragged into this
08:02and being accused, like some of the ASEAN countries
08:06are being accused of laundering Chinese goods.
08:09Well, at the same time, we know China as somebody who can adopt and rectify products
08:19and then come up with their own based on the already existing practices.
08:23So you could also think about laundering practice as something that is not completely new.
08:29And indeed, a variation of that laundering practice that we could think of
08:34was done by the U.S. itself when goods and manufacturing was outsourced to other countries
08:41and produced either under companies belonging to those countries
08:45or registered under those countries or just as still American countries
08:51but by exploitation of the cheap labor.
08:55So I think you can apply this analogy here.
08:59It just goes by another name and it was meant to remain competitive on the global market.
09:06So I think that causes large resentment among the Southeast Asian countries
09:12that are accused of such practices like laundering Chinese goods
09:17and they are going to approach it pragmatically
09:20because eventually it boils down to them reaping benefits for themselves economically
09:27and that's the major focus.
09:30So if to put it simply, on the side of ASEAN,
09:34it seems that they are trying to present it as they are doing nothing bad in here.
09:41They are just pursuing their own interests
09:44and they probably will continue to engage in this kind of risk management
09:50especially when the United States behaves like an unpredictable partner
09:56until it changes their course of action.
09:59And here comes the ASEAN's desire to engage into multipolar partnerships.
10:07As you said, there's been a lot more interest from ASEAN
10:12in engaging with other regions, other blocs, other middle powers
10:16and I guess this could interpret a sort of shift away from
10:21whatever mess is going on with the major powers
10:24and there's also been talk about moving away from the US dollar in trade activities
10:29and in Asia, we're seeing not just with ASEAN
10:33but there's been initiatives like the Chiang Mai Initiative, CMIM
10:38a currency swap arrangement that's already been sort of upgraded
10:42or agreed between some of these major countries in Asia with ASEAN.
10:47What do you make of this shift away?
10:50Is this something that, is this a strong signal do you think?
10:53Yes, it's been going for quite a while
10:58that ASEAN has been cautiously exploring the alternative
11:02to the US dollar in its trade activities
11:07and it was driven by both strategic and very practical reasons.
11:14Some member states like Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand
11:18they already have those agreements in place
11:21of trading in national currencies
11:24others like Vietnam and Laos are exploring the possibility of it
11:30and this hasn't started with the recent development
11:34on the American side, on the introduction of tariffs
11:38it hasn't even started with the pressures that we've seen post-2022
11:42with the start of Russia-Ukraine conflict
11:45and the pressures related to abiding
11:49by the Western anti-Russia sanctions
11:53the process started much earlier
11:56and in 2023 ASEAN summit
12:01there was a very strong commitment by ASEAN members
12:05to pursue further the route of de-dollarization
12:09with the volatility of the US dollar
12:12and this must be seen as a part of the wider effort
12:17to reduce exposure to the US financial policy swings
12:22and weaponization of US dollar
12:26including the sanctions as I just mentioned
12:29additionally there was China
12:31which has been promoting its national currency
12:35yuan for trade exchanges
12:38through for example bilateral swap lines
12:42or even digital currency pilots
12:46but of course we need to stay realistic
12:49and acknowledge that the full departure
12:51from the US dollar in trade exchanges
12:55is not possible right now
12:58and of course it's not going to happen overnight
13:02it still will take time for the US dollar to weaken
13:08over time
13:10and the move towards decentralized global financial system
13:15is going to happen gradually
13:16we want to now look within ASEAN
13:34and some of the internal divisive issues
13:36as you mentioned
13:37the Myanmar crisis
13:38disputes in the South China Sea
13:41obviously still unresolved
13:43and I guess being a thorn in the flesh
13:46for a lot of ASEAN member states
13:47do you think we'll see any progress
13:49on these issues during this summit?
13:51definitely those issues are going to be raised
13:54but as we know
13:55there are due to differences within ASEAN itself
13:59the economic standing
14:01the political standing
14:02and their position on those particular matters
14:06it's not going to be an easy conversation
14:09so it's Myanmar
14:12mostly we expect the discussions
14:14on Myanmar crisis
14:15and South China Sea
14:17so for example
14:20on Myanmar crisis
14:22some of the members
14:23like Indonesia, Malaysia
14:25and the Philippines
14:26they pushed for stronger engagement
14:28with Myanmar
14:29and also stronger sanctions
14:31we had an effort
14:33earlier this year
14:35by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim
14:37to engage with Myanmar as well
14:41although I'm not sure
14:42how much it yielded
14:43others still advocate
14:46for very quiet diplomacy
14:48and policy of non-interference
14:50so this has resulted
14:53into not very consistent response
14:56on the part of ASEAN
14:58and to the five-point consensus
15:01actually failing
15:02as some have concluded
15:03similarly
15:06on South China Sea
15:08some of the member states
15:10like Vietnam
15:11and the Philippines
15:12they push for a stronger position
15:14and more unified position
15:16on South China Sea
15:18also because they suffer most
15:19in these encounters with China
15:21on this issue
15:23however
15:23the others
15:24those that are more
15:26in the cloud of Chinese influence
15:28like Cambodia
15:29and Laos
15:31even though they are not claimants
15:32in the South China Sea
15:33but nevertheless
15:34they propose a very quiet position
15:38so it's very hard to achieve consensus here
15:42but anyway
15:43ASEAN still can serve
15:45as a platform
15:46for dialogue
15:47and some progress
15:49we have observed
15:50like some ongoing negotiations
15:53on the code of conduct
15:54on South China Sea
15:56even though
15:57we still see China
15:58trying to pursue
15:59this kind of divide
16:02and rule policy
16:03in the soft version
16:05by which I mean
16:06engaging with
16:07each of the claimant states
16:08on a bilateral basis
16:10on that note
16:12do you think
16:13the concept of
16:14ASEAN centrality
16:15is still relevant
16:16or is there a need
16:17to I guess
16:18sort of go over this
16:19and rethink
16:20what this concept
16:21actually means
16:22especially when
16:23talking about
16:24these divisive issues
16:25there is definitely
16:28some revamping
16:29that the concept
16:30would need
16:31and we hear it
16:32from different quarters
16:34so it's a
16:35good principle
16:36to come back to
16:39when we are talking
16:41about the various crises
16:43and indeed
16:44ASEAN is well positioned
16:46economically
16:48geopolitically
16:49to play a central role
16:52in a number of conflicts
16:54and even play
16:54a substantial role
16:56in the US
16:57mitigating the US-China
16:59tensions
17:00amidst the US-China trade war
17:02but
17:04overall the idea
17:07that the region
17:08might be the driving force
17:10behind
17:12conflict resolution
17:14and also behind
17:15its own
17:16architecture
17:17and modernization
17:19that's very important
17:21so it's not a
17:22passive arena
17:23for competition
17:24of the member states
17:26and others
17:27but it's an actor
17:28with its own agency
17:30so I guess
17:32it requires
17:33some modernization
17:34the concept of centrality
17:35and definitely
17:36strengthening unity
17:37vis-a-vis external partners
17:39if ASEAN wants
17:42to still play
17:44an important role
17:45regionally
17:45and globally
17:46earlier you mentioned
17:49some points
17:50being up on the
17:51ASEAN agenda
17:52for the summit
17:53next week
17:54things like
17:55these internal issues
17:57as well as
17:58engagement
17:58with some
17:59external actors
18:00external countries
18:02or members
18:03like with the
18:04other regional blocs
18:05other middle powers
18:06and whatnot
18:07obviously with US
18:09and China
18:09that's going to be
18:10on top of the agenda
18:10as well
18:11but do you think
18:12that there's anything
18:13missing from the agenda
18:14that should be
18:16I guess
18:17discussed
18:18or at least
18:19being considered
18:20by these member states
18:21I think
18:23the existing agenda
18:25it provides
18:26enough material
18:27for them to discuss
18:29including
18:30the issue
18:31of Myanmar
18:32and South China Sea
18:33again
18:33to be the most
18:35divisive ones
18:36also there is
18:38this addition
18:39to the overall
18:41ASEAN summit
18:42agenda
18:42of the second
18:44ASEAN GCC
18:45China summit
18:47which
18:47is going to
18:49draw a lot
18:50of interest
18:51the previous one
18:52as we remember
18:53did not yield much
18:54but served as a kind
18:56of a platform
18:56for these new
18:57multipolar engagements
18:58so
19:00this is
19:03also a new development
19:04compared to
19:05the previous
19:06ASEAN summits
19:07I don't think
19:10that
19:11Malaysia as a chairman
19:13is going to talk
19:14too much about
19:16other extra regional
19:17issues
19:18like for example
19:19we've been
19:19championing
19:20the
19:21just resolution
19:23of the
19:24Palestinian issue
19:26I don't think
19:26it should be a part
19:27of this ASEAN summit
19:29it's more important
19:31for ASEAN
19:32states to have
19:33some sort of unity
19:34over the issues
19:36that are
19:37need our immediate
19:39attention
19:40and also
19:42maybe somewhere
19:44on the sidelines
19:45it could be discussed
19:46what's the
19:47fallout
19:48of the
19:49Russia
19:51Ukraine
19:51conflict
19:53and how it
19:55echoes
19:55in the region
19:56but
19:57I do not think
19:58also it should be
19:59a part of the
20:00agenda
20:01to necessarily
20:02address
20:03I think it's already
20:04done and settled
20:05because for the
20:05past years
20:06ASEAN members
20:07have been issuing
20:08from
20:09adjoining
20:11the
20:12sanctions
20:13and adopting
20:14this very
20:15pragmatic
20:16except for maybe
20:17Singapore
20:18very pragmatic
20:19stance on this
20:20so I don't think
20:21it requires
20:21any special
20:22official
20:23formal discussion
20:24maybe somewhere
20:25on the sidelines
20:26it will be
20:26attended to
20:27so I think
20:27it's pretty
20:28comprehensive
20:29the green agenda
20:30the digitalization
20:32and trade
20:34and national
20:34currencies
20:35it will help
20:37us test
20:39this year
20:39of how
20:41ASEAN can
20:42modernize itself
20:43resolve conflicts
20:44within itself
20:45and also
20:46how attractive
20:47it is
20:47it will be
20:48demonstrated
20:48how attractive
20:49it is to
20:50the external
20:50partners
20:51to other blocs
20:52you talked about
20:54testing ASEAN
20:55this year
20:55and now
20:56we're coming up
20:57to almost half
20:58of 2025
20:59with Malaysia
20:59as chair
21:01of ASEAN
21:02how do you
21:03think the past
21:03six months
21:04has been
21:05under
21:05or the past
21:06five months
21:06has been
21:07under Malaysia
21:07coming up
21:08to the summit
21:09now
21:09and how do you
21:10think Malaysia
21:10will fare
21:11for the next
21:12half of the year
21:13there have been
21:15a number of
21:16bold moves
21:16undertaken by
21:17Malaysia
21:18and as a chair
21:20and in particular
21:21by Anbar Ibrahim
21:23the prime minister
21:24of the
21:27chairman
21:28of the
21:28ASEAN chairman
21:29like trying
21:30to engage
21:31with Myanmar
21:32which is quite
21:33significant
21:34though
21:34again
21:35not sure
21:36what it yielded
21:37on the Myanmar
21:37side
21:38I think
21:38the sentiment
21:39is that
21:39it's not much
21:40but signaling
21:41of this capacity
21:42to try
21:43and mediate
21:44to persuade
21:45by soft means
21:47it's not nothing
21:48there was
21:49an idea
21:51circulating around
21:53for Malaysia
21:54to try
21:55become
21:56a mediating
21:57party
21:58for the
21:58recent
21:59India
21:59Pakistan
22:00tensions
22:01also
22:02maybe
22:02it didn't
22:03take off
22:03but
22:04that idea
22:05by its own
22:08circulating
22:08around
22:09I think
22:09it's
22:11it raises
22:13a question
22:14of how much
22:15Malaysia
22:16as a chairman
22:16can be
22:18a mediating
22:19party
22:20having this
22:21larger authority
22:22of ASEAN
22:23behind itself
22:25there was also
22:27an issue
22:27there was also
22:29some action
22:30on trying
22:31to negotiate
22:31with the United
22:32States
22:32on tariffs
22:34but we've seen
22:35so far
22:36on that matter
22:37there was not
22:38much
22:38collaboration
22:41maybe some
22:42coordination
22:42but not
22:43collaboration
22:43within ASEAN
22:44and they
22:46preferred to
22:46engage
22:47they stated
22:47they would
22:47prefer to
22:48engage
22:48on the
22:48bilateral
22:49basis
22:49with the
22:50United States
22:51trying to
22:51reap
22:51their own
22:52benefits
22:53and negotiate
22:54on the
22:54case-by-case
22:55basis
22:55I think
22:57it will be
22:58raised
22:58in the
22:59summit
23:00in fact
23:00and they
23:01will try
23:02to
23:02coordinate
23:03it further
23:03on the
23:05other hand
23:05issues
23:06which are
23:07important
23:08to
23:08Malaysia
23:09but
23:10might not
23:10be
23:11as important
23:12to the
23:12other ASEAN
23:14members
23:14they
23:16have been
23:17kept
23:18in check
23:18it seems
23:19so
23:20so
23:20Malaysia
23:20has been
23:21promoting
23:21like
23:22again
23:22Malaysia
23:23stands
23:23on
23:23Palestine
23:24Malaysia
23:25is
23:25important
23:26to it
23:26but not
23:27everybody
23:27shares
23:27this
23:28position
23:28and
23:29it
23:30doesn't
23:31seem
23:31it has
23:31been
23:31trying
23:32to
23:32push
23:32too
23:33hard
23:33on
23:34other
23:34members
23:35to
23:35try
23:36and
23:36adopt
23:36the
23:37same
23:37agenda
23:37so
23:38so far
23:38so good
23:39we can
23:39say
23:40and
23:40with
23:41the
23:41ASEAN
23:41China
23:41GCC
23:42summit
23:43topping up
23:43the agenda
23:44which is
23:45a great
23:45initiative
23:46even if
23:46we don't
23:47hear
23:47that much
23:48of
23:49very
23:50tangible
23:51outcomes
23:51but nevertheless
23:53the discussions
23:53that take
23:54place
23:54are
23:54important
23:55so
23:56so far
23:57so good
23:57and we
23:58should see
23:59in the
23:59second
24:00half
24:00of the
24:01year
24:01what
24:03kind
24:04of
24:04outcomes
24:06we will
24:06see
24:07another
24:08bold move
24:08I would
24:09like to
24:10add to
24:11that
24:11and that's
24:12the most
24:12recent one
24:13of course
24:13it's
24:13Anwar Ibrahim's
24:14trip
24:14official
24:16trip
24:16to Russia
24:17which
24:17probably
24:18upset
24:19some
24:20western
24:20quarters
24:21but that
24:22was a
24:22promise
24:22that he
24:23has given
24:23to the
24:24Russian
24:24president
24:24last year
24:25to come
24:26to the
24:27summit
24:27and
24:29well
24:30in
24:31conjunction
24:31with this
24:32we should
24:33add that
24:33Malaysia
24:33became a
24:34partner
24:34country
24:35for
24:35BRICS
24:36something
24:36that
24:37it
24:37applied
24:38earlier
24:39on
24:39for
24:39and
24:40so
24:40it
24:41moves
24:42on
24:43with
24:44this
24:44line
24:44of
24:45expansion
24:45of
24:46its
24:46multilateral
24:47partnerships
24:48We have
24:50just about
24:50a minute
24:51or two
24:51left
24:52Dr.
24:52Julia
24:52but
24:52we
24:53were
24:54talking
24:54about
24:54the
24:55other
24:55half
24:55of
24:55the
24:56year
24:56what
24:56about
24:57the
24:57next
24:57few
24:57years
24:57to
24:58come
24:58is
24:58ASEAN
24:59do you
24:59think
24:59now
25:00at
25:00a
25:00critical
25:00juncture
25:01for
25:02them
25:02to
25:03determine
25:03or
25:03to
25:04chart
25:04its
25:04path
25:05for
25:05the
25:05next
25:05few
25:06years
25:06to
25:06come
25:06you
25:06mentioned
25:07a
25:07lot
25:07about
25:07this
25:08need
25:08for
25:09modernization
25:10is that
25:11what
25:11you
25:11see
25:12as
25:13being
25:13an
25:13urgent
25:13need
25:14for
25:14the
25:14next
25:14few
25:14years
25:14to
25:14come
25:15Yeah
25:16we
25:16can
25:16say
25:17that
25:17internal
25:18bureaucracy
25:19and
25:20inertia
25:21is
25:21one
25:22of
25:22the
25:22major
25:22obstacles
25:23so
25:24we
25:24would
25:24like
25:25to
25:25encourage
25:27within
25:27ASEAN
25:28I guess
25:28it's
25:30enhancing
25:30its
25:30institutional
25:31effectiveness
25:32overcoming
25:34this
25:34inertia
25:34and
25:35asserting
25:36its
25:37interest
25:37in
25:37major
25:38trade
25:38and
25:39security
25:39networks
25:40again
25:41including
25:42digital
25:42cooperation
25:43green
25:45energy
25:46cooperation
25:46and
25:47also
25:48in
25:48financial
25:49sense
25:49devalorization
25:50but
25:51internally
25:52strengthening
25:53the unity
25:54principle
25:56of
25:56ASEAN
25:56centrality
25:57looking
25:58into
25:59what
25:59neutrality
26:00actually
26:00means
26:00non-interference
26:01and
26:02overcoming
26:02the
26:03bureaucratic
26:04inertia
26:04from
26:05within
26:05plenty
26:07more
26:07we could
26:08unpack
26:08but
26:08that's
26:08all
26:09the
26:09time
26:09that
26:09we
26:09have
26:09today
26:09thank
26:10you
26:10so
26:10much
26:10Dr.
26:11Julia
26:11from
26:11Teles
26:11University
26:12on
26:13Agenda
26:13Awani
26:13tonight
26:14unpacking
26:16what
26:16we
26:16can
26:16expect
26:16from
26:17the
26:17ASEAN
26:17summit
26:17not
26:18just
26:18next
26:18week
26:18but
26:19for
26:19the
26:19next
26:20few
26:20years
26:20to
26:20come
26:20as
26:20well
26:20thank
26:21you
26:21so
26:21much
26:21Dr.
26:22Julia
26:22thank
26:23you
26:23that's
26:24all
26:24the
26:25time
26:25that
26:25we
26:25have
26:25on
26:25agenda
26:26Awani
26:26tonight
26:26with me
26:26Nailah
26:27Huda
26:27we'll catch you
26:27a lot of time
26:28we'll catch you
26:29Transcription by CastingWords