- 11 minutes ago
Amanda isn't likely to do much before it dissipates, but where might the second tropical storm of 2026 form?
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00:00In the forecast feed, we're going to keep an eye on the tropics. We're actually going to begin in the
00:03East Pacific right now because the official first named storm for the Western Hemisphere occurring in the East Pacific is
00:12on the map. Here we are with tropical storm Amanda. Amanda has formed as of late morning on Wednesday and
00:20Amanda is a storm that we're going to keep an eye on. But you'll notice there won't be much of
00:25a future to it. No land impacts.
00:28If we look at the wind shear map in the East and Central Pacific with the location of Amanda represented
00:35here, we're going to be watching this storm move a little farther west and then perhaps a little south. You'll
00:40notice there's a lot of wind shear in advance of this storm. The purple, that's the high end of the
00:44scale for strong wind shear. So again, pretty disruptive flow from the south in the path of this storm. So
00:51that will keep it limited.
00:53We're also keeping an eye out into this general zone near the southeast corner of Mexico and near the Pacific
00:59side of Central America where there's less wind shear here. And this is another zone of low pressure that we
01:06need to keep an eye on as well. Before we get into more details, let's take a look at how
01:11the models play things out.
01:12You can clearly see Amanda. And again, here is Amanda in its current form. And by the way, just for
01:21perspective, here's Hawaii. And here we have, again, Central America and Mexico, U.S. Here's California.
01:28Overall, we're going to watch Amanda move a little farther west. But once it runs into that shear, it really
01:33begins to give up and it loses its identity. By Sunday and Monday, it's basically gone with just a fragment
01:40of its former self and leftover moisture we pushed farther south.
01:44So again, the wind shear in advance of this, you can see Amanda out there. I'll plot this as a
01:50low pressure system here. There it is. That's Amanda.
01:53And as it moves farther west into a zone of more shear, the bright colors here where you have disruptive
01:59winds, it never is able to really push through just a wall of strong wind shear off to the northwest.
02:07And it favors this jog a little farther south. But then it just gets shunted south here by, again, a
02:13Pacific flow from the north-northwest that drives it farther south.
02:17So when it comes to the warmth in the Pacific, this is an El Nino year. We're really seeing this
02:24El Nino ramp up. And current water temperatures are above average.
02:29The ENSO region, generally along the equator here, portions of the box, but really we can broaden that out. But
02:36region 3.4 is in this box here.
02:38That's where we're most, that's where we take a lot of the statistics in terms of the status of the
02:44water temperature and if that is an El Nino or a La Nina.
02:48Certainly an El Nino. By the way, the location here in the Pacific where Amanda is, is up in this
02:53general latitude belt, where the water is certainly warmer than average there as well.
02:57It's also a little warmer than average down where we have another potential zone of development.
03:02So as we look at the wider view on satellite, we can keep an eye not just on Amanda, but
03:08also this increasing plume of moisture that's drifting a little farther west in through this area.
03:14This corridor, kind of a congealing zone of extra moisture.
03:18And that's going to be a zone where we look for some potential development beyond Amanda, beyond Amanda that's already
03:24on the map out here.
03:24We also have this zone here just south of Mexico and near the landmass of Central America, where we have
03:31the potential and likelihood of more development between June 6th and 10th.
03:34So here we have Amanda already checked off the list.
03:37Next up will be Boris, and Boris is likely to form south of the far corner of southeastern Mexico.
03:45Let's take a look at the Atlantic.
03:47And we can watch also parts of the tropical Pacific.
03:50This is Sunday and Monday, and here's around the time we begin to see this new developing low-pressure system
03:57that could become Boris enter the picture.
04:01And again, Boris, I know it's kind of hidden by the banner, but this is what I'm plotting down there.
04:05That's the area of concern.
04:07We're also watching a large gyre of lower pressure.
04:11And you can see it even begins to at least hint at some circulation over parts of the tropical Caribbean,
04:21in the western Caribbean.
04:22So two zones of low pressure here.
04:24And some of the moisture from what might become future Boris could also perhaps cross parts of Mexico.
04:31The GFS takes it west.
04:33There have been times when some of that moisture spins and actually moves a little farther north, perhaps into the
04:39Caribbean.
04:40But even behind future Boris, you can see more moisture congealing near Honduras.
04:46And on the Atlantic side, you can see a couple of things going on here.
04:52A strong cold front that will have ended the hot spell in the Atlantic, the mid-Atlantic coast here.
05:00A strong cold front tied to that.
05:01A dip of the jet stream.
05:03We also are going to be watching an area of moisture plume north near the west side of Cuba.
05:10So during that time frame, the GFS does actually spin something up here.
05:16As that continues to move north, this would be next Friday, Friday, June 12th.
05:20And here we're looking at a zone of circulation here off the coast of Florida.
05:25Something we need to keep an eye on into the following weekend somewhere near the Florida coast.
05:30Not a strong surface low pressure system, but an area of low pressure regardless.
05:35Here's the European.
05:36What's the European do?
05:37It spins up future Boris.
05:41It is out there somewhere, again, lurking near the south side of Mexico.
05:47There's also a second system that this helps to spin up near Costa Rica, down this way.
05:53And then the European drifts that moisture across parts of Central America and helps to
05:59feed a little bit of extra moisture into the north side of Honduras.
06:02But regarding the plume that, again, here we have the GFS producing this activity off the
06:08west side of Cuba.
06:09The European's not singing a similar tune.
06:12It really doesn't bring us a strong system into eastern parts of the Gulf.
06:17But as we look at the GFS depiction, which would be the slightly more impressive situation
06:21for the Florida coast, there would be some extra moisture there.
06:24So here's a graphic that kind of summarizes some of this.
06:28And we're talking about the potential for some moisture to cross Central America, feeding
06:34into the Gulf.
06:35And there's an area of concern.
06:37Nothing definite.
06:38Again, a lot of disagreement between the GFS, which does spin something up near the
06:42Florida coast, and the European that argues firmly, no, an area of concern in the Gulf,
06:46June 13th to the 16th.
07:37So here's an area of concern.
08:03Thanks for being with us here on the AccuWeather Network, where you have some more footage
08:08as another home along North Carolina's Outer Banks has collapsed into the Atlantic Ocean.
08:12The damaged beachfront house collapsed in Buxton, North Carolina last night amid some of these hazardous coastal conditions.
08:21This is the fifth home to collapse in Buxton just this year and the 20th to collapse in the Outer
08:26Banks since September of 2025.
08:30Meantime, more homeowners along the Outer Banks are taking precautions to save their oceanfront properties.
08:35Crews in Buxton moved an entire home to a new location over the course of two weeks last month.
08:40The homeowner hopes the move will save the home from the same fate as neighboring properties that have succumbed to
08:47the elements.
08:51A record amount of sargassum is floating across the Atlantic and Caribbean this season, with Florida beaches among some of
08:58the hardest hit.
08:59Scientists say this year's bloom could become one of the worst on record, and AccuWeather's Leslie Hudson has more from
09:05South Florida.
09:08If you think folks here in the southeast are only talking about hurricane season, think again.
09:13There's another Atlantic phenomenon that is well underway and has made landfall along the area beaches here in Florida and
09:20all along the southeast coast.
09:22And it has major impacts on the economy, wildlife, and more.
09:27NOAA estimates roughly 39 million tons of the brown algae are currently floating across the Atlantic and Caribbean.
09:34Recent east to southeast winds have only made matters worse, pushing thick accumulations onto shorelines, inlets, and jetties.
09:41The impacts stretch far beyond the shore as well.
09:44Sargassum is now a recurring economic threat across the Caribbean, Florida, and parts of the Gulf Coast, including Louisiana and
09:51Texas.
09:52When thick mats come ashore, the cost ripples quickly.
09:56Beach cleanups, canceled hotel stays, fewer restaurant visits, fishing impacts, and tourists choosing another coastline.
10:03The seaweed definitely makes it difficult.
10:05She doesn't like to even get in when it looks gross, it looks brown.
10:10And I have a fear of sharks, that's why I'm not in the water.
10:13So unless I can clearly see it, I'm not even getting in.
10:16Researchers estimate annual losses can climb into the billions along the southeastern coastline.
10:22Now biologists say the seaweed that is piling on the shores here in the southeast is more than a visible
10:28reminder of this nuisance seaweed.
10:30It tells the story that several of these basins are interconnected, and changes that happen thousands of miles away can
10:38wind up here on our doorstep.
10:41Reporting from Miami Beach, I'm Leslie Hudson for AccuWeather.
10:47All right, good report there from Leslie.
10:49Heading to the Midwest now, storms left behind damage.
10:52Earlier this week in the Kansas City, Missouri area, video shows knockdown banners and tents outside of the hotel where
10:58the Argentine soccer team was staying ahead of its first match in the 2026 World Cup.
11:03Reports show winds reached up to 80 miles per hour that day.
11:07Nasty stuff out there.
11:09I hope to get that out of our system before cup time.
11:12Let's take a look at what's going on tonight.
11:14Now, Kansas City on the map, but you'll notice it's not one of the areas we're highlighting for severe weather.
11:19We are concerned about the Dakotas and western Minnesota, with a 2 out of 4 storm threat index here indicating
11:26a moderate risk from our forecast team here at AccuWeather.
11:30Hail, damaging winds.
11:32Also, the risk is present for isolated downpours that could lead to street flooding.
11:37Also, there's a small risk for isolated tornadoes, too.
11:39Here we are looking at the Fargo area this evening.
11:42Storms rumbling through that area with wind and hail are main risks.
11:48That will then move into more of Minnesota and southern and eastern parts of the Dakotas as well, moving through
11:54the nighttime hours.
11:55So, nasty storms there.
11:57Overnight tonight, a lot of us east of that front will be staying in the 60s for lows.
12:02A very warm night.
12:03Temperatures in the mid-60s in Minneapolis, mid-to-upper 60s for some.
12:06Storms Duluth, Minneapolis, Watertown, Sioux Falls, Fargo in the evening.
12:10Behind that, though, subtract maybe 7, 8, 9 degrees.
12:13Bismarck and Rapid City looking great with a mainly clear sky.
12:17Meanwhile, to the east, we're going to be in good shape in Chicago.
12:19Turning warmer, though, in Chicago for Thursday.
12:22Very warm there.
12:23More thunderstorms rumbling across a large part of the upper Midwest.
12:27And as we look at the more significant, broader view of future radar and clouds, you can see the showers
12:33and storms that will be developing.
12:34Here's Thursday morning.
12:36So, Thursday morning, they won't be totally dry in all these areas, but there will be a little bit of
12:40a minimum in thunderstorm activity.
12:42And then they ramp back up late on Thursday.
12:45Thursday evening, 7 p.m., look at this.
12:47Storms firing over southeast Nebraska and northeast Kansas.
12:50Some into Oklahoma, a larger, more organized clustering of thunderstorms from eastern Montana into South Dakota, western Nebraska into eastern
12:59Colorado again.
13:00And we still have some flash flood concerns into New Mexico and west Texas, at least at times.
13:04Moving forward into Friday afternoon and evening, more storms this time.
13:08Chicago's in on it.
13:09St. Louis, Kansas City is in on it then and down into areas around the southern plains.
13:13So, there's a gradual eastward shift here with this.
13:16And then Saturday, showers, some thunderstorms, especially in the interior northeast with hot weather for I-95.
13:23But Thursday afternoon and evening, remember, this is a fairly widespread area with some risk for severe storms.
13:29All of South Dakota, much of southern and southwestern Minnesota, most of central and northern and western Nebraska, and into
13:37parts of eastern Colorado.
13:38Friday, we take one step east here with those showers and thunderstorms across Iowa.
13:43Iowa's kind of center stage here with our some risk, much of Kansas, eastern Nebraska, the Kansas City metro's in
13:49on this, and then into western Wisconsin.
13:51Saturday, a big step east into more of the Great Lakes region for the thunderstorms, hot weather in the Ohio
13:57Valley, and it'll be very warm, but less humid up into the Dakotas.
14:01And then we begin to recharge here with the next disturbance moving through eastern Montana into western North Dakota on
14:06Saturday afternoon and evening.
14:08And that'll be another day when we have to keep an eye out for perhaps some more trouble.
14:13At the same time, farther south, we're going to have some thunderstorms that will be kind of popping and festering
14:18across some sections of the southern plains.
14:22Some of these could lead to some flash flooding, by the way.
14:24And as we look at the risk here, we're dealing with beyond the storms to the north, showers and thunderstorms
14:29on Saturday.
14:30And some of this will lead to flash flooding into Thursday, Friday and Saturday in parts of Texas and Oklahoma.
14:36For expert insights and superior accuracy, don't forget to download the free AccuWeather app and follow AccuWeather.com and all
14:42of our social media channels.
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