- 4 months ago
Psephologists at the India Today Mumbai Conclave 2025 convened to analyse the electoral landscape ahead of the Bihar elections slated for November 2025.
Discussions highlighted the evolving political dynamics, particularly the traditional Muslim-Yadav (MY) caste equation, which was identified as a 'self-defeating argument' necessitating a broader coalition for electoral success.
Discussions highlighted the evolving political dynamics, particularly the traditional Muslim-Yadav (MY) caste equation, which was identified as a 'self-defeating argument' necessitating a broader coalition for electoral success.
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NewsTranscript
00:00Hello and welcome ladies and gentlemen once again to the India Today Mumbai conclave.
00:06After a long hiatus, we're back in election season. That's right. In a few days from now,
00:14the Bihar elections will be announced and the elections are expected in November this year.
00:20It's the last big battle of 2025, which is why my colleague Maria Shakir and I want to ask the
00:27question, who is winning the battle for Bihar? And to answer that question, I'm joined by three
00:34special guests. Amitabh Tiwari of Voter Vibes joins me. Yashwan Deshmukh of Sea Voter and Pradeep
00:43Gupta of Axis My India. So three sophologists are here, three pollsters are here. Before we go
00:52anywhere else, I want to ask all three of you after what happened in 2024, where almost
00:59all of you had egg on your face, which I would have presumed you're still wiping off. You're
01:04still going to start predict elections. Mr. Pradeep Gupta, you still want to predict elections
01:10after what happened in 2024, where you said Charso Par that ended up in 280, 290?
01:18Go ahead.
01:19Rajdeep.
01:21I won't make you cry this time.
01:23No, no, I'm telling you, I'm replying you, don't worry on that front.
01:27Who will stop playing after losing one or two matches?
01:30We need to play on. And nevertheless, as you mentioned, the wiping the axe out, just to
01:40once again, I'm trying to, I'm not trying to defend our community or myself. See, for
01:48predicting any election, what is the prime objective? Who is likely to win the election?
01:54Isn't it? And even during Lok Sabha 2024, we have predicted NDA 360 odd seats to 400 seats,
02:06as you rightly pointed out, and they, NDA, ended up winning 293 seats. So still NDA formed
02:13the government and the first very objective of predicting the election was somehow. We could
02:20not predict it as we are known for the accurate numbers, etc., etc., which is fine and fair.
02:27Okay. Yashwan Deshmukh, you're going to be brave enough to predict who's winning Bihar?
02:33Yeah, I mean, that's normal. I mean, that's what we do. That's what we do for a job. That's
02:39what we do for a living. So, yeah, the first question, because it was directed more towards
02:45Pradeep. I would presume so, because I'm a, I still like to call me myself a print guy,
02:51where I started my journey with India today, you know, 23 years back, mood of the nation. So,
02:56335, yeah, maybe you can say that even 335 was a few X.
03:03No, no, no, I made an omelette. Okay. And I ate it up and then, then I'm here sitting it up again.
03:10We won't do a post, we won't do a post post about 2024. Let's look ahead. I want to remind viewers
03:17that my colleague, Maria Shaqeel is from Bihar. So, she knows Bihar inside out before Maria takes
03:22over. I'm not asking Amitabh the question of 2024 because he was cleverer. He didn't predict what
03:27would happen. So, he doesn't have to face the, the egg and the omelette. But let's start with Bihar
03:33and tell you what happened in the last three assembly elections in Bihar. So, you have a sense
03:39of why Bihar is such a difficult state at times to understand. What happened in 2010 was a clear
03:47landslide for the NDA. The JDU, BJP just swept Bihar like never before. 115 to JDU,
03:5591 to BJP in a 234 member assembly. Come 2015, just the reverse happened. The Mahagadwandan
04:04or the opposition swept it with Lalu Prasad and Nitish coming close, forging an alliance. Nitish
04:11is the common factor as you will see. By 2020 though, it was as tight as it could get. Just
04:17a 12,000 vote difference between the two main alliances. So, three elections, three very
04:23different verdicts. Amitabh Tiwari, is Bihar therefore a nightmare for sephologists or is
04:30it a relatively easier state that wherever two out of the three parties align, the major
04:35parties, JDU, RJD and BJP. If two go on one side, game set and match. It's like a triangle,
04:42two have to go on one side and you win the election. More often than not.
04:46See, it is a trickier state in the sense that in both 2015 and 2020, most of the pollsters have got
04:54it wrong. Because in 2015, it was generally believed that NDA would win. And in 2020,
05:00it was a consensus that Mahagadwandan is winning. But NDA won the elections in the end.
05:05So, it's a tricky state for pollsters because there are many parties involved here. There are not just
05:10these top three parties but many smaller parties which bring an additional vote share to different
05:16alliances. And most of these smaller parties are with different partners and different elections.
05:21Correct? So, this time around also, it looks to be a very tight battle. And we have one and a half
05:27months of campaign left. Elections have not been announced yet. And I just want to add that,
05:31you know, make Pradeep Gupta smile. He actually got 2015 right. Yes. When everyone else was predicting
05:38an NDA victory, there was a Modi wave after 2014. Pradeep Gupta got that election right.
05:44So, something is wrong, something is wrong. That's life. And Pradeep also had spoken about 2020 Bihar.
05:53Of course, you know, the elections, many say Rajdeep, that shifted from the first phase to the second
05:59phase. And the sense was that in the second phase, more women came out to vote. So, let's look at the
06:03second slide because this becomes important in the context of Bihar. Because on 27th of this month,
06:08close to 80 lakh women of Bihar will get 10,000 rupees each. With the direct benefit transfer
06:16scheme having been thrown in into this entire mix of caste and coalitions, Bihar has become even more
06:23tricky to predict. Let's look at this number now. We are looking at northern and eastern Bihar which are
06:28dominated by shades of red and orange, which actually indicate that women outvoted men by
06:35significant margin. In fact, in Baissi, it is almost like 22 percent more women turn out. Elections
06:41were actually moving from this side to upwards and that is the reason why it became difficult to
06:47predict the elections in 2020. When we look at western and southern part of Bihar, that's where
06:56men perhaps voted more and that is Bikram minus 11.2 percent. But women in general have been that
07:04very important factor in the context of Bihar and that's why I'll bring you again, Pradeep Gupta,
07:10because when you speak about 2020, the vote share or vote difference between the NDA and the Mahagat
07:16Bandhan is just around 12,000 votes. Many would say that that is largely the vote that administration
07:23brings in if the elections shift, you know, when the counting process begins and it starts moving.
07:30But with direct benefit transfer coming in in this election, has it become even more difficult?
07:38I would not say difficult, but I would say it makes at least one of the party or government lives easier to
07:47predict. In the sense, if this is working out the direct transfer of money to the woman's account
07:56and if women are shifting in bulk, then our life and everybody's life is much easier to predict.
08:03But are they really shifting? Won't you say that they are already captive audience of Nitish?
08:07That is something, Maria, you are trying to ask who is winning or if they are shifting. I wish I could answer
08:14this question. Even at this point of time, I would say even Bihar's voters do not know who to vote.
08:24That is the kind of dynamics playing out in the battleground of Bihar.
08:30But are we right in saying, and Yashwan, you can take this, over the last 10 years or maybe even longer,
08:37whoever gets a majority of the women votes wins. Delhi was a slight exception,
08:42Arvind Kejriwal and the BJP were almost neck and neck in women. In fact, Arvind may have had a,
08:46the Aam Admi Party may have had a slight edge, but by and large, Mamata Banerji, Narendra Modi himself,
08:52Shivrat Singh Chauhan, here in Maharashtra last year, Ladki Bahint scheme made a huge difference.
08:59Would you agree that whoever gets the woman vote and Nitish Kumar has consistently got a large section of
09:04the woman vote for his various schemes, has a huge advantage in Indian elections today,
09:10that the real factor to look at in an election is the M factor, not Muslims, but Mahila.
09:17Absolutely. I mean, it goes without saying. I mean, but there is a very, very significant difference,
09:24as far as the M factor of Bihar is concerned, when you compare it or look through the lenses of
09:29certain Madhya Pradesh, Ladki Bahint scheme or Ladli Bahint scheme of Madhya.
09:35Nitish Kumar is not Shivrat Singh Chauhan, Nitish Kumar is not Eknath Shinde, for a simple reason.
09:43Nitish happens to be, at least in my living memory, the first person with a very, very significant
09:50approach towards the female vote bank. He started 25 years back, Rajdeep, when he distributed bicycles and
09:59Poshak, as we call it, the uniforms, to the school-going girls in Bihar. And why I feel it is very
10:07different, because Mr. Shinde's Yojana or Shivrat Singh Chauhan's Yojana was out of the blue one-time
10:13payment thing, while when I look at the brand Nitish Kumar, the girl, the daughters of Bihar,
10:19which got a bicycle and the uniform 25 years back, are now the housemakers, the entrepreneurs,
10:25the mothers now. And their connection, emotional connect with Nitish Kumar is altogether very
10:33different, what an emotional connect of female voters in Maharashtra with Mr. Shinde or with
10:39Mr. Shivrat Singh Chauhan. Even though Mr. Shivrat Singh Chauhan was more popularly known as his mama,
10:44but no, Nitish Kumar's personal connect on the female voter is way more intense and way more
10:52deep-rooted than any other politician in India. Yes. Jivika, Jivika, Didi, all that has been very,
11:00very, you know, gender-driven, Rajdeep. And that is something that you sense on ground. And when
11:06Yashwan points out about that 25-year legacy of Nitish Kumar, it will be about the women voters.
11:13Remember Sharab Bandhi, you know, that was also done… Exactly, people… Exactly, Sharab Bandhi,
11:18it may be a fiscally speaking, it may be a stupid policy for many, but if you will talk to the females,
11:25almost 8 or 9 out of 10 would be supporting that policy. And am I right in saying women now vote far
11:31more than they did even 30-40 years ago? Yes. Women turnout has grown. Is it easy for a
11:36cephalogist though to get and gauge the women voter? It's difficult. Politically,
11:42politically people say… Because politically people say what Nitish Kumar is doing on the eve of
11:46an election is a total bribe. I'm putting 10,000 rupees in the pockets of women. Others will say it's
11:52gender empowerment. Do you believe it's easy for a cephalogist? We don't even need to know the numbers
11:58in such a situation. See, it is difficult because when you go out on the field or when you are doing
12:05surveys through calling, fewer females turn up to discuss with you because political discussions
12:12many females would not want to do on a face to face basis. One data point here which is very
12:17interesting is that on 167 seats, the women turnout was more than men and NDA won 99 of those seats.
12:26This entire chunk of red which was on the top, the NDA swept North Bihar, literally swept North Bihar
12:35including Simanchal which has a higher minority population. So this shows what Yashwan Ji and
12:41Pradeep Ji has been saying that the women vote can be the king maker again and this 10,000 rupees is a
12:49big big amount from Bihar's perspective where the per capita income is also not rupees 10,000. The per capita
12:56income is only 6,000 to 7,000. Bribing of voters, yes, you have a point but that's what happened in MP,
13:03one can argue, that's what happened in Maharashtra here. Who would have said that NDA was winning 234 seats
13:10during the election? That's what happened in Jharkhand. Correct. So this is something which needs to be
13:15discussed, we need to discuss as a whole and even the Supreme Court or the Election Commission needs to work
13:21on this because if NDA wins Bihar then this becomes a recipe or a formula for winning elections which we
13:28all have to think about. And women again are caste neutral as they are seen. Let's move to the other
13:34slide that we have and this is about the caste because we say often in the context of Bihar that
13:40it's pure arithmetic which is at work here. Let's put out the caste numbers and this becomes important
13:49because it is often said that for Nitish or NDA it is Mahila plus, their MY is Mahila plus youth. Again,
13:59Bihar in that bracket of 18 to 29 age group, there is a huge number close to 40 percent. So this is the
14:07caste calculation or caste axis of Bihar. Yadavs are around 27 percent and Yadav plus Muslims which
14:16is coming to run 35 percent would be the captive vote of Lalu Yadav's party which is RJD. So we are
14:24talking about Tejasvi here. Koedi, Kurmi, non-Yadav OBCs again become important because that is
14:31again a significant number of 15 percent which moves with Nitish Kumar. So these are basically 105
14:40seats out of 234 where in the last three elections people from the same caste have won. So caste,
14:47it's almost as if people in Bihar don't caste their vote, they vote their caste. Do you agree with that
14:54Pradeep Gupta? Between Mahila and caste is the easiest way to decipher Bihar? 105 out of 234
15:02seats in the last three elections, the same caste member has won the election.
15:06In case of Bihar, Rajdeep, this caste factor hold more good than the women factor. Women is
15:14anywhere and everywhere. It's like a phenomena. Why I am saying you caste? Because Bihar is the only state
15:21state in that term where Yadav and Muslim combined contributes more than 31-32 percentage of the
15:31total vote chunk. But the beauty here is unlike Uttar Pradesh or even West Bengal or even Assam. Assam also
15:39has 30 percent Muslim and West Bengal too have. But here in Bihar particularly the equation is in such a way
15:51spread across the Bihar, all the six regions of Bihar, all the six regions of Bihar, M plus Y is in the axis of 27 percent.
16:01Even in both the, which is sometime you say that, you know, Mithlanchal and Bhojpur, even in these two regions,
16:13also it is in the axis of 27 percent of M, Y combined which is Muslim and Yadav. So this is the reason why
16:21the en masse vote of RJD has always been intact in last 30 to 35 years.
16:27So are we saying, Yashwan Deshmukh, that in Bihar in that sense remains the last Mandal bastion?
16:33Uttar Pradesh has seen some element of flux in caste alliances but in Bihar rock solid. Muslim Yadav
16:40firmly with Tejasvi Yadav and the RJD, by and large the upper caste have remained firmly with the BJP
16:48and the OBCs and the Dalits are the ones who have shifted in recent times to some extent to the BJP.
16:55But by and large Bihar has to be seen through the prism of caste like no other Indian state today.
17:01Would you agree with that?
17:03Not fully. I mean, see, UP has been seeing that the Muslim Yadav equation in a similar way,
17:09but Akhilesh experimented with MY+. In the last Lok Sabha election, his success came around only because
17:16outside the five members, immediate members, he did not give any ticket to sixth Yadav candidate.
17:22Outside few Muslim candidates, he refused to give tickets to Muslim candidates. So yes,
17:27he kind of tried to experiment and he benefited out of it. Now it remains to be seen how much,
17:33how much of this experiment can Tejasvi Yadav afford to do in Bihar. However…
17:38So is that the challenge that for Tejasvi Yadav, he has to go beyond M1? Of course, because this is…
17:44Muslim plus Yadav is 35%, much greater than UP, but he still needs additional support from other groups.
17:50Razdeep, it's a self-defeating equation. When was the last time Lalu Yadav Ji won in Bihar?
17:58Do you remember that? The only person who has been winning Bihar is Nitish Kumar. Without Nitish Kumar,
18:05nobody is able to win. Why? Because he significantly holds to some voter which he takes as a pendulum
18:12this way or that way and that way. So MY on its own is a self-defeating argument. That's the bottom line.
18:20Can they do MY+. Otherwise, every party in India actually has some or other basic caste equation
18:28working in its favour in different states. That's the social fabric. Let's not forget it.
18:33Caste is the social fabric. So more than Bihar, it is the Tamil Nadu. Look at the Tamil Nadu politics.
18:39What kind of casteist politics that you have… I think Tamil Nadu beats Bihar hands down as far as
18:46the caste equations are concerned. But Bihar gets to, you know, get all the wrong brownies in that way.
18:53That it is a caste-driven politics. So while I am simply trying to say,
18:57yes, you are correct in your assessment that Bihar remains struck over there. But it is a self-defeating
19:03construct because they cannot win Bihar by MY. They have to go for MY+. That plus has to be youth,
19:11women as the new one or the middle class. As Achilles Shadow won in 2012 in Uttar Pradesh,
19:17it was youth, women and the middle class that made him win the election.
19:21And there is that thousand rupees also which is going to be released, Rajdeep,
19:24for the unemployed youth of Bihar. So do you think that youth can again be a constituency this time
19:31around? And if they are so critical, then will there be some kind of nostalgia for a chief minister
19:40who brought on the surface the sub-national identity? Although right now Nitish Kumar is largely
19:46missing from the political scene. I think just one data point, if I add here. On 105 seats,
19:52the same caste is winning, has been winning in three elections. On 113 seats, two out of three
19:58elections, the same caste wins. So it becomes 218 actually out of 243. Anyways, so youth, if we measure the
20:08amount of anti-incumbency, the youth show the highest anti-incumbency because they consume everything on
20:15social media. However, unlike 2020, when Tejasvi Yadav got a lot of support from youth, this time
20:24around, even Prashant Kishore is getting traction amongst youth. So the youth which is disgruntled,
20:31let's say, with the Nitish Kumar regime is getting divided between two camps, Tejasvi and Prashant Kishore.
20:38Prashant Kishore has also by consistently targeting the education status of Tejasvi Yadav has impacted
20:47his brand image amongst the youth. Because youth prefer educated leaders etc. Correct. And 30% chunk is
20:55still with NDA. So NDA still has 30, 30-35 with Mahagadbandan and 10-15 with Jansuraj party.
21:03So let's, let's look at that, the Prashant Kishore factor, the PK factor. There is always an X factor
21:09in Indian election. No Indian, two Indian elections are the same. The one new factor in Bihar this time
21:15is Prashant Kishore. The election strategist turned politician and his Jansuraj party. So this was a
21:22poll done by Amitabh Tiwari. It's a catty poll so done over phone presumably. The question was asked,
21:29who is your preferred choice for chief minister? And the findings are very interesting. Who is your
21:35preferred choice of chief minister? Now look at it. We are going from February to June. Tejasvi Yadav is
21:42still number one, which is 34.6%, which is roughly paralleling the Muslim Yadav vote of Bihar.
21:51Nitish Kumar came in at 17.4, half of that. But you've also got to add Chirak Paswan's 9.9.
21:58He's part of this Gadbandhan and we'll speak about him in a moment. Samrat Chaudhary, the BJP's face
22:03there, 9.6. So add that, Nitish Kumar and Tejasvi Yadav are more or less in the same bracket. If you
22:12add Samrat Chaudhary and Chirak Paswan, but look at Prashant Kishore. He is, as per this survey,
22:18the preferred CM candidate of 18%. Now at 18%, if that vote was to, actually if the preference
22:25was to translate into votes, he certainly becomes an X factor. He has reached 20% in the latest.
22:32Yeah. So is Prashant Kishore an X factor? Is he punching above his weight? Yashwan Deshmukh,
22:38do you believe that Bihar could well see a new kingmaker in Prashant Kishore?
22:43Well, he has got the traction. In the, in the last, last months, it is,
22:46he has actually got 21%. So he has, yeah, yeah, yeah. He has all already gone,
22:51reached the 20% mark. And is it mainly the youth? It's mainly the youth. And mainly the youth and
22:56majority of his votes are coming from the youths of NDA at this point of time. So he has got the
23:02traction, no doubt. And I, I believe that the similar kind of traction was visible in 2013 for
23:08Aam Admi Party. Now, but there is a big difference. As Amitabh just said that, you know,
23:14Delhi being a caste agnostic metropolitan city where Aam Admi Party could gain that traction and
23:20convert that into vote and seat. I'm not very sure how much Prashant can, can actually convert his
23:28fraction of his personal popularity into vote for his party and those votes into seats for his party.
23:34That I am not very sure of, but otherwise, he definitely has captured the imagination of the
23:41youth in Bihar. And also the migrants, by the way, I mean, it's funny and odd that big number of migrant
23:48voters are or Biharis that live outside India and outside Bihar. You know, I live in Dubai and
23:57and it's a very small thing to know at one of the local eateries where I do go to eat
24:03Pau Bhaji and the two chefs, one for Munger and one from Patna. I was just talking to them.
24:09And they said to me that they did not say PK. You know, and that is interesting because if he is
24:24capturing the imagination of the youth who have migrated, not just within India, but outside India,
24:31that means he is gaining the traction. My only thing, and which I am always putting up a question mark,
24:37can he translate the traction into votes and can the vote be good enough to translate?
24:42Let me ask that to Pradeep Gupta. Can Prashant Kishore translate traction into votes in his first election?
24:48Is Prashant Kishore fighting this election to lose or is he a factor? Can traction translate into votes?
25:05Can he be a Arvind Khejriwal-like figure? First election, super hit.
25:09Rajdeep, you have answered your question yourself. First election, second election and third election.
25:15For that matter, I always keep on saying, anything in life you begin, it needs 15 years to graduate.
25:24Whether you do a simple graduation by starting as a standard one student and 12 plus three,
25:30you need 15 years. So this is what it is. Now the question is how much vote share he will gain this
25:37time? And whatever he gained this time, whatever that number be, where this is coming from? Because
25:43this is the first time he is contesting the election in Bihar Assembly. So this is the question
25:49remains to be answered. And as far as youth and women, still I would say in Bihar, still whether it's
25:56youth or the women, they belong to certain caste. So beyond caste, if somebody is... I cannot imagine
26:06why Bihar voting beyond caste fault. Because Prashant himself is upper caste,
26:13do you believe therefore that that is his biggest challenge? Can he break the caste barriers in Bihar?
26:20See, if you see Azeem Premji study, it says 55% of voters in India prefer leaders from their own caste.
26:28That number is 57% in Bihar. So it is difficult. But on the positive side, 43% people are not voting on caste.
26:36They are voting on development and other issues. So this 43% chunk is largely he is targeting at.
26:43However, as Yashwan Ji said and Pradeep Ji have said, that 2021% CM ratings is fine. But how many people are
26:53voting on the basis of the CM phase? That's the bigger question, correct? Everybody is not voting on
26:59the CM phase. If everybody is voting on the CM phase, then his vote share will be 21%. But in Bihar, people vote in
27:06the name of leaders. In Lok Sabha election, only 10% people voted for the prime ministerial phase.
27:14So if a Lok Sabha election can become localized, which it became localized in three states, which led to
27:20the decline of the tally of the BJP, then Bihar is a hyper-local election. Leadership, I would guess,
27:28maybe 15% in our surveys, only 15% people are saying that they are going to vote for the CM phase.
27:36He can be a vote cutter. Is it a triangular contest? No, because for triangular contests,
27:41you need 15-20% vote share. I don't see him getting that at this point.
27:46Okay, so if Bihar is a bipolar contest, something that we have seen for several decades now,
27:52Pradeep Gupta, my question then would be that where is Nitish Kumar standing in all this?
27:58Because let's be clear, this is an election which will mark the end of an era in real sense,
28:04because all the JP's, protégies will be out of the political scene.
28:09See, Maria, when you say Nitish Kumar, when you are asking Nitish Kumar, I am sure you are asking
28:15Nitish Kumar minus NDA or BJP. You know, these are the two phenomena and this time,
28:22what is the situation on the ground? I can easily see that.
28:25But still, there is a large chunk among the NDA votes who are hoping somehow or the other
28:45that somehow this time it will become BJP's CM.
28:49This time it will become BJP's CM.
28:50Because in Odisha, in non-Hindy speaking,
28:54there is also a government of BJP itself.
28:57So they are somehow aiming this and this is going to be a very big factor, whether,
29:03see, it is okay that there is an anti-incumbency.
29:07But where to switch? Where to switch? In the order, one is the BJP,
29:13second is the RJD or the Deja Sri Yadau and third is the Prasant Kisor.
29:17This is something very interesting in this Bihar election.
29:20Okay, we haven't discussed one aspect before I ask each of you to give your predictions,
29:25which is vote chori. Rahul Gandhi went, has gone on a Bihar vote adhikar yatra.
29:30Now, in recent elections, Congress has been the Kamzor Kadi.
29:34Last time they contested 70 seats, 119.
29:37Had the Congress even done marginally better, Tejasvi would have become the Chief Minister.
29:42Is the Congress a factor in Bihar because of Rahul Gandhi getting a relatively enthusiastic response?
29:48Yashwan Deshmukh, does your tracker poll show any traction for the Congress
29:53or do they remain the Kamzor Kadi of this Mahagadband?
29:56I would call it Kamzor Kadi in that way because whenever Rahul Gandhi has hit the road,
30:02it has benefited. I mean, anybody who does some groundwork, it will help in politics.
30:06So, Bharat Joda Yatra did help Congress big time, no doubt about that. However, as an issue,
30:12this SIR or the vote chori thing, we still haven't really found a traction as such which is among the
30:20swing vote. What I am simply trying to say, the support for the vote chori campaign is coming
30:26from the basically already converted voter. You know, you don't convert the converted,
30:31already converted. You need a middle of the ground swing voter to switch over to you.
30:35So, what is happening in Bihar, it's like in Hindi we say,
30:39Kauha Kaan Le Gaya. You know,
30:40Rajdeep Tumhara Kaan Kauha Le Gaya. Now Rajdeep will say Kauha, Kauha, Kauha.
30:44And Rajdeep will simply, you know, touch the Kaan ki Kaan Hai Kaha.
30:48So, people, if they will find that their vote name is very much on the voter list,
30:54it will not become an issue.
30:55Okay, we have exactly two minutes on the show, and we now come to predictions.
31:00Remember, we are going to hold all of these people accountable for what they say today,
31:04on the day the actual counting takes place. It's not been easy to get them to say it,
31:09but one by one I'm going to go to each of them. Amitabh Tiwari is first. He perhaps feels he has
31:15less skin in the game since he didn't predict 2024, but this is what Amitabh Tiwari has predicted
31:21for Bihar. Let's look at Amitabh Tiwari because he has been the most direct. You have predicted NDA
31:28130, 135, Mahakadbandhan 100 to 110, Jant Suraj 0 to 5, others to 0 to 5. So, you are predicting
31:35that Nitish Kumar or the NDA will form the next government in Bihar.
31:41If elections are held today, correct. If elections are held today, that is what will
31:45What is going to change between now and then? A lot of things change. One and a half months,
31:49candidates, it's all about candidates. Tomorrow, if there is poor candidate selection by the NDA or
31:54the Mahagadbandhan, both will suffer. Okay. So, as of today, it's a close contest, but NDA has a slight edge
32:00because Mahagadbandhan is not being able to move beyond the MY vote. It is not able to make a dent in
32:07NDA vote share. Okay. Yashwan Deshmukh was the next that we asked. Yashwan Deshmukh has done what
32:14most Indians do. So, he has given us two scenarios. Scenario one, you are saying NDA 125 with 43%
32:24vote share, RJD 110. Very similar in a way to last time. But scenario two is you are giving NDA 175,
32:32almost a sweep like in Maharashtra, with a slight 3% up to 46%. Explain very quickly.
32:40Keep an eye on the voter turnout as far as the female voters are concerned. If the female voters
32:45turnout is at par with the male turnout, scenario one is likely to pay. If the female turnout goes down,
32:52then that is the one scenario where RJD plus can get a majority. But if the female turnout is even 3%
33:00more than the male turnout and this is what you are going to end up. Okay, the cleverest guy has been
33:05Pradeep Gupta because he's decided to not take any risks. So, take a look at Pradeep Gupta's predictions.
33:14He wants to make everyone look happy. His first possible scenario is an NDA majority. His second
33:21possible scenario is a RJD majority. His third possible scenario is a Jant Suraj Party majority.
33:28Now, you please decide once and for all. Possible scenario one, most likely. Possible scenario two,
33:35less likely. Third scenario least likely. Am I right? One, two, three. No, you are not right, Rajdeep.
33:43This is not... No, so what is it? So, I am coming to that. You are supposed to be from Mumbai.
33:52First of all, I am in no position to predict whatsoever at this point of time. As I mentioned earlier,
34:00even Bihar voters, the floating voters, doesn't know whom to vote. They are still waiting and watching
34:07what is coming on to their way and they will take the decision at the last minute. But there are all
34:13three possibility which is there. NDA can win, RJD plus can win and Prashant Kishore's case,
34:22in case, which is very, you know, least possibility in that sense. If an en masse vote of minority vote
34:31shift and they believe that Prashant Kishore has some kind of attraction and he can beat the NDA or
34:37the BJP, then scenario will be totally different. No, but Rajdeep, I want to know from you,
34:43Pradeep Gupta, what is the percentage of floaters? Because you are emphasizing on floaters. Isn't Bihar
34:48one of those states where there are least number of those silent or floaters?
34:53In case of Bihar, it is far easier. It is like this. About 30 percent odd for the NDA,
35:00about 30 percent odd for the Gadbandhan and rest is the floater voter in case of Bihar. Because of
35:07small parties, I will tell you, not a single election in last five terms, I would say five terms,
35:14where apart from these Gadbandhan, even last time, the others, including LJP, secured 26 percent vote.
35:21What does it mean? They are not loyal to any of these major parties. Okay. So basically,
35:26Pradeep Gupta is saying tomorrow in Mumbai, it could rain, it could be very sunny or it could be
35:31cloudy. You choose your pick. I want to also say, we use the word chamar during that graphic. I apologize
35:39for that. It's a word that we shouldn't be using. And therefore, my apologies for having used that
35:45word in the context of the graphic that we put out. But I'm going to give someone who's a daughter
35:51of the soil of Bihar the final word. Maria, you've just been to Bihar. You've interviewed Tejasvi on the
35:57road. Give me your number. You don't have to give me a number. You tell me which way the wind is blowing.
36:04Look, Rajdeep, last time, I'll be making the comparison between all the elections that I've
36:08seen. 2015 was a clear landslide election. 2020 became a close contest because Tejasvi hit the
36:16ground. This time he has hit the ground way in advance. But be prepared right now, only after the
36:23model code of conduct is announced, we'll see the clear picture. But this direct benefit transfer is
36:30something that is drawing the women of Bihar. So if Tejasvi Yadav has the Muslim Yadav,
36:36the NDA has the Mahila and youth because both these constituencies, both these crucial demographics
36:42are getting benefits of the state through direct benefit transfer.
36:46Okay, so Maria is also playing a little safe.
36:49What is your term, Rajdeep?
36:50Rajdeep can give the number.
36:52After, I am still wiping the egg off my face from 2024 general elections.
36:57So…
36:58What Rajdeep has done behind, backstage, he's all told us a number, which he's not going to tell us here.
37:04He's just going to play it safe.
37:04No, no, no, I will say…
37:05Rajdeep, own up the numbers, please.
37:06No, no, I will say this.
37:07He's own up the numbers.
37:08I'm in this state where I got the election right. I predicted that the NDA would win Maharashtra.
37:15So I'm going to stick to that. Always stick to your last prediction that you get right.
37:21I will let you know quietly what will happen in Bihar and then say I got it right after the election results.
37:26I am not as brave as sophologists are. I don't know why they are so brave,
37:31maybe because they get paid by political parties, but we will discuss that on another day.
37:35For now, Maria, Amitabh Tiwari, Yashwan Deshmukh and Pradeep Gupta, thank you very much.
37:45We will leave the voters of Bihar to decide, Kawn Jite Ka Bihar.
37:50Thank you very much.
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