00:00John, Aaron really started to ramp up about 24 hours ago, and at 5 o'clock last night,
00:06maximum staying winds at 70 miles per hour, but then dry air came in,
00:11and that kind of stopped the development. It couldn't deny it, but it just delayed it.
00:17Yeah, it just delayed it a bit, that's right, and really I think overnight,
00:21part of that time period was used by the storm to sort of restructure itself.
00:24Now it looks like it has a better inner core, the satellite presentation is improving,
00:30notice the movement though now, Bernie, last couple of days it's been west at about 20 miles an hour,
00:36west-northwest now, so a little bit more of that northwesterly component involved.
00:41Now, John, I want to go back to this graphic because I think it's important,
00:44we continue to look at this every single day, that it's important to note as that northwest track continues
00:52that Aaron's going to go over favorable conditions for development, low wind shear,
00:56which is what this graphic is showing us, very warm water, and less dry air,
01:03so there's no question this will be a major hurricane.
01:06Yes, major hurricane on the way, and that's why we have a high degree of confidence about that.
01:10All right, now, let's go back to this graphic, John, because it's a starting point for us,
01:14because we want to talk about probability.
01:16So this was the track this morning, right, and all of the tracks near Aaron within 60 miles in August and September,
01:25and this is what's helping us, or at least the starting point, to determine who's clear and who's not.
01:33History says no one's clear along the east coast, and, John, if you track the storms just in the Atlantic,
01:39because that's where we think it's going, 59 storms, 8 have had direct impacts, so that's roughly about 15%.
01:46That's correct, and some of those, in each of these lines, by the way, is a storm, a previous storm in August or September.
01:52It's the historical record for storms that were near Aaron's current location.
01:56Notice a few of them do get back to Florida and the Carolinas.
01:59That's why we continue to have the entire east coast on alert for this storm.
02:03Can't all clear anyone yet.
02:04One of the rules meteorologists have come up with over the years, it's called the Herbe box here.
02:12It's the 2060 line.
02:14You've heard me notice, talk about this before.
02:17What this says is any storm that goes off to the south of that point, it's very unlikely,
02:27if it goes north of that point, excuse me, north of 2060,
02:31it's very unlikely that you would get a landfall in south Florida.
02:36That's right, and this is one of these tricks,
02:39long-time tools developed by a former National Hurricane Center meteorologist decades ago
02:44before computer models and technology that we have, guidance that we have,
02:48was as sophisticated as it is today.
02:50But it's still a good thing to keep in mind that when storms go north of that 2060 waypoint,
02:55that's when we become a lot less concerned about Florida.
02:59But near or south of it, that's why the concern remains.
03:03So once it traverses that point, we're going to have a lot more confidence about that turn to the north.
03:08All right.
03:09The fork in the road, John, there's always a fork in the road.
03:11You've heard me say this all the time.
03:14Fork in the road continues to be that Sunday and Monday time frame.
03:17It all depends on how quickly Aaron does or does not turn to the north.
03:23That degree to the turn to the north, the timing of it's going to be very critical Sunday afternoon
03:27because if it turns to the north fairly rapidly and decisively,
03:31that's going to greatly reduce risks in Florida, South Carolina, Georgia,
03:35but we'll still be having to watch for risks in North Carolina.
03:39If it stays that southern track, that means the total opposite, that the threats do increase.
03:44And when you look at the now Wednesday, this is the other thing, John.
03:48This is why we're reasonably confident that no matter you get the northern track or the southern track,
03:54come Wednesday, that dip in the jet stream should still steer Aaron away from the east coast.
04:01Right.
04:01We think that the jet stream winds there are going to act as a as a kicker
04:05and kick the storm off to the east, reducing the risk for direct wind and impacts,
04:10wind and rain impacts along the U.S. east coast.
04:13All right.
04:14And you'll notice what you see that time frame Sunday, Monday.
04:18You see how the path diverges as far east as Bermuda and as far west as the Bahamas
04:27and all the way near the Outer Banks of North Carolina.
04:30That's right.
04:30That's why we've still got the western edge of that AccuWeather window of movement
04:34indicating the storm could be as far west as near the North Carolina coast
04:38in the middle of the week next week around Wednesday.
04:41And that's why we're still monitoring that and concerned about the angle by which it does that recurve back out to sea.
04:48You take a look at history.
04:49You take a look at the meteorology and our sense of this.
04:54That's why we still have a 30 percent chance of direct impacts or a 70 percent chance of no direct impacts.
05:01History is actually higher, about 85 percent, that there would be no wind and rain along the east coast.
05:08That's right.
05:09And that is why we're reasonably confident here that there would be a limited risk along the east coast.
05:16But the places to watch, especially the Outer Banks, the North Carolina coastline,
05:21that's where that 30 percent on the lower end of that medium risk is maximized in terms of the risk with this storm.
05:27All right.
05:28Thanks for joining me.
05:30AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jonathan Porter, thanks for breaking it down.
05:34It is going to be a busy, busy weekend and busy next week.
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