Could we see another tropical storm in the Atlantic after Oscar?

AccuWeather

Oscar, now a tropical rainstorm, is moving toward Bermuda, but if another tropical storm forms in the weeks ahead, where would it be?

Transcript

00:00The Atlantic hurricane season is not over yet. That's right. Bernie Randall spoke earlier with

00:04Accuweather lead hurricane expert Alex Da Silva to get some insight on what may be in store.

00:11It feels like every year we have some kind of hybrid storm or something around the Halloween

00:16time and I think this year may be no different here as we're really going to have to watch the

00:20end of October into November but still about 20 to 23 percent or so of the hurricane season left so

00:26we really don't want to let our guard down especially this year it's been so active recently

00:31I think we can see another storm or two certainly for the rest of the season. Yeah let's talk about

00:36this because when you look and you start getting into October and especially late October while

00:42September you have to look everywhere for development it starts coming a little closer

00:47to the United States by the end of October. Yeah it certainly does Caribbean Gulf of Mexico and

00:52right off the southeast coast is where we look and then where do these storms go typically they

00:56move a little bit north and then usually out to sea but we do have to watch the east coast sometimes

01:02you get a dip in the jet stream to combine with one of these storms moving north that can pull

01:06the storm a little bit closer to the east coast so we're going to have to watch things as we head

01:10over the next couple of weeks here. Well let's take a look at the Caribbean that's one of the

01:14locations of course and certainly the Gulf of Mexico although typically it is a lot farther

01:19south for development but you start you know listen water temperatures are always warm in

01:24the Caribbean warm enough for development this time of the year Alex. Yeah usually we look for

01:2880 degrees Fahrenheit yeah you see that in the Gulf of Mexico right around that 80 but look at

01:32how warm it is in the western Caribbean middle 80s still as we head towards the end of October so

01:38plenty of fuel for something if something gets going in the western Caribbean. Let's take a look

01:42at the pattern next week so this is early next week what caught my eye is this in at around 500

01:48millibars let's say 5,000 up well above 5,000 feet I should say you have this upper high across

01:55Puerto Rico and I think you're going to be seeing energy Alex coming out of South America. Yeah

02:00something comes out of South America it's kind of the time of the year when we really start to look

02:03for the gyre as well across Central America so I think something's going to try to form in the

02:08central or western Caribbean right around that Halloween time frame and into the beginning of

02:13November so this is something we're really going to have to watch out for look at this

02:16almost no wind shear in that part of the basin we have a lot of wind shear to the north

02:20but there's going to be a pocket there in the Caribbean where there's very very little wind

02:24shear warm water temperatures it's going to be a very conducive area for development.

02:29AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex Da Silva. Alex thanks for joining us here.

02:35We can take you to the Turks and Caicos here and on October 14th this was five days in advance of

02:41the National Hurricane Center and any other known source AccuWeather exclusively issued a track and

02:46intensity forecast for a tropical rainstorm that ultimately became Tropical Storm and even

02:50Hurricane Oscar north of the Greater Antilles on October 19th. Our goal is to provide you with the

02:56most advanced notice so you can make the best decisions for you and your family that storm

03:00rapidly intensified and our team of forecasters 100 plus strong here at AccuWeather were on top

03:07of that. The Turks and Caicos here 86 degrees right now and as we look at the satellite loop

03:12our storm again Oscar now a tropical rainstorm kind of a disembodied storm at this point.

03:18The center of circulation is kind of on the western fringe of the big plume of convection

03:22and it's not really a healthy system that it once was as a trough is scooping this up and it will

03:27send some wind and rain up into areas to the north. If you look closely there's Bermuda there

03:32and this is going to be moving in that general direction bringing some heavy rain and some wind

03:36in that direction. Overall there is some heavy rain tied to this most of the rain is now pulling

03:40north of the Turks and Caicos away from the Bahamas and away from from Cuba. They got a lot

03:45of infrastructure problems there in eastern Cuba with the recent power failure even separate from

03:51from this particular storm so there are problems here with electrical supply in eastern Cuba that

03:56will continue but by the numbers we've had 15 named storms so far we average about 13 by now

04:02so we're not too far from the average here but what has been a little unusual we've had a

04:05disproportionately high number of hurricanes this year and especially U.S. landfalling hurricanes

04:11we've had four major hurricanes we average about three major hurricanes by now and here we have

04:15tropical rainstorm Oscar again lopsided the center of circulation west of the bulk of the deep

04:20convection this is going to be racing northeast and it'll send some raw wind and heavy rain into

04:26the area of Bermuda but not as impactful as it was down into Cuba. Two to four inches of rain

04:31this storm will have an accuweather real impact scale rating of less than one in Bermuda and that

04:36is no surprise they are very susceptible or they're very prepared for hurricanes and a storm

04:41like this is no match for Bermuda they're going to be just fine but water still warm you can see

04:46the oceanic heat contents drop down actually below average for the gulf but it's way above

04:50average out of the open Atlantic.

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