00:00All right, viewers, the dates are out. What are the X factors? What should one look out for? Who has the edge, even though the elections are now over a month away?
00:09Let's cut across to our consulting editor, Rajdeep Sardisai, as well as my colleague Rohit Singh, who joins us live from Patna.
00:15Rajdeep, coming to you first, we spoke about, you know, X factors in this election.
00:21There have been the cliches of the Mahila vote. There have been personalities like how will Nitish Kumar fare?
00:27How will Prashant Kishore, untested political force fare?
00:31But all in all, what is your assessment? One month away from election, who do you think has the edge?
00:37What will be the, who will be the big players? What are the X factors?
00:44Well, you would think, Preeti, that at the start of this race, the NDA has the edge, quite simply because it is a wider alliance.
00:51At the end of the day, arithmetic matters in politics. You've got the BJP, the JDU, Jitin Ram Bhaji's party, Chirag Paswan, who last time fought on his own, this time is with, firmly with the NDA and Upendra Kushwa.
01:05So you've got a larger alliance than what you have on the other side, RJD, Congress, CPI, ML, the Vikaash Shil party as well.
01:13So arithmetic, you would suggest, would be advantage NDA. Then you come to chemistry. And that's where it perhaps gets a little bit tighter because clearly Tejasvi Yadav, as most polls have suggested, is a preferred choice for chief ministership.
01:28But, and this is a big but, can he be able to actually increase his vote base beyond what has been the traditional RJD vote base, the MY factor?
01:41So I think that's the challenge for Tejasvi Yadav. On the other hand, Nitish Kumar faces 20 years of anti-incumbency, but in the last one month, we've seen the NDA government throw money at the voter in a sense.
01:56Give them direct, give them benefits, cash benefits through their DBT schemes. Whether it's the Mukhya Mantri, Mahila, Rozgar, Yojna or the scheme for youth that the Prime Minister launched over the weekend, all of them involve direct cash benefits.
02:12And we saw both in Maharashtra and Haryana last year, once you gave direct benefits to women under Ladki Bahin or Ladli Bahina in the two states of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, it made a huge difference.
02:23And therefore, the sense is that that gives the NDA an advantage. So there is anti-incumbency, particularly since Nitish Kumar himself seems to be a downsized chief minister in the last few years.
02:37But, on the other hand, direct welfare benefits could cut through all the caste calculations that anyone would make.
02:45A final point is the X factor of Prashant Kishore. When you have a new entrant in a field, someone who's put a very highly visible campaign, can he convert that visibility into votes?
02:56If he crosses 10%, then it's game on. Because as we saw in 2020, just 12,000 votes separated one alliance from the other.
03:06So if a Prashant Kishore can make an impact, can actually get votes from both sides possibly, then you have a much tighter race.
03:16But at the start of the race, simply because it has a wider alliance, I would say the NDA goes into this election with perhaps a slight edge.
03:27You know, Rajdeep, you know, interesting how you lay it out. But, you know, if you look at it, Bihar can be called a swing state, always thrown up electoral outcomes,
03:38which have pretty much bucked on what trends that have been predicted for the state, number one.
03:43Number two, we speak of, you know, what is the arithmetic on paper. You know, you talk about the LJP.
03:50It was, one could also say Rajdeep, it was half with the NDA and half not with the NDA the last time around,
03:56because it only fielded candidates right next, opposite, JDU. So one could say that.
04:01On the other hand, you have the VIP, which is now in the Mahagatbandan vote. So that's an additional there.
04:06The Mahagatbandan is also bringing in certain smaller players, especially where the Dalit community is concerned.
04:12And that would be interesting because the Mahagatbandan, like you pointed out, other than the MY, Muslim-Yadav combination,
04:18would need a third component. And they are looking at possibly the Dalit vote or they are looking at the EBC vote for that.
04:25So do you think what traditional arithmetic or what would be a traditional cephalogy actually, you know,
04:33confirms to a state like Bihar? Because it hasn't really happened ever.
04:37Bihar has always gone differently than what has been predicted.
04:43Yes and no, because, is my answer to your question, because in a way, certain caste alliances have been frozen.
04:51The RJD, for example, goes into an election with about 65 to 70 seats, which it is sure of winning,
04:57because of the strong MY combination, which is Muslim-Yadav. There are about 60 seats where this combination is more than 40% of the vote
05:06and the RJD traditionally has dominated those seats. So you have a strong vote bank of one party.
05:13You have, on the other hand, Nitish Kumar, who has consistently at least got 15% of the vote,
05:18a large percentage of the EBC vote, and the BJP, which has sustained itself at 20% plus.
05:24So at the two, they are at 35-36%. The challenge in Bihar is always, where will I get my incremental voter from?
05:32How do I go from 35-36%, which is roughly where the two alliances are, to 42-43%?
05:38And that's where the smaller parties come into play.
05:41The Congress has been traditionally the Kamzor Kadi, the weakling.
05:45They have not been able to punch above their weight. They won only 19 of the 70 seats they contested last time.
05:50The CPI-ML is a clear addition to the Mahagadbandan. It has done very well in recent elections.
05:57That's where even a Chirag Paswan with 5.6% of the votes that he got last time does add to the NDA's vote bank.
06:05That's where you expect a Jitin Ram Maji to add to the vote bank.
06:09So it is the incremental voter that adds in an election. Plus, as I keep repeating, direct welfare benefits.
06:16Now, some call it vote-kharidi. Others say you're providing welfare.
06:21Either way, if I am getting 10,000 rupees, one-time payment to more than a crore women, will that voter not vote for me?
06:31We saw in Maharashtra, Ladki Bahein made a difference. It was a game-changer.
06:36Question is, will this Mahila vote, which has been with Nitish, stay with him?
06:40Because Nitish Kumar is both an asset and a liability at the moment.
06:44He's an asset because he brings that 15% vote. He's a liability because he is the face of anti-incumbency.
06:51And therefore, one will have to see to what extent does Nitish Kumar hold his own or is he now in permanent decline?
06:59I think that will be an important factor. Plus, how do the alliances actually work together on the ground?
07:06Arithmetic is one thing, chemistry on the ground.
07:08How will they share seats? Will the seat-sharing be smooth and will they be able to work on the ground?
07:14A final point, organizationally, the BJP still has the booth-level management and the resources that the RJD-Congress combined will find difficult to match.
07:25And will Rahul Gandhi be able to translate his vote-chori campaign into votes is actually going to be another big test.
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