00:00When you look at the hurricane season, certainly there's been a drop off historically once we get
00:06towards September 10th, but from September through November during that time frame,
00:11there's little times where we get little bump ups. We see that in mid-October and late October.
00:18Yeah, well you know the 30-year average is for about one storm every two years during the month
00:23of November, but over the last about 10 years we've seen that activity much more frequent where
00:28the average is about one storm every year or so. So we've seen more November storms here in most
00:33recent years and we still have about 18 or 19 percent left in the hurricane season. Us at
00:39AccuWeather, we're forecasting at least another one to three named storms during the month of
00:42November, so could be pretty active here. All right, let's go into the Caribbean and the Southwest
00:48Atlantic, two areas that we're watching, but certainly as we've been talking about for the
00:54last 10 days, the Caribbean's the area really to watch. Yeah, it certainly is. That yellow highlighted
01:00area, there's a lot of wind shear up there. Even if it develops, I think it goes out to sea with
01:03no impact to the United States. Like you just mentioned, the red area there in the Caribbean,
01:07we've been highlighting this area for well over a week now. This is the area where I'm concerned
01:12that we could see development here during the first couple of days of November. Yeah, already
01:16we've had showers and thunderstorms. You could see them, different clusters. One south of Puerto Rico,
01:22one north of Panama, another to the east of Cancun, but right now, boy oh boy, just take a look
01:29at the water vapor loop and you can see why we're not getting any development. Yeah, there's a lot
01:33of wind shear, especially in the northern Caribbean right now. You can see all those clouds moving
01:37really, really quickly from left to right. That is an indication of a lot of wind shear. Now, I do think
01:42over the next couple of days, that will begin to relax and those thunderstorms that you see way
01:46down near Panama City will be able to come to the north and try to consolidate. Warm water. Now, the
01:53water in this part of the Atlantic Basin is always warm enough for development this time of the year,
01:58but you're looking at the anomalies, Alex, and this has been one of the keys to our hurricane forecast,
02:04how warm the waters have been in the Atlantic Basin this season. Yeah, the waters in the Caribbean,
02:09several degrees above the historical average. They should be in the low 80s. They're more like the
02:13mid 80s, so plenty of juice to work with if something gets going. Yeah, the wind shear, we
02:18looked at it on the water vapor loop. You could clearly see it here in our wind shear product.
02:22Yeah, that dark purple indicating areas of high wind shear. So right now, the Caribbean is not
02:27open for business. Nothing's going to develop here over the next couple of days, but I think as we go
02:31into the weekend and early next week, that is your best chance. The wind shear is going to shift to
02:35the north and it's going to create a pretty favorable environment, I think, across the Caribbean for
02:39development. Now, back on Monday, you came to me and said, Bernie, I'm worried that when we're
02:46looking at more of a western track, that we have to leave the window open for turn toward the north
02:52toward Florida. You and Alex Duffs both told me that, and I resisted a little bit until I looked
02:59at history and some of the what the pattern would look like, and that possibility is still there.
03:04You guys were right about that. Yeah, I mean, historically, you would expect the storm to move
03:08north, maybe across Cuba, Hispaniola and out to sea. But the problem is going to be that we expect
03:13a large area of high pressure to build over the east coast of the United States.
03:17That's going to pretty much shut the door for this to escape to the northeast. And so it's
03:21probably going to be pushed to the west. Now, it might just be pushed west into Central America
03:26and no threat to the United States. But the window is going to be open for a late turn
03:30back to the northeast in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, I think.
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