Carolinas at potential risk if Erin continues to track farther west

AccuWeather

Erin is forecast to become the Atlantic's first hurricane of 2025. The Carolinas may be at risk if the storm veers west next week. Learn which parts of the East Coast could be affected.

Transcript

00:00John, Aaron really started to ramp up about 24 hours ago, and at 5 o'clock last night,

00:06maximum staying winds at 70 miles per hour, but then dry air came in,

00:11and that kind of stopped the development. It couldn't deny it, but it just delayed it.

00:17Yeah, it just delayed it a bit, that's right, and really I think overnight,

00:21part of that time period was used by the storm to sort of restructure itself.

00:24Now it looks like it has a better inner core, the satellite presentation is improving,

00:30notice the movement though now, Bernie, last couple of days it's been west at about 20 miles an hour,

00:36west-northwest now, so a little bit more of that northwesterly component involved.

00:41Now, John, I want to go back to this graphic because I think it's important,

00:44we continue to look at this every single day, that it's important to note as that northwest track continues

00:52that Aaron's going to go over favorable conditions for development, low wind shear,

00:56which is what this graphic is showing us, very warm water, and less dry air,

01:03so there's no question this will be a major hurricane.

01:06Yes, major hurricane on the way, and that's why we have a high degree of confidence about that.

01:10All right, now, let's go back to this graphic, John, because it's a starting point for us,

01:14because we want to talk about probability.

01:16So this was the track this morning, right, and all of the tracks near Aaron within 60 miles in August and September,

01:25and this is what's helping us, or at least the starting point, to determine who's clear and who's not.

01:33History says no one's clear along the east coast, and, John, if you track the storms just in the Atlantic,

01:39because that's where we think it's going, 59 storms, 8 have had direct impacts, so that's roughly about 15%.

01:46That's correct, and some of those, in each of these lines, by the way, is a storm, a previous storm in August or September.

01:52It's the historical record for storms that were near Aaron's current location.

01:56Notice a few of them do get back to Florida and the Carolinas.

01:59That's why we continue to have the entire east coast on alert for this storm.

02:03Can't all clear anyone yet.

02:04One of the rules meteorologists have come up with over the years, it's called the Herbe box here.

02:12It's the 2060 line.

02:14You've heard me notice, talk about this before.

02:17What this says is any storm that goes off to the south of that point, it's very unlikely,

02:27if it goes north of that point, excuse me, north of 2060,

02:31it's very unlikely that you would get a landfall in south Florida.

02:36That's right, and this is one of these tricks,

02:39long-time tools developed by a former National Hurricane Center meteorologist decades ago

02:44before computer models and technology that we have, guidance that we have,

02:48was as sophisticated as it is today.

02:50But it's still a good thing to keep in mind that when storms go north of that 2060 waypoint,

02:55that's when we become a lot less concerned about Florida.

02:59But near or south of it, that's why the concern remains.

03:03So once it traverses that point, we're going to have a lot more confidence about that turn to the north.

03:08All right.

03:09The fork in the road, John, there's always a fork in the road.

03:11You've heard me say this all the time.

03:14Fork in the road continues to be that Sunday and Monday time frame.

03:17It all depends on how quickly Aaron does or does not turn to the north.

03:23That degree to the turn to the north, the timing of it's going to be very critical Sunday afternoon

03:27because if it turns to the north fairly rapidly and decisively,

03:31that's going to greatly reduce risks in Florida, South Carolina, Georgia,

03:35but we'll still be having to watch for risks in North Carolina.

03:39If it stays that southern track, that means the total opposite, that the threats do increase.

03:44And when you look at the now Wednesday, this is the other thing, John.

03:48This is why we're reasonably confident that no matter you get the northern track or the southern track,

03:54come Wednesday, that dip in the jet stream should still steer Aaron away from the east coast.

04:01Right.

04:01We think that the jet stream winds there are going to act as a as a kicker

04:05and kick the storm off to the east, reducing the risk for direct wind and impacts,

04:10wind and rain impacts along the U.S. east coast.

04:13All right.

04:14And you'll notice what you see that time frame Sunday, Monday.

04:18You see how the path diverges as far east as Bermuda and as far west as the Bahamas

04:27and all the way near the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

04:30That's right.

04:30That's why we've still got the western edge of that AccuWeather window of movement

04:34indicating the storm could be as far west as near the North Carolina coast

04:38in the middle of the week next week around Wednesday.

04:41And that's why we're still monitoring that and concerned about the angle by which it does that recurve back out to sea.

04:48You take a look at history.

04:49You take a look at the meteorology and our sense of this.

04:54That's why we still have a 30 percent chance of direct impacts or a 70 percent chance of no direct impacts.

05:01History is actually higher, about 85 percent, that there would be no wind and rain along the east coast.

05:08That's right.

05:09And that is why we're reasonably confident here that there would be a limited risk along the east coast.

05:16But the places to watch, especially the Outer Banks, the North Carolina coastline,

05:21that's where that 30 percent on the lower end of that medium risk is maximized in terms of the risk with this storm.

05:27All right.

05:28Thanks for joining me.

05:30AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter, thanks for breaking it down.

05:34It is going to be a busy, busy weekend and busy next week.

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