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00:00and joining us now on the river islands guest line is odyssey nfl insider jason la confora
00:06host of the odyssey original podcast wanna bet listen to wanna bet now on spotify or apple
00:12podcast or watch it live daily on jason's x account insider calls are brought to you by
00:18nationwide for your insurance and financial needs nationwide is on your side uh jason glad to have
00:24you and he's with us on youtube how's the podcast going it's going well we've got some plays uh for
00:30tonight's game some plays on the 9 p.m uh mlb game that we feel good about so yeah we we're not just
00:37football betting podcast uh doing really well in soccer and can't wait for the nba so yes it's good
00:43night to bet you aren't they all aren't they all and i'm sitting across from a man here that's true
00:48right jason so i'm sitting my partner over here we do something called fade the dibbers because
00:53last year well his picks kind of sucked and so we started out this year and the rules basically are
01:00he does all the monday night games the thursday night game the sunday night game and any niner game
01:05so we have we've amassed so far 21 games into this season jason he's 17 and 4 wow talk to me about
01:17what kind of run that is in the gambling community that's beyond a heater um it's funny we had a
01:25former producer on my radio show who didn't know anything about gambling whatsoever and he started
01:30jumping in with us and we had explained to him what over-unders were in lines and everything
01:34he lost 16 straight bets like that i i like i thought that was the most remarkable thing i'd ever
01:41like literally lost 16 straight against the spread bets before he finally hit one but 17 and four uh
01:48yeah i need access to this individual yeah i'm right here jason and i'm a long time you have a fan of
01:53yours and uh scorching last year in the playoffs i think i wound up going uh three and 11 or two and
02:0012 whatever it was so the bit actually worked last year but uh tonight the pick is in and uh we
02:07and by we i mean me i like the chiefs given the three and a half your thoughts
02:11i really i i like the under here um with the hook i i'd have to take the jags like i i'm buying the
02:20jags defense i i think they found themselves a legitimate defensive coordinator here and talk
02:26to some people and look i don't know anything about the guy like i just started making calls for my column
02:31with the washington post asking people about the jags and people kept saying the d coordinator the
02:36d coordinator the coordinator um and then you look at his background he's with halfley and green
02:41bay last year what do they do they go from can't take the ball over to turn people over all over the
02:47place right and they were top five in yards per play and then you go back to miami and he's there
02:52with vic fangio and he's there with brian flores and you know he's from jersey he's 43 he's pretty tough
02:58like i don't know man i think liam cohen found himself one here uh are they going to continue to
03:05turn people over um a defense that had nine takeaways all of last year already has nine
03:10interceptions and 13 total takeaways like i don't think that's sustainable but you look at the advanced
03:15run metrics they're 74 success rate stopping the run that's best in the nfl opposing quarterback
03:22rating 69 like i don't trust trevor lawrence i don't think they trust trevor lawrence i think they
03:28want to run at the end 16 18 20 times right play ball control keep it simple stupid i don't buy andy
03:35reed's prolific offense they look prolific against the ravens the ravens defense is a joke it's a fraud
03:40like i think they'll have to fight for it more tonight so i think both teams trust their kickers
03:45even though uh butker looks like he's tailing off so i kind of think it's an under game i'd have to take
03:51three and a half with jacksonville if you made me take a side um but uh i think trevor lawrence
03:57throws a pick and i i think at the end does get at least the 15 carries that you would need
04:01to cash that over odyssey nfl insider jason lock and for us with us he can go all around the league
04:08and insider calls are brought to you by nationwide for your insurance and financial needs nationwide
04:13is on your side jason i started off the show uh by saying look obviously he's a very very good
04:20quarterback he's taken multiple teams to the playoffs multiple years at least so we know he's
04:26good uh but you know now he's struggling because not everything around him is structured well and it's
04:32not going well now we have to worry about his health and then i said of course i'm talking about
04:36lamar jackson um which was my way of being like leave brock purdy alone for this whole like system
04:44thing he needs everything to be perfect around him joe burrow justin herbert like don't don't
04:50all quarterbacks need some level of things going well around them in order to succeed
04:56yeah they they do um undoubtedly and look the purdy thing's going to have plenty of time to play out
05:02right i mean that dies and cast you know they're going to have to play football games probably without
05:06trent williams next year you know like there's going to continue to be a metamorphosis of that
05:12of that roster um you know pierce all looks like the real thing kittle to me tight ends and running
05:19backs man when they go they go fast all those years high collision right you're in traffic all
05:24the time like so i i know they just extended him i'd be a little worried about that one you know i i
05:29think they probably need to get him um and maybe this tongue you know look tongue whatever he looks
05:35maybe they're okay there but like i do think having to move tight ends for him would be a big deal
05:42uh the offensive line again they're going to have to continue to sort of retool that on the fly
05:47uh i i have questions about them defensively as well so um look i i think what they were running
05:55for mac jones is the same stuff they'd have been running for brock purdy against the rams right
05:59that was a triage game it had to get it out quickly uh that rams d line can do a lot of work first half
06:06not so much second half started coming on and i think that's kind of who the the 49ers are right now
06:11as they continue to get healthy and if they can't run the ball in a more prolific manner
06:16than they can then i think it's going to be death by a million paper cuts in the screen game
06:21and that's how they'll sustain drives and you look at the upcoming game against tampa bay
06:25on sunday which has now been flexed into the afternoon it's nance and romo and tracy wolfson
06:30what do you think about that matchup just you know from 30 000 feet as we sit here now six days away
06:37i'm really bullish on the bucks but like this is a tough spot they've done a lot of traveling
06:42they're very beat up um is there something of a letdown perhaps in them uh baker mayfield is the
06:50real deal i mean nobody's thrown more touchdown passes than him since he got to tampa and he's got
06:55that fourth quarter gene and i know evans is out and i know bucky irving's out but like the rookie
07:02wide receiver is really good and he'll throw the ball to rashad white if he has to to sustain drives
07:07like his decision making and his instincts are pretty on point um and look todd bowles has done
07:14a really good job winning football games since he got there they are a little bit vulnerable at home
07:19sometimes like i i kind of like the bucks more on the road with that chip on their shoulder than they
07:24do at home i think this could be a higher scoring game right we're thinking san francisco's probably
07:29gotten a little healthier with nine days off since they last played um but it's just really hard for
07:36me to go against the bucks right now like i i mean to me they're a super bowl contender and i think
07:42the quarterback might be the mvp of the league this year so uh i think it's probably another close game
07:48it seems like that's what the niners are going to do this year but i i tampa's a tough out man tampa's
07:55a tough out yep yep no doubt about it jason luckham for a odyssey nfl insider joining us here
08:01on willard and dibs 95 7 the game jason let's talk mac jones this this performance that he's put
08:06together what do you think it means for him and and sort of like how how much would it travel you
08:13know what i mean like does the rest of the league start to get re-interested in him if something like
08:18this were to continue well we just talked about baker mayfield did you see what sam donald's doing
08:24like how how are you not i mean right like they spend a little time around him and those two were
08:32in carolina and couldn't i mean the panthers who haven't had a quarterback in forever you know they
08:38didn't want anything to do with either of them they wanted both of them out of their building and then
08:41baker spends three weeks with liam cohen right he gets picked up off the street by the rams they run
08:46out of quarterbacks he plays that thursday night game against the the raiders wins um you know he he gets
08:52sort of polished up and then we saw what what darnold spending a little bit of time with shanahan did for
08:59him so yeah i i mean i think he will be polished up you'll understand what you have to do the quick
09:07passing game play to his strengths um you know he he looks like a gamer obviously he was a part of an
09:14untenable thing in new england with the end of belichick and we can see you know that he might have
09:19been a little off his rocker there himself um you know that offense without mcdaniels really
09:25hadn't done much so yeah man i i think he will be somebody who will have an opportunity to further
09:30his career someplace else next year making uh more money than he is now any chance that shanahan
09:36sticks with him if brock's out for two or three weeks and he keeps winning
09:40i mean crazier things have happened right brock purdy wasn't supposed to get this job in the
09:46first place they moved heaven and earth to get trey lance i'm old enough to remember that i mean look
09:51i i could it play out that way i guess i i just think you'd have a hell of a time moving that
10:02that purdy concert like if matt jones were to beat him out i i don't know that they can financially let
10:08that happen like with where that roster is and the long-term needs like we're talking about maybe
10:13needing a new left tackle like there's going to be a lot of things they need pass rushers probably
10:18plural like can you really count on both anymore like are they going to be able to also try to move
10:23a crazy contract i i don't think it comes to that i don't think brock purdy gets wally pipped here
10:30um but i do think matt jones will continue to look highly functional on this offer uh jason i wonder
10:38what it says about brock purdy that we're even having this conversation right now he like since
10:44this contract got signed he's played two games and and and one of them he won on the road in in seattle
10:49so what does it say that seemingly at least a portion of the fan base and nation is willing to
10:58even have this conversation this quickly i think it says that 60 million dollar quarterbacks
11:06excluding like tua who that was just a bad deal they generally have some superpower in their skill
11:15set that propels them and makes you think that they're different than the average bear right
11:20whether it's to josh allen and what that looks like or joe burrow with maybe arguably just the best
11:25pure arm in the league or herbert and that unique athletic skill set right the lamar jack like usually
11:32you're a freak of nature athletically and burrow's pretty athletic i think he's more athletic than
11:37than maybe some might think or you just you know he took the bengals to a super bowl like in his second
11:42year like that you know like brock purdy doesn't have that if he had that there's no way you draft him
11:50when you draft him because somebody's like it's just too much of an athletic like we got to scoop that up
11:54we got to see what that like at the very least he's like a milrone you know what i mean like
11:58someone in the middle rounds is like hey i'm jumping on him i think i got lightning in a bottle
12:01so i think it really comes down to that all the same reasons that the analyst right the quants the
12:08the the people who were super into the metrics and all the combine numbers right who are in these
12:12organizations like that's how you end up being mr irrelevant and when you're mr irrelevant there's
12:18going to be certain people who are kind of thinking is there something flukish to this success
12:21so but i think that's what it's like i i don't know that he has a superpower and then the fact
12:27that he was raised by shanahan who we're just talking about you know he he brought darnold back
12:33from the dead he's bringing mac jones back from the dead i think that works against him as well
12:38and is that truly the superpower the fact that he's working with kyle in other words can
12:43kyle rightly get another quarterback not just mac or sam but anybody else and turn them into something
12:49that they otherwise weren't well i think that's why some people are surprised that this played
12:55out the way it did and that they made this sort of bed with purdy because that's sort of always been
13:00their thinking you know and like
13:05and to see these guys like baker and darnold you know even like gino for a while like have this
13:12late prime renaissance that gets them real money contracts but not 60 million a year
13:20that sort of upper mid-tier right like cousins that's why so many people thought
13:24hey they might just mess around wait for cousins they get caught or trade for cousins especially now
13:29that he's on the cheap and move off a purdy there a lot of personnel guys thought hey if they do that
13:34that's going to give them more flexibility to keep another blue chip player or two obviously um
13:39i think they had some scars from the lance thing and some scars from the jimmy g thing and so look if this
13:45is our guy this is our guy and we're gonna you know we're gonna pay what we have to pay and do what
13:50we have to do um but it doesn't mean that there won't they won't regret that down the road
13:59jason la confora is with us odyssey nfl insider on wither and dibs 95 7 the game you had mentioned
14:06a minute ago you're bullish on the bucks i'm looking at the six four and one teams that are in
14:11the nfl and and the niners and bucks play against one another this week their point differentials
14:17respectively are three and eight that's it i i know that they're both banged up but do you see these
14:24two teams as both kind of belonging with the other four and one teams around the league or
14:30is this sort of circumstantial um i mean obviously there's a lot of football to be played i i i think
14:38the bucks get a little bit of a of a bump because of division they play in you know um they've already
14:44won uh a big division game like week one that that i mean atlanta's improved defensively right but
14:51they've already got that feather in their cap carolina's marginally better but still could get
14:56blown out by anybody any given week the saints are going to be picking in the top three you know
15:01and i think they've done a really good job of dominating that division so i think that's going
15:05to get them a home playoff game at least right and they've got a playoff pedigree i think it's a
15:11little bit more of a dogfight for the 49ers because of that division um and because of some of the
15:17the attrition that they've had to their roster and because you know some of the guys who really
15:22like bosa right would have been on a real short list of dudes who might probably get hurt but really
15:27can't um but i mean look these are teams that are have become playoff fixtures so uh and once you get
15:36in anything's possible but i i could see tampa having a little bit of an easier road niners are probably
15:43going to be looking for a pass rusher and trey hendrickson as the bangles continue to free fall
15:48might be available what do you think would be fair compensation for a team to go out there and try
15:53to get hendrickson at the deadline i would say good luck making a trade with mike brown you know i'm old
15:59enough to remember you know three four years ago and everybody wanted out of there like geno atkins like
16:04the whole defense were quitting and no one could try like i literally had gm saying like i can't get
16:11katie blackburn on the phone she's in switzerland skiing and mike brown's not refusing is refusing to
16:18engage and when we called duke tobin he says i'm not authorized to do that you've got to talk to mike
16:23or katie like i just don't think that's mike brown's bag like he he he's always told other teams i don't
16:30want to help you win like he'd rather i mean he did it with aj green that you're like he'd rather eat the
16:35bad contract and make those guys live it out with him right and slug out an ugly season than he would
16:42trade them i i think the premium that he would put on them especially after just having finally paid
16:47hendrickson and and gussy that up it makes all the sense in the world to move him but just too many
16:53people have told me over the years like my god it's really painful trying to engage him on these kind of
16:59matters he's like he's like a conscientious objector to the trade deadline so good luck
17:04whatever you think it's going to cost it'll probably cost more well i what about some other
17:09guys like i i look at miami and there's pedigree obviously between the two head coaches chubb and
17:15jalen phillips like you think those might be nice fits yeah i think that owner knows he's going to have
17:21to fire the coach and so why not move some salary nobody's going to come to their games anyway
17:25um i think he's got to clear the deck he's got to finally get chris career out of there as well
17:30so yeah i think miami you know the giants let's see thursday night let's see a couple more weeks
17:36you know tibodeau they've already drafted his replacement and abdul carter there have been
17:40rumors about him for you know going back to this time last year um i think they'd really love to have
17:46a dominant defensive front and on paper it looks like it should be but it hasn't really manifested
17:52itself and they're paying some other guys already so like that that wouldn't shock me you know
17:58tennessee people are gonna people are gonna try to get simmons out of there i know that's obviously
18:02interior you're talking more edge but um that's another one where like they didn't want to trade
18:07derrick henry because the owner last year i mean they wanted to the football people wanted to trade him
18:11but amy adams drunk didn't want to trade him um you know she's trying to get a stadium built she's
18:16trying to get a billion dollars in free money so like she doesn't want to have an empty stadium
18:20are people going to show up to see simmons on a two-win team i don't know um but i just know
18:24making making these kind of trades with them uh in years past has proven tricky and they've obviously
18:30been a horrible team for a while now uh jason wonderful to have you man great to have your
18:34perspective and uh you know good luck with your picks thank you let's go we've been really good on
18:40these uh these one game nfl windows so hopefully we get after it thank you guys boom all right thanks
18:45jason that was odyssey nfl insider jason la confora insider calls are brought to you by
18:50nationwide for your insurance and financial needs nationwide is on your side jason is the host
18:56of the odyssey original podcast wanna bet remember to listen to wanna bet on spotify
19:02or apple podcast or watch it live daily on jason's x account
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