00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend. We've seen a different side to autumn
00:04during the last few days. Frosty, foggy mornings, drier days as well. But we are back to some
00:11wind and rain at least at first over the next 10 days. Not for everyone, but in some places
00:16it will be very wet. Once that rain finally clears through later in the weekend, though,
00:21we're back to drier and colder weather potentially through next week. In fact, it's fairly chilly
00:28in places as we start off Thursday. Quite a gloomy start actually for eastern and central
00:34parts of England. A lot of mist and low cloud around. And then some wet weather moving in
00:39for East Anglia, East Midlands, central southern England and the south east. This rain slowly
00:44petering out and clearing east. And then brighter skies follow. Plenty of sunshine in northern
00:48and western Britain finally, but with some showers. And those showers falling as hill
00:52snow across Scotland because we've got these blues coming in behind the weather fronts.
00:57Colder air returning. A widespread frost as we start off Friday in the north, but further
01:03south subtropical air is pushing back in. And this conveyor belt of warmth, well, it
01:11will translate not necessarily to warm air, but to high rainfall totals across western
01:18and central parts of the UK starting off Friday. Southwest England, Wales, a wet start to the
01:24day. That rain then moves its way steadily north and east. East Anglia in the south east
01:29largely avoiding it for the time being. The north of Scotland still sunny spells and wintry
01:33showers. But in between the wet weather moves in and as it bumps into the cold air could
01:38see a few flakes of snow over the tops of the peaks of northern England, southern Scotland.
01:42But what's of more concern, I think, is the strength of the wind pushing in all this rainfall
01:47and the amount of rainfall that we're likely to see piling up over western hills, Pennines,
01:52Welsh mountains, we're likely to see amounts of rainfall 40 to 60 millimetres widely over
01:57the hills. In some places, 100 mils plus. Yellow warning force, risk of localised flooding
02:05Friday into Saturday. Very wet spell of weather. Northern England into the far south of Scotland,
02:10Wales, western England as well. That's where the rainfall is as we start off the weekend.
02:15Wet weather plans, I think, need to be made for Saturday in these locations. A dry start
02:19to the weekend in the south east. Windy with that rain as well. It's bringing in gales
02:24around coasts of Wales and south west as well. And then those gales transferring their way
02:29along the channel. Meanwhile, Scotland brighter on Saturday compared to the rest of the country
02:34with showers. And then, well, finally, by the start of Sunday, the rain's out of the
02:39way. Some uncertainty on the timings of that rain, but it will clear through by Sunday
02:43and Sunday's looking a lot more straightforward. A bright, crisp sort of autumn day if that
02:48floats your boat. But for much of Scotland, it's a case of sunny spells and showers. And
02:54again, chance of some snow on the hilltops. 400, 500 metres or so. Most widespread hill
03:00snow of the season so far in Scotland. Nothing unusual for this time of year, of course.
03:04But it will feel cold widely across the UK, particularly in this strong wind that's blowing
03:09across northern and western Britain. Meanwhile, sunny spells, cold but bright essentially
03:15for many places on Sunday. A real difference compared to the wind and rain of Saturday.
03:20A similar day to come on Monday. A widespread frost with this cold air digging south. And
03:25then it's a crisp, bright kind of autumn day. Just a few showers around windward coasts
03:31of northern and eastern Britain. Otherwise, most places dry because high pressure is building
03:35in. That high pressure building in, of course, with cold air in place. And that means that
03:41it's still going to be below average as we go through Monday and into Tuesday. Fairly
03:46widely blues across the country there with temperatures 2 to 4 degrees below average.
03:53And that high pressure also tending to disrupt the jet stream. Now, the jet stream recently
03:58has been coming out of North America and directing low pressure after low pressure towards the
04:01UK. But with high pressure to the northwest of the country through to the middle part
04:06of next week, the jet stream coming out of North America then does that. It becomes disrupted.
04:12It's unable to send low pressure after low pressure in. But there's always the chance.
04:17And it's a small chance at the moment, always a chance that a filament of the jet may pick
04:21up on a low pressure like this one, for example, and send it towards us. This is one computer
04:27model outcome for the middle part of next week. This is Wednesday. And just a small
04:32filament of the jet stream deepens an area of low pressure and sends it to the UK, nudging
04:37the high out of the way temporarily. So always the chance. Around Wednesday that we could
04:42see some wind and rain across southern parts of Britain and some milder air whilst high
04:46pressure remains further or closest to northern Britain. But only a couple of computer models
04:53suggest that. Most of them suggest that high pressure will remain dominant throughout next
04:58week and even if that low pressure does happen, this builds in behind it anyway. So in summary,
05:05next week we're most likely to have high pressure nearby, especially close to northern Britain.
05:12There's always the possibility that low pressure will sneak into southern parts of the country
05:17around the middle of the week, late Tuesday through to Thursday morning. But it's a possibility
05:23rather than a certainty. Otherwise, most of the time next week I think that many places
05:27will just be dry. It will be chilly both by day and especially by night with frosts
05:33and fog. So a different side to autumn. And as we head into the new month, November of
05:39course, it might start to feel a bit more seasonal. Of course, this is just a trend
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