As of Nov. 4, a new tropical storm is spinning through the Caribbean, with its long-term sights set on the U.S.
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00:00We are now tracking our next storm.
00:02Tropical Storm Rafael.
00:03It is sitting in the southwest
00:05Caribbean right now at 45 miles per hour.
00:08It's sustained these winds here
00:09over the past hour or so.
00:12Movement here now at the north
00:13northwest at 9 miles per hour,
00:15and that's what we're typically
00:17going to see here over the next few days.
00:20A north and a West journey,
00:22but further strengthening is anticipated
00:24as this storm continues to move
00:26through a zone that is going to
00:28help it along when it comes to.
00:31Gathering its strength.
00:32We have the low wind shear.
00:33We have plenty of moisture.
00:35It's feeding in to the Caribbean now.
00:37We've been fighting a lot of this dry air,
00:40but you can see that moisture is
00:42really making a run for it and
00:44really punching that dry air away.
00:46So this storm gathering its strength here,
00:48and that's an area where again
00:50it doesn't have a lot to fight.
00:52Now there is some pockets of
00:54heavier or stronger wind shear,
00:55so it's going to have a lot of
00:58It's going to have a battle here ahead,
01:00but you'll note we have this increasing
01:02wind shear low wind shear in the Gulf
01:05of Mexico before even just this past weekend.
01:07It was strong wind shear throughout,
01:09but now we're starting to see some changes,
01:12though something working in our favor.
01:14The ocean heat content has
01:16dropped down to levels.
01:17Typically that we saw over the past
01:19decade or so from 2013 and 2023.
01:22So we look at this parameter really,
01:24especially for something like
01:26rapid intensification, so we're
01:27not necessarily calling for that.
01:29That is something that is
01:30working in our favor, at least,
01:32but it really depends on how much
01:35wind shear can hold on to its
01:37rain along the Gulf Coast.
01:38Either way, it's going to be
01:40bringing some heavy rainfall.
01:42Of course, we're going to continue
01:44to monitor this as this is a
01:46little bit far out, but Jeff,
01:48you know we're calling for those
01:50US impacts here by the weekend
01:52and we'll be watching this very
01:54closely here, Bree.
01:54It.