The security of Europe is being decided in Ukraine, former ambassador says

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00:00Let's bring in Oleg Shamshur, who's Ukraine's former ambassador to France.

00:04Mr Shamshur, thank you very much for joining us here in France 24.

00:06We appreciate your time.

00:08I'm wondering what your thoughts are ahead of this meeting between Trump and Putin.

00:12Clearly, Vladimir Zelenskyy needs to take part.

00:17First of all, thank you for your invitation.

00:20Definitely looks like the principle of nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine

00:27has been accepted by all our partners and allies.

00:31Now it's, again, in question.

00:36And unfortunately, President Zelenskyy definitely is not a part of the process of preparation for these talks.

00:50And it definitely is not part of the talks.

00:53But I think that even more important that Donald Trump comes into this negotiation with Putin

01:07if he really wants to speak about peace in Ukraine, acceptable for Ukraine,

01:17not contradicting its national interest.

01:21He should coordinate the position with the European allies and with Ukraine and apply pressure on Putin.

01:31If it is not happening, there is really a very big danger of some kind of the plan.

01:38And unfortunately, the peace plan presented for some time elements of it by Trump himself,

01:46but mostly by members of his foreign policy team doesn't differ too much from the demands of Putin.

01:56And it creates even more danger for Ukraine and more disturbing climate leading up to this meeting.

02:09Vladimir Putin so far has made basically no concessions, as you pointed out.

02:14And as we're going into this important meeting, it looks very much like things may be decided in Russia's favor,

02:21unless the pressure from European leaders comes to bear on Trump.

02:26And Vladimir Zelenskyy is allowed to attend in some way, shape or form to state Ukraine's case

02:31and to be a voice in the conversation.

02:33Zelenskyy today saying that no land will be given up.

02:36There's no question of that happening.

02:39Is that realistic, do you think?

02:40Is that a realistic position?

02:41Will Ukraine have to accept that some land will be conceded, given away as part of any agreement?

02:47First of all, I would like to say that you mentioned that Zelenskyy should be invited to some stage.

02:57No, it's actually to serve no absolute no purpose if the device can cut some kind of a plan

03:05and then present as a fait accompli to Zelenskyy and European partners.

03:11Zelenskyy and the Europeans should be part of the decision-making process, as I said before.

03:18No matter what is being said, it should be understood that any concession to Putin

03:25and allowing him to conserve his territorial land grabs since 2014,

03:35but especially, I would say, during this war would mean that we would be speaking

03:40only a possible termination of the stage of the war,

03:46and that will be the prelude to becoming the war and all European institutions.

03:53So it means that in the reality of the war in two, five years,

04:01of which spoke, for example, General Burkhardt of France,

04:06is, well, it looks very realistic.

04:09And the Europeans, and not only Europeans should understand that the security of Europe

04:15is being decided now in Ukraine.

04:16That's why now we need, I would say, the surso of which Macron spoke some time ago,

04:25in order to exert pressure on Putin and to create a necessary and, I would say,

04:35favorable negotiating positions for Ukraine and its European partners.

04:40Are you surprised that Donald Trump, having observed that Vladimir Putin doesn't do what he says he will do,

04:47he'll say one thing to Trump, then he'll go and bomb Ukraine,

04:50he'll say he wants peace and then he'll go and bomb Ukraine.

04:52Are you surprised that Donald Trump is still being very conciliatory towards Putin,

04:59that the United States is still basically almost giving him everything he wants?

05:02I'm not surprised at all.

05:07And I was voicing this concern from the very beginning.

05:11To understand the position and the behavior of Trump,

05:17there are some things that should be taken into account.

05:21Firstly, he would like to finish this war so he would be able to concentrate on others,

05:28as he thinks, more important issues.

05:30And he is ready to do it no matter what, including violating the interests of Ukraine,

05:38which he thinks are really not that important or totally non-important for the United States.

05:46Secondly, he would like to see the termination of the war in Ukraine as a part of a broader picture.

05:56And he said about it himself, a picture of reforming, improving the relations with Russia,

06:04realizing with Russia some super economic projects,

06:10and also using Russia to revamp the rules of the international politics in general,

06:18and also to drag Russia off the sphere of the Chinese influence.

06:26All those goals, I think, are total illusions, but those are illusions dear to Trump's heart.

06:35There are those things which, to my mind, should be taken into account in order to understand the behavior of Donald Trump.

06:47And he is clinging to the possibility, opportunity, to speak to Putin as a party,

06:56not as a adversary, not speaking about the foe.

07:01That's why all his threats to exert, to apply some, well, I would say super sanctions against Russia

07:12and the secondary sanctions, they have remained, the traces, some, the bubbles.

07:19While he was, he jumped on the opportunity presented by Putin as soon as he aired this idea for the bilateral meeting

07:29and maybe discussing some issues which, in Trump's mind, would lead to termination of the war in Ukraine.

07:40Those are illusions, but again, these are illusions, and they correspond to the intentions and beliefs of Donald Trump, unfortunately.

07:54Oleg Shamshur, former ambassador to France for Ukraine.

07:57Thank you, sir, for joining us.

07:59Thank you for sharing your interpretation of how things might go.

08:02Pleasure speaking to you, sir, and let's hope there is an outcome that is more favorable

08:06than the one that you are outlining there for your country.

08:08That's Oleg Shamshur, Ukraine's former ambassador to France.

08:11We, of course, are watching all developments, both diplomatically and on the ground in Ukraine.

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