Week Five NCAAF Best Bets & Updated Heisman Trophy Odds

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00:00And who would have thought our first spread line would be Florida State

00:02coming into the season after a horrible season in 2024?

00:05Why would they ever make a spread line?

00:07Joe, they are 3-0 here and looking to do damage in the ACC.

00:12Right.

00:13And, Donnie, the problem is we haven't seen Florida State face anybody

00:17since the win over Alabama, which was just about a month ago now.

00:21And believe me, Kent State does not count as a test for anybody here.

00:26Problem is, Donnie, we've seen nothing but Virginia money this week.

00:29Coming in here.

00:31And now it was as high as 8 during the week, minus 7.5, now minus 7s.

00:37And keep in mind here, this has not been a very good FSU team

00:42against the number on the road or a neutral site game since 2019.

00:4711-21 against the number, Donnie.

00:50And you've got a Virginia offense with quarterback Chandler Morris under center

00:55averaging 45.5 points a game.

00:57The thing for me is, I know Florida State money is coming before kickoff.

01:02And I'm thinking all of this early money towards Virginia pushing the line down,

01:07I think it could be a head fake, Donnie, because I think the hope is this drops below 7,

01:13gets to 6.5, because guess who's on deck for FSU, Donnie?

01:17Oh, yes.

01:18Coming back to the U, Miami.

01:20It's a look-ahead spot.

01:21I think once this thing drops below 7, you're going to see a ton of money coming in on Florida State,

01:27and I'll be one of them.

01:29Yeah, big time for Miami to get that by, to sort of belly up and say,

01:32let's watch some tape, let's relax, let's get healthy,

01:34where Florida State has to play on a Friday night, so at a distinct disadvantage there.

01:38It's a great headline for us to talk about.

01:39Also, keeping it in the ACC, with Clemson basically falling off at 0-2 to start the season, Joe,

01:46the ACC teams that maybe didn't think they would be in it to win it here,

01:49the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, Miami Hurricanes, obviously the Florida State Seminoles,

01:52they knew they would probably be at the top of the standings.

01:54But how about this one?

01:56Saturday at noon in the ACC, Duke versus Syracuse.

01:59Syracuse had a great close of the season last year,

02:01now opens up 3-1 overall and 1-0 in the ACC.

02:04They got a legitimate chance to win this thing.

02:06That team seems for real, Joe.

02:07Yeah, and listen, I mean, recency bias, Donnie.

02:11We just watched them dismantle Clemson on the road,

02:15and I can tell you right now, based upon tickets and money,

02:18the public loves this Syracuse Orange team.

02:21This line opened up with Cuse being a five-point underdog,

02:25and we have seen close to 75% of the money in tickets on Syracuse.

02:30The problem is, I'm not sure if the public understands

02:33that Syracuse lost its starting quarterback, Steve Aghelli,

02:36in that game against Clemson with an Achilles injury for the rest of the season.

02:41He's a big reason why they've had success, Donnie.

02:44Over 1,300 yards passing, 10 TDs.

02:47I mean, I get it.

02:49The public sees Duke as a team that has been all over the map,

02:53but that was a hell of a win against NC State,

02:55and the public should realize this is a Duke team

02:58that can drop 40 points on anybody.

03:01My advice, though, bet Duke now if you like them,

03:06because I do think this number, yeah,

03:08it's going to keep rising here before kickoff.

03:11Spread lines here, digging deep.

03:13Most of all, why aren't you talking about Oregon taking on Penn State?

03:16Well, understand this.

03:17There are storylines to every single ballgame

03:19and chances to make money, Joe.

03:20Talk to me.

03:21Northwestern, UCLA?

03:23How about that line?

03:25I mean, Donnie, hell has frozen over

03:27because Northwestern is an actual favorite in a game.

03:30Wow.

03:31What?

03:32Which is hard to believe,

03:33since the last time they were a big favorite

03:34against a Power 5 team

03:36was back in the COVID year in 2020 against Illinois.

03:40They did cover as a 13-and-a-half-point favorite,

03:43but that might as well have been a million years ago.

03:46This team is awful.

03:47Now you've got UCLA who fires Deshaun Foster

03:50because they look terrible.

03:53But what I'm hearing, Donnie,

03:54is Tim Skipper, the interim head coach.

03:56He's breathed some life back into these players

03:58and this program here,

04:00especially with their million-dollar quarterback,

04:03good old Nico there, that they got from Tennessee.

04:06Listen, Northwestern's been cooked for years.

04:08The fact that they are laying this kind of money,

04:12I would grab these points as quick as you can with UCLA

04:15because I'm telling you the pro money's coming

04:17and this number will be gone by kickoff.

04:20Absolutely fantastic college football slate

04:23setting up for this Saturday.

04:24I can't wait to watch it play out.

04:26But before we get there, Joe,

04:27let's do a quick rehash here.

04:28On the Heisman Trophy race,

04:30and if you're not paying attention

04:32or don't know college football,

04:33if I would have told you a guy, Joe,

04:35Fernando Mendoza leads the way in the Heisman Trophy,

04:39most people wouldn't even know where he played football at.

04:42That's the University of Indiana, Joe,

04:43and he's the favorite at a plus 850 price

04:45over Carson Beck of Miami, dropping down to 11-1.

04:50Coach Sig has got the boy rolling in Indiana.

04:53No, he does.

04:55And listen, I think this board, Donnie,

04:56is going to continue to zig and zag each and every week.

05:01I mean, don't forget, we had the OU quarterback,

05:05you know, was the favorite just a week ago

05:08until we learned that, oh, yeah, he's having surgery

05:11and he's going to miss some time, so he's off the board.

05:15A lot of big games coming up in which those numbers right now

05:18will be shifting.

05:20Keep an eye on Jordan Maiva there, USC with Lincoln Riley,

05:24the number one quarterback in the country right now,

05:27and he's got Illinois who just gave up 63 to that quarterback,

05:33by the way, of Indiana Mendoza.

05:35So, yeah, there's some value on that board, Donnie.

05:39I'll tell you, value this weekend just might be in you

05:41sitting down on your couch and watching great football games,

05:44which includes the SEC game of the week,

05:467.30 p.m. on Saturday night, Joe.

05:47That's Alabama and Georgia.

05:49By the way, in that Heisman race,

05:51Gunnar Stockton pulls out a win over Alabama.

05:53He will move up that leaderboard as well,

05:55but however, it's kind of opened up around a 4.5-point price

05:57as a favorite towards Georgia.

05:59Joe, some outlets showing 2.5, others at 3 here.

06:01We're expecting a great game at Sanford Stadium this weekend here.

06:05Two big-time rivals going toe-to-toe.

06:07Yeah, but, you know, Nick Saban's not walking through that door

06:11anytime soon, Alabama.

06:13And, yeah, I think this is hostile territory.

06:16I think this is going to be rough here.

06:20And, Kalen DeBoer, you can – that loss to Florida State,

06:25I can tell you right now, will be wiped away

06:28if you end up getting this job done here against Kirby Smart in Georgia.

06:33I think it's a field goal game one way or the other.

06:36Me too.

06:36I would not be laying it down one way or the other with this game.

06:40It's right – you are so right.

06:41It's right down the middle of this.

06:42And also, Jan Miller back for the Alabama Crimson Tide,

06:45their superstar running back.

06:46That could make a big difference in this game.

06:48How about the wideout at Penn State?

06:50Oregon versus Penn State.

06:52Now, usually, Joe, we talk, hey, these big games, touchdown favorites.

06:54No, we just told you a game is between 2.5 and 3.

06:57Now, we look at Oregon and Penn State, 3.5s across the board

07:00with a lonely 3 out there.

07:02So, we're expecting a great football game.

07:04Totalists won 51.5.

07:06That Penn State crowd is going to be on fire.

07:08But can it do enough to slow down that high-powered Oregon Ducks attack, Joe?

07:13Well, I got to tell you, Donnie, this game opened up 6-6.5 for Penn State.

07:18And there hadn't been an ounce of Penn State money yet

07:21driving this thing down 2-3.5.

07:24And listen, to me, one team has been tested, one team has delivered,

07:31and one team has decided to play three cupcakes and struggled in those games.

07:36I don't care that it's a wideout.

07:38I don't care how many returning starters.

07:40You know who has a lot of returning starters?

07:42Illinois.

07:43How did that work out against Indiana last week here?

07:46I think Oregon gets it done, and I think they get it done in a big way here against Penn State.

07:52And you know what, like, I'll stick on this game for just a moment because you're right about this.

07:56Like, Penn State is notorious for having very good schedules.

07:59Like, okay, we're going to play, like, Ohio State once a year.

08:01They're going to beat us, but we'll rack up wins against everybody else and run up the score.

08:04But now you get that whole James Franklin where when you play a really good opponent,

08:09he comes up small a lot.

08:11And what happens, like, I always joke, like, if Penn State loses this game

08:14and then rips off another 10-win season, they go to the Citrus Bowl.

08:17Like, James Franklin gets another seven-year contract at Penn State sooner than later, Joe.

08:21You have to step up.

08:23Like, if Oregon comes as an underdog into your building and beats you,

08:26are we just going to rely on, well, the loss doesn't matter

08:29because you can still make it in with two losses in the college football playoff.

08:31Enough is enough at Penn State.

08:33Win a big football game, Joe.

08:35Yeah, well, and that's the whole thing, right?

08:37Drew Allar, okay.

08:39I mean, he hasn't looked great against cupcakes here.

08:42So, we're just expecting him to flip a switch now and do it against one of the best

08:47and most athletic and deepest teams in the country in Oregon?

08:51I don't know.

08:51The only second race for Penn State is Jim Knowles as your D.C.

08:55He was the D.C. for Ohio State last year and got into a championship.

08:59That defense is going to have to play big in this game.

09:03Oh, boy.

09:04Ohio State and Washington out on the West Coast.

09:07An eight-and-a-half point favorite for those Buckeyes.

09:09And, by the way, money coming in on Washington.

09:13Husky Stadium will be absolutely rocking on Saturday, Joe.

09:18But, again, who has Washington played?

09:21I mean, another cupcake schedule here against Ohio State,

09:25who had to open up against a pretty good team.

09:28Yeah, it's been all Washington money.

09:32I'd be careful with this one.

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