00:00I want to bring in our AccuWeather lead hurricane meteorologist, Alex DeSilva.
00:06Alex, it was last week that we talked about behind air and we would likely get Ferdinand,
00:11but we'd go through a little period where, at least in the Atlantic Basin,
00:16where it would be a little bit more tranquil.
00:19Yeah, sometimes you can get these lulls in the middle of the hurricane season,
00:22and it looks like we're going to be having one at least across the main development region.
00:26End of this month, and I think through probably just about the full first week of September,
00:31there's going to be a lot of sinking air across the Atlantic Basin.
00:35But then things are going to switch as we head towards that second week of September.
00:38There's going to be a lot of vertical motion, I think,
00:40and so we're going to have to watch those tropical waves very carefully.
00:43Could be like flipping a switch in the Atlantic at the end of the first week of September.
00:47But even though it's a little more tranquil, it doesn't mean that there's not anything to track.
00:50And as we talked about, all week we'd get a second storm.
00:54A second storm last week, and that was further down, and that developed into a storm on Saturday.
01:02Yeah, and the good news is it's trended away from Bermuda.
01:05A couple days ago we thought maybe it could get a little bit closer to potentially bring some impacts.
01:08The good news is it's trended further east.
01:10Nothing to worry about with this one.
01:11This one's going out to sea with no impacts.
01:14All right, across the rest of the Atlantic Basin,
01:16a couple of things that we're watching, two tropical waves off Africa.
01:20And then there's that system, Alex, that we're still tracking moving across the Lesser Antilles this morning.
01:27Yeah, but look at these tropical waves.
01:29They don't look good at all.
01:30They look pretty sick out there.
01:32Lots of dry air is really hindering them right now.
01:34So like we just talked about, it doesn't look like there's going to be much going on with these.
01:38This one's coming through the islands right now.
01:40I don't think anything happens in the short term, but maybe, you know, as we go in towards the weekend,
01:46it's got a shot, but look at all the dry air in front of it.
01:48All this gold color and brown color, this is all dry air.
01:51But you can see Western Caribbean, you can see a little bit more, you know, moisture there.
01:56And a similar story with the wind shear product here.
01:58You can see, you know, Eastern Caribbean and Central Caribbean too,
02:02lots of purple indicating high amounts of wind shear.
02:05But look in the Western Caribbean, maybe the Southwestern Gulf, maybe some lower wind shear.
02:09So nothing happens in the short term, but we've got to at least keep a half eye out for it
02:14by the time it gets over to the Western Caribbean.
02:17Big dip in the eastern United States, of course, bringing in the cool conditions
02:22all the way down into the southeast, Alex.
02:24And when you get a big dip in the jet stream this far south, it's a little early in the year for that.
02:31That is always a little bit of a concern for us.
02:35Yeah, we always talk about homegrown development.
02:37And usually it's the bookends of the season, early in the season, late in the season.
02:41Not too often do you actually get it in the middle of the hurricane season.
02:44But like you said, we are getting that front to come unusually far south for this time of the year
02:49over the holiday weekend here.
02:51And we have a chance that, you know, the waters are very warm in this area.
02:55We could potentially see some development.
02:57Yeah.
02:58And with that, we do think there's a low pressure system that develops.
03:02Now, will it gain tropical characteristics?
03:05Maybe a little up in the air, but there's going to be some impacts with it.
03:09Yeah, regardless, it's going to be a stalled cold front that comes down there
03:12and you can get potentially some development.
03:14But either way, regardless of tropical development,
03:17it looks like it's going to be a pretty wet holiday weekend across portions of Florida
03:21and maybe coastal Carolinas as well.
03:23AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex Da Silva.
03:26Alex, thanks for breaking it down here.
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