- 2 months ago
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar on Thursday filed his nomination papers for the Rajya Sabha polls, setting off intense speculation over who could succeed him.
Category
ЁЯЧЮ
NewsTranscript
00:20Good evening, you're watching yet another edition of the Democratic Newsroom.
00:24We have a band of editors with us, Rajdeep Sardesai, Gaurav Sawant, Maria Shaquille and we are teleporting my colleague
00:30Sahil Joshi all the way from Mumbai.
00:33And while there is a full-blown war that we are covering in West Asia, a lot of political developments
00:41where domestic politics is concerned.
00:43Nitish Kumar no longer going to be the Chief Minister of Bihar. He's coming to Delhi on a Rajya Sabhar
00:48ticket.
00:48Will BJP now get their Chief Minister in place where Bihar is concerned?
00:53And importantly, has BJP once again been successful in sidelining and cannibalizing one of its own allies?
01:01That's up for discussion. Rajdeep, go first.
01:04Look, I have to give BJP huge credit for creating a de facto Magdarshak mandal.
01:10Whether it is their own party leaders and this time an ally.
01:14Nitish Kumar turned 75 a few days ago and the BJP has choreographed this brilliantly.
01:20Because now what have you done? You've killed three birds with one stone.
01:23You've got Nitish Kumar, you've given him an exit route, effective exit route out of Bihar politics after two decades
01:31of dominating in terms of Chief Ministership.
01:33You've finally got what the BJP always wanted in Bihar, the Chief Ministership.
01:38And in the last two elections, the BJP has got more seats than the JDU and yet they gave the
01:43Chief Ministership to the JDU.
01:45And number three, the BJP has sent a signal to the JDU in particular that we are in the driving
01:51seat.
01:52You are now in the side seat and not only to the JDU but to other allies as well.
01:57We've seen it in Maharashtra as well with the Shiv Sena.
01:59The BJP is very clear. This is their moment in Indian politics.
02:03They will set the rules of the game and Nitish Kumar, whether it's called an honourable exit, dishonourable exit, Rajya
02:11Sava, it was inevitable.
02:12His health condition was such that frankly I think this should have happened some while ago but they needed his
02:18face.
02:18The only negative you might sign is that the only ism in politics is opportunism.
02:24The BJP needed Nitish Kumar's chehra for the Bihar elections of 2025.
02:30They used the chehra. Now they don't need the chehra. Chehra has been put in the Rajya Sava.
02:34And so about Nitish Kumar. Nitish Kumar also needed BJP.
02:37Sure, sure. But I mean, you know, let's be honest, Maria.
02:41The BJP could not have won this election without Nitish Kumar, right?
02:45And Nitish Kumar needed the BJP. Unlike in 2020, I'm only using the words you gave me which have stuck
02:53in my mind that then he was seen as baggage, this time he was seen as luggage.
02:58But he's back as baggage and he's been now shunted.
03:01Because once the election's over, you don't need him.
03:03So that was the game plan on a lot.
03:04And that's why only I agree with Maria that Nitish Kumar also needed the BJP.
03:08But four months later, it's a one-way street.
03:12He's completely dispensable.
03:14To that extent, it is a bit of use and throw politics nicely packaged as an exit room.
03:20Let's not forget also that the BJP in Bihar was under the big shadow of Nitish Kumar.
03:26They were also growing under his shadow because they needed him as much.
03:30But look, I think right now it is BJP's moment in Bihar.
03:35They have to shed this perception that they are an upper caste party while they have OBCs and EBCs firmly
03:42in the leadership role.
03:43If you look at names, I'm giving some names here, Preeti.
03:46Nityanandrai, Samrat Chaudhary from the OBC.
03:49Then you have Sanjeev Chaurasia who is a Patna Diga MLA, one of the oldest MLAs of Patna Bihar Assembly,
03:55which is Prem Kumar from the EBCs.
03:57So, the BJP right now has that moment where they have to shed that image, like they have done in
04:03the state of Uttar Pradesh,
04:04that they are also a subaltern party, keeping in mind the social realities and the caste realities of Bihar.
04:10All right. You know, Gaurav, let me introduce another ism that we are coming to you, Sahil.
04:13Let me get Gaurav and I'm coming right to you.
04:15Coming right to you, Sahil.
04:17Another ism, Gaurav, that we can include in this is cannibalism because BJP might have grown under other regional political
04:25parties,
04:25but one can name Odisha, one can name Maharashtra, one can name Assam of all the allies that they have
04:31eventually cannibalized.
04:32So, I think that is a very negative way of looking at it.
04:36Even when BJP has done better than Nitish Kumar, they made him the Chief Minister.
04:41It's a slow process.
04:41Even when he had half the numbers.
04:44Which if Senniath started in the 90s.
04:46No, if you have half the numbers, you will destroy him when you have double numbers,
04:50but you did not look at figures.
04:52This time, of course, BJP has 99, JDU has 85, and yet he was made Chief Minister.
04:5720-20.
04:5889.
04:5889-85.
04:5989-85. That's exactly what I said.
05:01You know, in 2020, BJP had 74, JDU had 43. 43. Was that cannibalizing him? He was still made Chief
05:08Minister.
05:08This is perception in the minds of some people.
05:11Not him. Party.
05:12Party. You may be him and party. He was Chief Minister.
05:16And look at Maharashtra. Shinde did not have full numbers.
05:19Yet, Devendra Fadnavis became Deputy Chief Minister. Shinde was made Chief Minister.
05:24So, it is politics.
05:25So, power for the course.
05:26It's power for course. Every party has to grow.
05:28But, you know, it's cannibalizing. You are eating up everyone. You will eat everything.
05:33That may be somebody's perception.
05:35Every political party wants to grow.
05:37Every political party wants to be the party.
05:39Unless you are either the party or you are finished.
05:43If you have all old people, you will be in the Mark Darsak Bandal.
05:46But there are enough old people in the BJP as well.
05:48And they have a younger generation that's taking over.
05:50But, Sahil, to bring you in on this, this is the nature of politics.
05:53Sam, dam, dand, bhet, whatever it takes to grow your footprint.
05:58Well, you know, I have to talk about one very clear thing.
06:03What Gaurav was mentioning, even Rajdeep tried to mention it before.
06:07That earlier election, even when Nitish Kumar was half in numbers, BJP made him the Chief Minister.
06:13I'm sorry, the numbers were such that no government could have been formed without Nitish Kumar's support.
06:19Nitish had 42 number of MLAs.
06:21And if RJD or even BJP wanted to make the government, they have to have Nitish on their side.
06:27And that's why Nitish Kumar was made the Chief Minister, not other way around.
06:31Now, the number game is not in favor.
06:34No, no, please, please understand.
06:3689, 85.
06:37At this point of time, the number game is not in favor of Nitish Kumar.
06:40Even if Nitish Kumar wants, he cannot form the government with the help of RJD at this point of time.
06:45With the RJD's other weakness.
06:46Because BJP has 89.
06:47The alliance partners has enough numbers that the BJP can form the government on its own.
06:52The same thing happened in Maharashtra.
06:54The BJP reached 137.
06:56And they told Iknath Shinde that, look, we actually don't need anybody.
07:00We can form the government only with the smaller parties.
07:02You know, many could turn around and say, this is the beauty of politics.
07:05They waited for the opposition to be at its weakest in Bihar to go for the political kill.
07:09Exactly my point.
07:10And now they're in.
07:11No, exactly my point.
07:13So the biggest learning game for this in the whole scenario is that the smaller parties, especially parties like Nitish
07:21Kumar.
07:21I mean, everybody knew that this is going to happen with Iknath Shinde.
07:24But to do it with Nitish Kumar, it's a big gamble.
07:27The BJP looked for an opportunity.
07:29Everybody thought that it will happen in six months' time, seven months' time.
07:32But they looked for an opportunity.
07:34They thought that this is safe at this point of time.
07:36Sahil, the BJP and JT were nine months to settle down the government.
07:41And that's why they have done this.
07:42So this alliance has been there for 21 years.
07:46And is continuing.
07:49For all these 21 years, the BJP was under Nitish Kumar's shadow.
07:55And it served Nitish Kumar's narrative when he carved out non-Yadav OBCs, when he spoke about the Mahadalits, the
08:04EBCs, because then it was him setting narrative away from Lalu Yadav.
08:09He wanted to ensure that the caste battle lines that were there in the 1990s, Bihar is not seen in
08:152005 onwards, when Nitish became the chief minister.
08:19That served his purpose.
08:21BJP was seen as the party only around the upper caste.
08:24But look at what has happened in 20 years.
08:26BJP today in Bihar has as many EBCs and OBCs as any other political party.
08:32Be it the J.D.U. or the A.D.U.
08:33They have the leaders.
08:34One second, Sahil, let me get Rajdeep into this conversation.
08:36They have the leaders, but they do not have the vote back.
08:38The government is going to continue to grow.
08:40Whenever the people fight on their own, their strike rate is not as good as the big fight with the
08:45J.D.U.
08:45Sahil, I'll come right back to you.
08:46Let me bring in. Rajdeep wants to come in for a quick word.
08:48Rajdeep, whether we like it or we don't like it, we can read it as Sam, Dam, Dand,
08:52opposition at the weakest, BJP going for the kill.
08:55But this is a cautionary tale for smaller regional outfits.
08:59Look at the history of the BJP from Assam to Odisha to Maharashtra.
09:03I don't even need to elucidate.
09:05It's right there.
09:06The Congress has done that as well.
09:06No, the fact is, the BJP is doing what the Congress used to do.
09:10Yes, exactly.
09:11One minute.
09:1250s, 60s, 70s, if you see, the Congress was an expansionist party.
09:16The BJP today is the same.
09:18The irony is, since she mentioned the Congress, what she forgets, my friend Maria,
09:22when Congress tied up with regional parties, the regional parties often grew at the expense of the Congress.
09:28But that was when there was a so-called secularism to keep BJP out.
09:31No, no, no, it's nothing to keep.
09:32The BJP was never there at that time.
09:34The fact is, over the years, when the Congress tied up, and the classic example is Tamil Nadu.
09:40When the Congress ceded the space to DMK in a 1971 election, since then, the Congress has never come back
09:46to power on its own in Tamil Nadu.
09:48The Congress, when it tied up or struck deals of convenience with the regional parties,
09:53the regional parties grew at the expense of the Congress party.
09:56The BJP has learned from that lesson.
09:58What has the BJP done?
09:59This was a Hindi, Hindu, Hindustan party till 30, 35 years ago in the 1980s.
10:04It has consciously looked for areas of growth.
10:06How do you grow in some areas?
10:08You piggyback on a regional party, take full advantage of sharing power with them,
10:13and then a moment comes when you become larger than them.
10:16And I can give you examples.
10:18Maharashtrabadi Gomantak party in Goa.
10:20The BJP was very much the secondary player.
10:24Today is the dominant player.
10:25AGP in Assam.
10:27Look at Maharashtra with the Shiv Sena.
10:29As long as Bal Thakre was there, the BJP knew that it would have to play a subordinate door to
10:34Mr. Thakre.
10:35To a limit, even BJD in Odisha.
10:36Mr. Thakre passes away in 2012.
10:39By 2025, the BJP is party number one.
10:41I am not saying, I am not attaching a judgmental call here.
10:45This is what politics is about.
10:46When you rise, someone else comes under your shadow.
10:50And that's exactly what's happened.
10:52These regional parties and Nithish Kumar.
10:53Just one last point on Nithish Kumar.
10:56I have always felt this.
10:57This is the same Nithish Kumar who resigned as chief minister in Bihar when Narendra Modi ji was set to
11:05become the prime ministerial candidate of the BJP.
11:08How have things changed in 12 years?
11:10In 12 years, Nithish Kumar now has to take the crutch of a Rajya Sabha to come to Delhi with
11:16Mr. Modi as Neta number one.
11:18In his own way, in his own little way, Mr. Modi has got his revenge.
11:22But can I add Rajdeep to it?
11:23Can I just add one line to it?
11:24Mr. Modi has revenge on his way and on his way for Delhi.
11:28But Rajdeep, there's also a...
11:28Because Nithish refused to attend a rally once because Mr. Modi was there.
11:32But Rajdeep, there's also a cycle of karma there.
11:34Look how Nithish Kumar had treated George Fernandes.
11:38Exactly the same trajectory.
11:40Go ahead, Gaurav.
11:41I'm sorry.
11:41To the best of my knowledge, the BJP is not treating Nithish Kumar like that.
11:45They're treating him with respect.
11:46He's come to Rajya Sabha.
11:48Point one, point two.
11:49There is a generational shift.
11:51Okay.
11:51I mean, it's not that everybody will hang on to the coattails of an aging party or an aging individual.
11:57If there's a generational shift, Gaurav, then the chief minister should be the JDU.
12:00If there is a generational shift, then because of JDU...
12:03If you remember, BJP is not a generational shift.
12:05No, but BJP is not a generational shift.
12:08It is a generational shift.
12:09This is a permanent point.
12:10No, no, just a small...
12:11One lesson, and here I agree with my friend Gaurav.
12:13One of the lessons of politics, I think, is that every party should in India have some system of a
12:18generational shift.
12:19The BJP, to its credit, has achieved that to a large extent.
12:22Look at all their chief ministers.
12:23One minute.
12:25One minute.
12:26One minute.
12:26All in their 50s.
12:27And the fact is that the Congress, because it is out of power, is unable to...
12:32Okay, I don't have much time.
12:34What do you do except to Jenerians and octogenarians in that party?
12:36Sahil, quickly make your point.
12:37The BJP had the same problem, by the way, when they were in the opposition.
12:39Let's allow Sahil to come in.
12:40Sahil, make your point.
12:42Is Sahil with us?
12:43You know, it's a tremendous risk what the BJP has taken at this point of time.
12:48Because to remove Nitesh Kumar and bring their own chief minister.
12:51I agree with Maria that they have a lot of leaders from the EBC and OBC categories,
12:56but they still do not have that food bank.
12:58And that is the reason why they needed Nitesh Kumar along their side at this point of time.
13:02You know, Sahil, Sahil, again.
13:03They are ready to take this plunge because they have over years and nine months on their side.
13:08And that's why they are taking this risk at this point of time.
13:11Lalu also needed Nitesh Kumar in 2015.
13:14Because the fight in Bihar is not yet over.
13:15The fight in Bihar is not yet over.
13:18Even in Maharashtra, BJP has a lot of Maratha leaders, but still they need Pawars.
13:23Still they need NCP on their side.
13:24Okay, Maria.
13:24So, we have to wait and see what happened today.
13:26So, 2015, when you are talking about, at that time, Lalu Yadav needed Nitesh Kumar.
13:32He was that very essential third pillar of Bihar politics, almost a necessity.
13:36But then, as we have seen, if in 1990s, had Lalu Yadav not prepared the ground, Nitesh would not have
13:44arrived.
13:45Nitesh has prepared the ground for the arrival of the BJP.
13:47Bihar right now is ready to accept the BJP for a simple reason.
13:51Rajdeep, let me just finish quickly.
13:53Because the matrix which Nitesh enjoyed is now firmly with the BJP.
13:57Can I ask you a simple question?
13:59Yes.
13:59Therefore, if the matrix is over, what happens to the JDU?
14:03Is the JDU over?
14:04Be honest with me.
14:05There are enough people in the JDU today who have one foot actually in the BJP.
14:10Correct?
14:10Yes.
14:10So, what happens to the JDU?
14:12This is a question I ask in general to the Shiv Sena also.
14:14What happens to the Shiv Sena?
14:16What happens to these regional parties or in this case,
14:19I also ask for a question.
14:19It was seem to represent a sort of part of the Mandelite movement.
14:23What happens to that?
14:24Has BJP combined Mandir and Mandar under one umbrella in Bihar?
14:28They have done it.
14:30In Bihar, one day, I have finally done it.
14:33I have three minutes.
14:34Got to make your point and then I'll come back.
14:35I quickly want to say that it is not,
14:37if these regional parties haven't been able to throw up a second line of defense,
14:41I don't think it's fair to blame the BJP.
14:42Who is JDU's second line of leadership that's going to come up?
14:46If BJP has a second line of leadership and the JDU and the BJP,
14:50you know, they come together and operate together, it's happening.
14:53It is a cautionary tale for regional parties to have a situation.
14:57In your case, to have a second line of leadership, which is heavy, I'll give you your own example.
15:02Okay, Sahil, very quickly, you have 30 seconds.
15:05Yeah, it is not the question of leadership.
15:07What is going to happen to the people who were voting for Janta Adal United?
15:11What is going to happen to that?
15:12A huge chunk of the OBC voters, a lot of Muslim voters.
15:16A lot of Muslim voters, a huge chunk of OBC voters that voted for the JDU.
15:20They will vote for whoever delivers better for them.
15:21They voted for Nitish Kumar, they voted for Nitish Kumar, 2015, 2015, the same, 2015, when JDU, RJD won together,
15:33people voted for what?
15:34Mahagat Bandhan, what happened two and a half years later when Nitish Kumar walked out of that alliance and formed
15:39an alliance with the BJP?
15:40Because the leader was telling us to vote in a particular way.
15:44No, no, that leads open the question and then Sahil is right.
15:46What is going to happen to that?
15:47No, no, Sahil has a point.
15:48What is going to happen to that?
15:49There is a risk factor associated.
15:51The BJP in Bihar is not like UP where it is still that over...
15:56Just a minute.
15:57As we've seen for 20 years in Bihar, if two sides out of these three pillars came together,
16:02either Lalu and Nitish or BJP and Nitish, they won.
16:05Nitish was the glue in a way who ensured political power.
16:09Have we reached a stage, and therefore it's an open question which will be decided probably four years from now.
16:15Have we reached a stage where you don't need Nitish Kumar anymore and the BJP can go into the next
16:21election without Nitish Kumar involved in the campaign?
16:23There was something, I want to just throw up one question in the last three minutes.
16:26In the last three minutes, because there was something that we discussed at length, which was Nitish Kumar will go
16:32of his own timing of choosing.
16:34Is this his timing of choosing?
16:35Of course not.
16:35Have he chosen this?
16:36No.
16:36No, no, look, I can tell you for a fact, because I know, I mean, from whatever I heard, Nitish
16:42was not willing to go right away.
16:44He thought he would go, he would choose his time.
16:46But in politics, you can't always choose your time.
16:49So that's not happening.
16:49I think, let me be fair to the BJP.
16:52The BJP believes, and they have reason too, that for the last 10 years in particular,
16:55they put all their weight into Bihar in terms of their, of resources, in terms of bringing in new leaders.
17:03The benefits were accruing to Nitish Kumar.
17:05Now they feel the time has come.
17:07Last one minute.
17:07Maria has covered Bihar.
17:10I want to get Maria in.
17:11And you know, Maria, with Nitish Kumar leaving the way in which he has, is this what was expected by
17:18the, I'm not talking about the JDU, by the people who voted for the JDU and Nitish Kumar?
17:22This is definitely not his timing of choosing.
17:25Look, Preeti, if you look at the tweet, I'm going to what, with what has been put out in the
17:29public domain.
17:30Of course, conspiracy theories are doing the rounds.
17:32In Patna, I've been speaking to a lot of bureaucrats.
17:34What are the conspiracy theories?
17:35A lot of theories.
17:36I mean, it's not for, you know, perhaps for journalists to speak about it until unless it's formalized.
17:41But let's go with what Nitish Kumar has said, that he wants to be part of all the four houses,
17:45be it the assembly or the legislative council in Bihar, which has happened.
17:49He has been the member of the Lok Sabha.
17:51Now he's entering the Rajya Sabha.
17:52So I'm going to go with what Nitish Kumar has said it on report.
17:55His son is going to be brought in, as they say, as Deputy Chief Minister, as it's being speculated.
18:00And then let's see, look, every party wants to grow.
18:03So once again, every party wants to grow.
18:05It doesn't have to be cannibalization.
18:06They're growing at their own hard work.
18:08And then the voters decide who they want to vote for.
18:11Did JDU then cannibalize BJP for all those 20 years?
18:14But they did not allow them to grow either.
18:16Also with the son coming in, right?
18:18Ultimately, it used to be that you have to prove your mettle.
18:20If you are good, accepted, you are there.
18:22The son is completely out of politics.
18:24He's not in touch with the carder of the JDU.
18:26But he's been brought in as the Deputy Chief Minister.
18:28No, no, not yet.
18:29Not yet.
18:30In all probability.
18:32Okay.
18:3220 seconds, Sahil.
18:3320 seconds, Rajdeep.
18:34Sahil, you have exactly 20 seconds.
18:36Go ahead.
18:38Well, as I said earlier, okay, Nitish Kumar is out of Bihar.
18:42But will his voters be with him or will they vote for the BJP?
18:46Now they're out in open.
18:49They'll be voting after four and a half years.
18:53Okay, 20 seconds, 20 seconds, Rajdeep.
18:55Look, I think Nitish Kumar was a rather remarkable politician.
18:58And I think through all this, you have to give him credit in a state like Bihar to the longevity
19:02that he had to try to make an attempt, at least certainly in the initial years, as Sushasan Babu.
19:08Eventually, I think politics and the politics of compromise caught up with Nitish Kumar.
19:13And he eventually ended up a compromise politician.
19:15Okay, we've got a sign.
19:16But I would like to remember the Nitish Kumar of a previous era when he started off in politics.
19:20Okay.
19:21He genuinely, and I think to his credit, no one in all these years.
19:25Perhaps the hard work of the party.
19:26Will you quote Shankar and Thakur here?
19:28Okay, Robi.
19:29Sorry?
19:29Will you quote Shankar and Thakur here?
19:31What he said to him?
19:32Okay, I'm going to quickly call it conscience on call.
19:34Yeah, yeah, so I think Nitish Kumar was a politician of conscience.
19:39Eventually, his conscience was on call.
19:41All right, okay, we are going to end this discussion because ultimately the politics of it, the conspiracy theories, what
19:47to expect next, who's going to be the chief minister or the deputy chief minister, I would think one thing
19:51is for sure.
19:52The socialist troika of Bihar, be it Rambulas, Paswan, Lalu and now Nitish.
19:56That sun has set on that.
19:58Thank you for joining us up next to stay tuned with To The Point.
20:19We'll see you next time.
Comments