00:00History continues to be rewritten every day.
00:03Oh, that's gorgeous.
00:05Every now and then there are moments.
00:07There are moments.
00:08Not many, but every now and then.
00:10All right, September 14th, that's today.
00:12This is the latest during the satellite era in the Atlantic Basin that we've ever had to wait for a
00:18hurricane.
00:19We haven't had one yet.
00:20The historical averages, I believe, is August 11th.
00:25But we've never had to wait this long during the satellite era.
00:28So mid 60s here, the old records, September 11th.
00:31That was on Friday, 9-11-02-2013.
00:36Just to go over the season, we've had five storms, all tropical storms.
00:41We've had impacts.
00:42The latest was Edward that did a number on the upper Texas coast with heavy rain spreading inland here.
00:50But just to give you some historical context, we should be at eight storms already.
00:54And in fact, by Wednesday, it should be nine.
00:56We should have our fourth hurricane on September 16th.
01:00And we should have our third major hurricane.
01:03That's Category 3.
01:04Maximum staying winds of at least 111 miles per hour.
01:06We should have that on the 19th.
01:09And if you do the math, that would be five days from now.
01:11I believe that's Saturday.
01:1419th.
01:14Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.
01:16Wait, Wednesday's the 16th.
01:18Thursday's the 17th.
01:19Yep.
01:19How about that?
01:20Look at that.
01:20Minus one.
01:21Yeah, out of three hectares.
01:24Yeah.
01:25Anyway, so now when you look at the season, there's still a lot of the season.
01:30Now, that tells it graphically.
01:32I've made this graphic.
01:34This one?
01:34This one coming up.
01:35You ready?
01:35Oh, I was like, okay.
01:37So this is the graphic.
01:39After September 16th, this is what we typically would see.
01:43Typically, in a normal hurricane season, this has been anything but.
01:47Five named storms and three hurricanes.
01:50That's from the 17th of September during the rest of the season.
01:55So this is what we should be seeing.
01:57Now, you would think that these numbers aren't going to be reached.
02:01You would think.
02:02But this isn't an average season.
02:03This is what we would get.
02:05Now, what's going on?
02:07Well, there's two main problems for development, what we call hostile for development in the
02:13Atlantic Basin.
02:13First of all, the dry air.
02:15And you could see the dry air, not as widespread as we saw last week.
02:20But, boy, this dry air right off the African coast.
02:22So anytime these waves come off, they come right in the dry air.
02:25And the dry air does not allow tropical waves to get better organized.
02:29Also, some dry air in the Caribbean.
02:30But it is starting to lessen a little bit.
02:32But the wind shear is widespread.
02:34You're going to see wind shear in the dark purple here that goes from the Caribbean all
02:39the way to the African coast.
02:41But there are two areas where you don't have wind shear.
02:46Here in the central Atlantic, here's Bermuda south and east.
02:49And then in this zone in here from the Gulf toward the east coast of the United States,
02:54that's in the darker shade or lighter shade, I should say, of purple.
02:59So those are the areas you watch.
03:02Satellite.
03:03You've got this.
03:04You've got this upper low here.
03:05You see this spinning in here.
03:07Now, this would have to take some time.
03:09But you could see a healthy area of showers and thunderstorms.
03:12We've made this a moderate risk for this week.
03:14And I think if we do get a storm this week, this is the most likely location.
03:19If we would get a hurricane, it wouldn't be until this weekend.
03:21And this would be the most likely location.
03:24We have a moderate risk on it.
03:25Would this impact the United States?
03:27I don't think so because eventually as it would form, it would get pushed out to sea by another dip
03:32in the jet stream coming into the east coast.
03:34Now, the other area to watch is this frontal boundary that's coming through the northeast.
03:39Now, this is what it looks like on satellite.
03:42Let me show you on the upper area.
03:43And what you're going to see is you've got a dip in the jet stream that splits.
03:46This is a classic way.
03:48You get homegrown development where you get the interaction between the jet stream and the tropics.
03:53Because as it splits, you lose the northern piece.
03:56But there's the southern piece.
03:57Let's watch it.
03:58Tuesday and then Wednesday, it's off the Carolina coast.
04:02Look off to the west.
04:04You have high pressure.
04:06This is another area.
04:07The belly of the upper high because you get easterly winds.
04:10And that can help spin up things.
04:12So this piece of energy, first of all, goes off of Florida.
04:15I don't think it would develop in the southwestern Atlantic off the Carolina coast.
04:19If it would develop, take a breath, get everybody caught up because I'm talking fast.
04:25This is where you would see it Friday and the Saturday.
04:28Now, for this to develop, it has to sit over here for 48 hours, maybe 72 hours.
04:32I don't think it sits there long enough.
04:34And that's why we have only a small risk for that.
04:38But that's another area to watch.
04:40That's why you go to the gym.
04:41You've got to up your cardio for these long hits.
04:43I don't like cardio, quite honestly.
04:44Don't put you down for cardio.
04:45All right.
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