00:00Hello, and welcome to the Met Office ten day trend. To sum it up, the next ten days, low
00:05pressure will more often than not affect our weather. Low pressure of course brings wind
00:10and outbreaks of rain, but it's never wet and windy all the time in the UK. There will
00:15be some drier insuludes and actually later next week the chance of some longer drier
00:19insuludes. In other words, it's typical October weather, despite the fact that parts of the
00:26UK will be impacted by an ex-hurricane over the next few days. And there's been nothing
00:32typical about Hurricane Lorenzo so far. It was a Category 5 monster at the weekend. The
00:39furthest east Category 5 hurricane has existed in the Atlantic Basin. This satellite sequence
00:45shows it transforming from a Category 2 to a Category 1 hurricane during Tuesday and
00:49into Wednesday. Now bearing down upon the Azores as a hurricane, but it does transform
00:55into a typical area of low pressure. The isobars start to disappear from it. The low
01:00slowly fills, still enough intensity by the time it reaches parts of Ireland on Thursday
01:07afternoon and into the evening for some potent wind gusts, 60 mph gusts, especially around
01:13coasts and hills of Northern Ireland and some big waves, coastal overtopping and so forth.
01:19So yellow warning in force for that. And MetErin are expecting even worse impacts for
01:25the Republic of Ireland. They've issued orange warnings and they have named it Storm Lorenzo.
01:31Now the strongest winds then overnight transfer to the southwest of the UK. South Wales, southwest
01:38England, 65 mph gusts. So yes, an ex-hurricane, but by this stage a typical area of low pressure
01:47that we often see at this time of year. Still strong enough to cause some impacts, especially
01:52around coastal parts of the southwest as we kick off Friday. But look at this, it quickly
01:57disappears later Friday. Lorenzo just fills completely and decays entirely from the UK.
02:06The isobars open out quite significantly in its wake. It's not just the winds that are
02:11likely to cause some issues. There's also going to be some wet weather on Thursday afternoon
02:15initially into Northern Ireland, some rain pushing into Wales there, southwest England,
02:19and then that wet weather sweeps across much of England, Wales, southern and western Scotland.
02:24Another pulse of rain then moves through Northern Ireland and then that pushes back into Wales.
02:29So some places, for example southwest Scotland, northern Ireland, western parts of England
02:33as well as Wales, 25 mm in one or two spots, more exposed hills for example, 50 mm of rainfall.
02:41The wet and windy weather though doesn't last long. Thursday night, Friday morning
02:45and then it gets out of the way. Meanwhile the far north and northeast, a largely quiet
02:50spell of weather, a few showers, a lot of cloud cover, but that quieter weather then
02:55transfers elsewhere by Friday afternoon. So a short-lived wind and rain spell, courtesy
03:02of an ex-hurricane, but it's all soon forgotten about. Temperatures around average for the
03:06time of year. A shadow of its former self, hard to believe this was once a category five
03:11hurricane as it pushes into the continent. Dwarfed by this low, a huge beast of a low
03:17heading towards Iceland. This isn't an ex-hurricane, it's just a normal area of low pressure formed
03:23by the jet stream. But it does bring with it some weather fronts, those weather fronts
03:27pushing in ahead of that low. The winds tend to drop out along those weather fronts and
03:31they become slow moving heading into the weekend. And that means actually on Saturday many places
03:36will have a fine day. A lot of cloud cover but it will be bright enough, some sunshine
03:40coming through for eastern parts of the country. The breeze picking up, outbreaks of rain later
03:45on Saturday appearing into western Scotland, west Wales, south west England and northern
03:49Ireland and that will make it feel cool. But it's actually temperatures generally mid to
03:55high teens. Now it's the rain in the west that moves its way eastwards that is a little
04:01bit uncertain at the moment because it really slows down. In fact it stalls by the start
04:06of Sunday. So western areas seeing the rain move through but across the central two thirds
04:11of the country, well it's the chance that on Sunday that rainfall could stick around
04:15and it could be heavy at times. Some uncertainty in terms of the exact position of this but
04:20it's likely that through the day northern Ireland, west Wales, south west England will
04:24brighten up with a few showers, cloudier and wetter elsewhere with those outbreaks of rain
04:29feeling cold with wind from the North Sea into eastern parts of Scotland. For example
04:3413 Celsius here at best, brighter skies, some sunshine emerging into the south west. And
04:41another low comes along this one actually we're more confident about heading into the
04:46start of next week compared to the weekend's low. Hard to believe that because actually
04:51it comes from nothing if we rewind the clock to Friday. This is it off the United States
04:57Canada eastern seaboard and you can see how the jet stream picks it up and deepens it
05:02rapidly. More and more isobars added to that low pressure as it moves across the Atlantic.
05:06This is Sunday and then it pushes towards Iceland by Monday. Again it brings weather
05:12fronts with it, it brings tight isobars and that means that it's on Monday a spell of
05:17wet and windy weather for virtually all of us. The winds potentially causing some issues
05:22for western Scotland, gales in places or even severe gales. The rain crossing the country
05:28slowly through Monday, everywhere likely to get wet. We don't need more rain of course
05:33in many parts of the UK. And it does clear through. By Tuesday it's clearing from the
05:38south east and then brighter skies but also frequent showers follow on. So what's the
05:44weather looking like for the middle of next week? Well we've still got this area of low
05:48pressure in place, we've still got a fairly lively jet stream running close to the UK
05:54and we've still got some tight isobars there. So breezy, further showers or outbreaks of
05:59rain coming in from the west, especially across northern and western parts of Scotland where
06:04there's likely to be gales, some hail, some thunder, some very lively weather. Further
06:08south and east a little drier and actually as we head towards the end of next week there
06:13are indications and I wouldn't take this too literally, it's just one computer model run,
06:18there are indications that high pressure will start to build in from the south west
06:23and by the end of next week this is something that could happen. High pressure building
06:28in from the south and west and something a little more settled, more long drier insuludes
06:35coming in for southern and eastern Britain but staying changeable with a keen breeze
06:40and further showers across northern and western Scotland. So typical October weather, lots
06:44going on over the next few days and of course you can keep up to date with all the very
06:48latest by following us on social media. Bye bye.
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