- 2 days ago
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar on Thursday filed his nomination papers for the Rajya Sabha polls, setting off intense speculation over who could succeed him.
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00:20Good evening, you're watching yet another edition of the Democratic Newsroom.
00:24We have a band of editors with us, Rajdeep Sardesai, Gaurav Sawant, Maria Shaquille and we are teleporting my colleague
00:30Sahil Joshi all the way from Mumbai.
00:33And while there is a full-blown war that we are covering in West Asia, a lot of political developments
00:41where domestic politics is concerned.
00:43Nitish Kumar no longer going to be the Chief Minister of Bihar. He's coming to Delhi on a Rajya Sabhar
00:48ticket.
00:48Will BJP now get their Chief Minister in place where Bihar is concerned?
00:53And importantly, has BJP once again been successful in sidelining and cannibalizing one of its own allies?
01:01That's up for discussion. Rajdeep, go first.
01:04Look, I have to give BJP huge credit for creating a de facto Magdarshak mandal.
01:10Whether it is their own party leaders and this time an ally.
01:14Nitish Kumar turned 75 a few days ago and the BJP has choreographed this brilliantly.
01:20Because now what have you done? You've killed three birds with one stone.
01:23You've got Nitish Kumar, you've given him an exit route, effective exit route out of Bihar politics after two decades
01:31of dominating in terms of Chief Ministership.
01:33You've finally got what the BJP always wanted in Bihar, the Chief Ministership.
01:38And in the last two elections, the BJP has got more seats than the JDU and yet they gave the
01:43Chief Ministership to the JDU.
01:45And number three, the BJP has sent a signal to the JDU in particular that we are in the driving
01:51seat.
01:52You are now in the side seat and not only to the JDU but to other allies as well.
01:57We've seen it in Maharashtra as well with the Shiv Sena.
01:59The BJP is very clear. This is their moment in Indian politics.
02:03They will set the rules of the game and Nitish Kumar, whether it's called an honourable exit, dishonourable exit, Rajya
02:11Sava, it was inevitable.
02:12His health condition was such that frankly I think this should have happened some while ago but they needed his
02:18face.
02:18The only negative you might sign is that the only ism in politics is opportunism.
02:24The BJP needed Nitish Kumar's chehra for the Bihar elections of 2025.
02:30They used the chehra. Now they don't need the chehra. Chehra has been put in the Rajya Sava.
02:34And so about Nitish Kumar. Nitish Kumar also needed BJP.
02:37Sure, sure. But I mean, you know, let's be honest, Maria.
02:41The BJP could not have won this election without Nitish Kumar, right?
02:45And Nitish Kumar needed the BJP. Unlike in 2020, I'm only using the words you gave me which have stuck
02:53in my mind that then he was seen as baggage, this time he was seen as luggage.
02:58But he's back as baggage and he's been now shunted.
03:01Because once the election's over, you don't need him.
03:03So that was the game plan on a lot.
03:04And that's why only I agree with Maria that Nitish Kumar also needed the BJP.
03:08But four months later, it's a one-way street.
03:12He's completely dispensable.
03:14To that extent, it is a bit of use and throw politics nicely packaged as an exit room.
03:20Let's not forget also that the BJP in Bihar was under the big shadow of Nitish Kumar.
03:26They were also growing under his shadow because they needed him as much.
03:30But look, I think right now it is BJP's moment in Bihar.
03:35They have to shed this perception that they are an upper caste party while they have OBCs and EBCs firmly
03:42in the leadership role.
03:43If you look at names, I'm giving some names here, Preeti.
03:46Nityanandrai, Samrat Chaudhary from the OBC.
03:49Then you have Sanjeev Chaurasia who is a Patna Diga MLA, one of the oldest MLAs of Patna Bihar Assembly,
03:55which is Prem Kumar from the EBCs.
03:57So, the BJP right now has that moment where they have to shed that image, like they have done in
04:03the state of Uttar Pradesh,
04:04that they are also a subaltern party, keeping in mind the social realities and the caste realities of Bihar.
04:10All right. You know, Gaurav, let me introduce another ism that we are coming to you, Sahil.
04:13Let me get Gaurav and I'm coming right to you.
04:15Coming right to you, Sahil.
04:17Another ism, Gaurav, that we can include in this is cannibalism because BJP might have grown under other regional political
04:25parties,
04:25but one can name Odisha, one can name Maharashtra, one can name Assam of all the allies that they have
04:31eventually cannibalized.
04:32So, I think that is a very negative way of looking at it.
04:36Even when BJP has done better than Nitish Kumar, they made him the Chief Minister.
04:41It's a slow process.
04:41Even when he had half the numbers.
04:44Which if Senniath started in the 90s.
04:46No, if you have half the numbers, you will destroy him when you have double numbers,
04:50but you did not look at figures.
04:52This time, of course, BJP has 99, JDU has 85, and yet he was made Chief Minister.
04:5720-20.
04:5889.
04:5889-85.
04:5989-85. That's exactly what I said.
05:01You know, in 2020, BJP had 74, JDU had 43. 43. Was that cannibalizing him? He was still made Chief
05:08Minister.
05:08This is perception in the minds of some people.
05:11Not him. Party.
05:12Party. You may be him and party. He was Chief Minister.
05:16And look at Maharashtra. Shinde did not have full numbers.
05:19Yet, Devendra Fadnavis became Deputy Chief Minister. Shinde was made Chief Minister.
05:24So, it is politics.
05:25So, power for the course.
05:26It's power for course. Every party has to grow.
05:28But, you know, it's cannibalizing. You are eating up everyone. You will eat everything.
05:33That may be somebody's perception.
05:35Every political party wants to grow.
05:37Every political party wants to be the party.
05:39Unless you are either the party or you are finished.
05:43If you have all old people, you will be in the Mark Darsak Bandal.
05:46But there are enough old people in the BJP as well.
05:48And they have a younger generation that's taking over.
05:50But, Sahil, to bring you in on this, this is the nature of politics.
05:53Sam, dam, dand, bhet, whatever it takes to grow your footprint.
05:58Well, you know, I have to talk about one very clear thing.
06:03What Gaurav was mentioning, even Rajdeep tried to mention it before.
06:07That earlier election, even when Nitish Kumar was half in numbers, BJP made him the Chief Minister.
06:13I'm sorry, the numbers were such that no government could have been formed without Nitish Kumar's support.
06:19Nitish had 42 number of MLAs.
06:21And if RJD or even BJP wanted to make the government, they have to have Nitish on their side.
06:27And that's why Nitish Kumar was made the Chief Minister, not other way around.
06:31Now, the number game is not in favor.
06:34No, no, please, please understand.
06:3689, 85.
06:37At this point of time, the number game is not in favor of Nitish Kumar.
06:40Even if Nitish Kumar wants, he cannot form the government with the help of RJD at this point of time.
06:45With the RJD's other weakness.
06:46Because BJP has 89.
06:47The alliance partners has enough numbers that the BJP can form the government on its own.
06:52The same thing happened in Maharashtra.
06:54The BJP reached 137.
06:56And they told Iknath Shinde that, look, we actually don't need anybody.
07:00We can form the government only with the smaller parties.
07:02You know, many could turn around and say, this is the beauty of politics.
07:05They waited for the opposition to be at its weakest in Bihar to go for the political kill.
07:09Exactly my point.
07:10And now they're in.
07:11No, exactly my point.
07:13So the biggest learning game for this in the whole scenario is that the smaller parties, especially parties like Nitish
07:21Kumar.
07:21I mean, everybody knew that this is going to happen with Iknath Shinde.
07:24But to do it with Nitish Kumar, it's a big gamble.
07:27The BJP looked for an opportunity.
07:29Everybody thought that it will happen in six months' time, seven months' time.
07:32But they looked for an opportunity.
07:34They thought that this is safe at this point of time.
07:36Sahil, the BJP and JT were nine months to settle down the government.
07:41And that's why they have done this.
07:42So this alliance has been there for 21 years.
07:46And is continuing.
07:49For all these 21 years, the BJP was under Nitish Kumar's shadow.
07:55And it served Nitish Kumar's narrative when he carved out non-Yadav OBCs, when he spoke about the Mahadalits, the
08:04EBCs, because then it was him setting narrative away from Lalu Yadav.
08:09He wanted to ensure that the caste battle lines that were there in the 1990s, Bihar is not seen in
08:152005 onwards, when Nitish became the chief minister.
08:19That served his purpose.
08:21BJP was seen as the party only around the upper caste.
08:24But look at what has happened in 20 years.
08:26BJP today in Bihar has as many EBCs and OBCs as any other political party.
08:32Be it the J.D.U. or the A.D.U.
08:33They have the leaders.
08:34One second, Sahil, let me get Rajdeep into this conversation.
08:36They have the leaders, but they do not have the vote back.
08:38The government is going to continue to grow.
08:40Whenever the people fight on their own, their strike rate is not as good as the big fight with the
08:45J.D.U.
08:45Sahil, I'll come right back to you.
08:46Let me bring in. Rajdeep wants to come in for a quick word.
08:48Rajdeep, whether we like it or we don't like it, we can read it as Sam, Dam, Dand,
08:52opposition at the weakest, BJP going for the kill.
08:55But this is a cautionary tale for smaller regional outfits.
08:59Look at the history of the BJP from Assam to Odisha to Maharashtra.
09:03I don't even need to elucidate.
09:05It's right there.
09:06The Congress has done that as well.
09:06No, the fact is, the BJP is doing what the Congress used to do.
09:10Yes, exactly.
09:11One minute.
09:1250s, 60s, 70s, if you see, the Congress was an expansionist party.
09:16The BJP today is the same.
09:18The irony is, since she mentioned the Congress, what she forgets, my friend Maria,
09:22when Congress tied up with regional parties, the regional parties often grew at the expense of the Congress.
09:28But that was when there was a so-called secularism to keep BJP out.
09:31No, no, no, it's nothing to keep.
09:32The BJP was never there at that time.
09:34The fact is, over the years, when the Congress tied up, and the classic example is Tamil Nadu.
09:40When the Congress ceded the space to DMK in a 1971 election, since then, the Congress has never come back
09:46to power on its own in Tamil Nadu.
09:48The Congress, when it tied up or struck deals of convenience with the regional parties,
09:53the regional parties grew at the expense of the Congress party.
09:56The BJP has learned from that lesson.
09:58What has the BJP done?
09:59This was a Hindi, Hindu, Hindustan party till 30, 35 years ago in the 1980s.
10:04It has consciously looked for areas of growth.
10:06How do you grow in some areas?
10:08You piggyback on a regional party, take full advantage of sharing power with them,
10:13and then a moment comes when you become larger than them.
10:16And I can give you examples.
10:18Maharashtrabadi Gomantak party in Goa.
10:20The BJP was very much the secondary player.
10:24Today is the dominant player.
10:25AGP in Assam.
10:27Look at Maharashtra with the Shiv Sena.
10:29As long as Bal Thakre was there, the BJP knew that it would have to play a subordinate door to
10:34Mr. Thakre.
10:35To a limit, even BJD in Odisha.
10:36Mr. Thakre passes away in 2012.
10:39By 2025, the BJP is party number one.
10:41I am not saying, I am not attaching a judgmental call here.
10:45This is what politics is about.
10:46When you rise, someone else comes under your shadow.
10:50And that's exactly what's happened.
10:52These regional parties and Nithish Kumar.
10:53Just one last point on Nithish Kumar.
10:56I have always felt this.
10:57This is the same Nithish Kumar who resigned as chief minister in Bihar when Narendra Modi ji was set to
11:05become the prime ministerial candidate of the BJP.
11:08How have things changed in 12 years?
11:10In 12 years, Nithish Kumar now has to take the crutch of a Rajya Sabha to come to Delhi with
11:16Mr. Modi as Neta number one.
11:18In his own way, in his own little way, Mr. Modi has got his revenge.
11:22But can I add Rajdeep to it?
11:23Can I just add one line to it?
11:24Mr. Modi has revenge on his way and on his way for Delhi.
11:28But Rajdeep, there's also a...
11:28Because Nithish refused to attend a rally once because Mr. Modi was there.
11:32But Rajdeep, there's also a cycle of karma there.
11:34Look how Nithish Kumar had treated George Fernandes.
11:38Exactly the same trajectory.
11:40Go ahead, Gaurav.
11:41I'm sorry.
11:41To the best of my knowledge, the BJP is not treating Nithish Kumar like that.
11:45They're treating him with respect.
11:46He's come to Rajya Sabha.
11:48Point one, point two.
11:49There is a generational shift.
11:51Okay.
11:51I mean, it's not that everybody will hang on to the coattails of an aging party or an aging individual.
11:57If there's a generational shift, Gaurav, then the chief minister should be the JDU.
12:00If there is a generational shift, then because of JDU...
12:03If you remember, BJP is not a generational shift.
12:05No, but BJP is not a generational shift.
12:08It is a generational shift.
12:09This is a permanent point.
12:10No, no, just a small...
12:11One lesson, and here I agree with my friend Gaurav.
12:13One of the lessons of politics, I think, is that every party should in India have some system of a
12:18generational shift.
12:19The BJP, to its credit, has achieved that to a large extent.
12:22Look at all their chief ministers.
12:23One minute.
12:25One minute.
12:26One minute.
12:26All in their 50s.
12:27And the fact is that the Congress, because it is out of power, is unable to...
12:32Okay, I don't have much time.
12:34What do you do except to Jenerians and octogenarians in that party?
12:36Sahil, quickly make your point.
12:37The BJP had the same problem, by the way, when they were in the opposition.
12:39Let's allow Sahil to come in.
12:40Sahil, make your point.
12:42Is Sahil with us?
12:43You know, it's a tremendous risk what the BJP has taken at this point of time.
12:48Because to remove Nitesh Kumar and bring their own chief minister.
12:51I agree with Maria that they have a lot of leaders from the EBC and OBC categories,
12:56but they still do not have that food bank.
12:58And that is the reason why they needed Nitesh Kumar along their side at this point of time.
13:02You know, Sahil, Sahil, again.
13:03They are ready to take this plunge because they have over years and nine months on their side.
13:08And that's why they are taking this risk at this point of time.
13:11Lalu also needed Nitesh Kumar in 2015.
13:14Because the fight in Bihar is not yet over.
13:15The fight in Bihar is not yet over.
13:18Even in Maharashtra, BJP has a lot of Maratha leaders, but still they need Pawars.
13:23Still they need NCP on their side.
13:24Okay, Maria.
13:24So, we have to wait and see what happened today.
13:26So, 2015, when you are talking about, at that time, Lalu Yadav needed Nitesh Kumar.
13:32He was that very essential third pillar of Bihar politics, almost a necessity.
13:36But then, as we have seen, if in 1990s, had Lalu Yadav not prepared the ground, Nitesh would not have
13:44arrived.
13:45Nitesh has prepared the ground for the arrival of the BJP.
13:47Bihar right now is ready to accept the BJP for a simple reason.
13:51Rajdeep, let me just finish quickly.
13:53Because the matrix which Nitesh enjoyed is now firmly with the BJP.
13:57Can I ask you a simple question?
13:59Yes.
13:59Therefore, if the matrix is over, what happens to the JDU?
14:03Is the JDU over?
14:04Be honest with me.
14:05There are enough people in the JDU today who have one foot actually in the BJP.
14:10Correct?
14:10Yes.
14:10So, what happens to the JDU?
14:12This is a question I ask in general to the Shiv Sena also.
14:14What happens to the Shiv Sena?
14:16What happens to these regional parties or in this case,
14:19I also ask for a question.
14:19It was seem to represent a sort of part of the Mandelite movement.
14:23What happens to that?
14:24Has BJP combined Mandir and Mandar under one umbrella in Bihar?
14:28They have done it.
14:30In Bihar, one day, I have finally done it.
14:33I have three minutes.
14:34Got to make your point and then I'll come back.
14:35I quickly want to say that it is not,
14:37if these regional parties haven't been able to throw up a second line of defense,
14:41I don't think it's fair to blame the BJP.
14:42Who is JDU's second line of leadership that's going to come up?
14:46If BJP has a second line of leadership and the JDU and the BJP,
14:50you know, they come together and operate together, it's happening.
14:53It is a cautionary tale for regional parties to have a situation.
14:57In your case, to have a second line of leadership, which is heavy, I'll give you your own example.
15:02Okay, Sahil, very quickly, you have 30 seconds.
15:05Yeah, it is not the question of leadership.
15:07What is going to happen to the people who were voting for Janta Adal United?
15:11What is going to happen to that?
15:12A huge chunk of the OBC voters, a lot of Muslim voters.
15:16A lot of Muslim voters, a huge chunk of OBC voters that voted for the JDU.
15:20They will vote for whoever delivers better for them.
15:21They voted for Nitish Kumar, they voted for Nitish Kumar, 2015, 2015, the same, 2015, when JDU, RJD won together,
15:33people voted for what?
15:34Mahagat Bandhan, what happened two and a half years later when Nitish Kumar walked out of that alliance and formed
15:39an alliance with the BJP?
15:40Because the leader was telling us to vote in a particular way.
15:44No, no, that leads open the question and then Sahil is right.
15:46What is going to happen to that?
15:47No, no, Sahil has a point.
15:48What is going to happen to that?
15:49There is a risk factor associated.
15:51The BJP in Bihar is not like UP where it is still that over...
15:56Just a minute.
15:57As we've seen for 20 years in Bihar, if two sides out of these three pillars came together,
16:02either Lalu and Nitish or BJP and Nitish, they won.
16:05Nitish was the glue in a way who ensured political power.
16:09Have we reached a stage, and therefore it's an open question which will be decided probably four years from now.
16:15Have we reached a stage where you don't need Nitish Kumar anymore and the BJP can go into the next
16:21election without Nitish Kumar involved in the campaign?
16:23There was something, I want to just throw up one question in the last three minutes.
16:26In the last three minutes, because there was something that we discussed at length, which was Nitish Kumar will go
16:32of his own timing of choosing.
16:34Is this his timing of choosing?
16:35Of course not.
16:35Have he chosen this?
16:36No.
16:36No, no, look, I can tell you for a fact, because I know, I mean, from whatever I heard, Nitish
16:42was not willing to go right away.
16:44He thought he would go, he would choose his time.
16:46But in politics, you can't always choose your time.
16:49So that's not happening.
16:49I think, let me be fair to the BJP.
16:52The BJP believes, and they have reason too, that for the last 10 years in particular,
16:55they put all their weight into Bihar in terms of their, of resources, in terms of bringing in new leaders.
17:03The benefits were accruing to Nitish Kumar.
17:05Now they feel the time has come.
17:07Last one minute.
17:07Maria has covered Bihar.
17:10I want to get Maria in.
17:11And you know, Maria, with Nitish Kumar leaving the way in which he has, is this what was expected by
17:18the, I'm not talking about the JDU, by the people who voted for the JDU and Nitish Kumar?
17:22This is definitely not his timing of choosing.
17:25Look, Preeti, if you look at the tweet, I'm going to what, with what has been put out in the
17:29public domain.
17:30Of course, conspiracy theories are doing the rounds.
17:32In Patna, I've been speaking to a lot of bureaucrats.
17:34What are the conspiracy theories?
17:35A lot of theories.
17:36I mean, it's not for, you know, perhaps for journalists to speak about it until unless it's formalized.
17:41But let's go with what Nitish Kumar has said, that he wants to be part of all the four houses,
17:45be it the assembly or the legislative council in Bihar, which has happened.
17:49He has been the member of the Lok Sabha.
17:51Now he's entering the Rajya Sabha.
17:52So I'm going to go with what Nitish Kumar has said it on report.
17:55His son is going to be brought in, as they say, as Deputy Chief Minister, as it's being speculated.
18:00And then let's see, look, every party wants to grow.
18:03So once again, every party wants to grow.
18:05It doesn't have to be cannibalization.
18:06They're growing at their own hard work.
18:08And then the voters decide who they want to vote for.
18:11Did JDU then cannibalize BJP for all those 20 years?
18:14But they did not allow them to grow either.
18:16Also with the son coming in, right?
18:18Ultimately, it used to be that you have to prove your mettle.
18:20If you are good, accepted, you are there.
18:22The son is completely out of politics.
18:24He's not in touch with the carder of the JDU.
18:26But he's been brought in as the Deputy Chief Minister.
18:28No, no, not yet.
18:29Not yet.
18:30In all probability.
18:32Okay.
18:3220 seconds, Sahil.
18:3320 seconds, Rajdeep.
18:34Sahil, you have exactly 20 seconds.
18:36Go ahead.
18:38Well, as I said earlier, okay, Nitish Kumar is out of Bihar.
18:42But will his voters be with him or will they vote for the BJP?
18:46Now they're out in open.
18:49They'll be voting after four and a half years.
18:53Okay, 20 seconds, 20 seconds, Rajdeep.
18:55Look, I think Nitish Kumar was a rather remarkable politician.
18:58And I think through all this, you have to give him credit in a state like Bihar to the longevity
19:02that he had to try to make an attempt, at least certainly in the initial years, as Sushasan Babu.
19:08Eventually, I think politics and the politics of compromise caught up with Nitish Kumar.
19:13And he eventually ended up a compromise politician.
19:15Okay, we've got a sign.
19:16But I would like to remember the Nitish Kumar of a previous era when he started off in politics.
19:20Okay.
19:21He genuinely, and I think to his credit, no one in all these years.
19:25Perhaps the hard work of the party.
19:26Will you quote Shankar and Thakur here?
19:28Okay, Robi.
19:29Sorry?
19:29Will you quote Shankar and Thakur here?
19:31What he said to him?
19:32Okay, I'm going to quickly call it conscience on call.
19:34Yeah, yeah, so I think Nitish Kumar was a politician of conscience.
19:39Eventually, his conscience was on call.
19:41All right, okay, we are going to end this discussion because ultimately the politics of it, the conspiracy theories, what
19:47to expect next, who's going to be the chief minister or the deputy chief minister, I would think one thing
19:51is for sure.
19:52The socialist troika of Bihar, be it Rambulas, Paswan, Lalu and now Nitish.
19:56That sun has set on that.
19:58Thank you for joining us up next to stay tuned with To The Point.
20:19We'll see you next time.
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