00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend. The volatile, boisterous British weather
00:05continues for the time being and over the next 10 days, little sign of a significant
00:10let-up in conditions. There'll be more wind and rain with a particular focus on Storm
00:15Dennis through Saturday to Monday. Then it turns less stormy next week but there'll still
00:22be unsettled weather around. There's a number of low-pressure systems lined up to arrive
00:29over the next few days. There's one here to come in for Thursday, one here to come in
00:33on Friday. Those are not Storm Dennis. Storm Dennis is third in the queue, still just a
00:40tiny small-scale feature forming off the coast of the US on Wednesday. Our focus in the immediate
00:46term is this low which moves in on Wednesday night and pushes in against very cold air
00:52with minus 12 degrees possible across northern Scotland, bringing mild air to the rest of
00:58the country but also wind and rain gales around southern and western coasts, blustery
01:02showers and as the rain pushes into southern Scotland, northern England, northern Ireland,
01:08first thing Thursday, risk of snow over the higher ground, particularly for parts of southern
01:13Scotland. A few centimetres could cause disruption first part of the day. It all eases away.
01:18Cold but bright for northern Scotland, northern Ireland eventually. Cold and grey for southern
01:23Scotland, north-east England. Blustery showers elsewhere, some lively downpours especially
01:27around south-western districts, mild in the south, 10 or 11 Celsius. Fast forward to Friday,
01:33a cold bright start for many, doesn't last long, turns cloudy through the day. Wind and
01:39rain return to north-western and eventually western parts of the country. Some snow over
01:43the Scottish mountains but mainly this is a rain event and risk of flooding over the
01:49higher ground of southern Scotland in particular because of the rainfall and some snow melt.
01:54So it turns unsettled from the west through Friday. As I say, this is the second area
01:58of low pressure and it's still not Storm Dennis. That moves through, bringing some rain to
02:03southern parts of the country as we end the working week. By this stage, Storm Dennis
02:07is developing quite significantly, powered along by a very strong jet stream. You can
02:14see the dark colours there, the straight line jet stream firing it towards the UK and it
02:19deepens into a particularly deep area of low pressure, perhaps around 915 millibars which
02:24isn't particularly common in the Atlantic. And look how long it sticks around for. This
02:29is Saturday into Sunday, Storm Dennis still to the north of the UK. And through later
02:35Sunday into Monday, Storm Dennis hanging around like a bad smell and it's still with us as
02:41we start next week. The close ice bars through Saturday, Sunday and Monday, bringing strong
02:46winds for three days, if not slightly longer. So let's look at the winds. Now there are
02:54some differences when you compare Storm Dennis this weekend with Storm Ciara last weekend.
03:00The winds will still be strong widely across the country as we start off the weekend. Weather
03:05warnings in force for England, Wales, southern Scotland where the winds will be strongest
03:10during Saturday. Risk of gusts inland of 50 miles an hour and around exposed coasts of
03:1560, perhaps 70 miles an hour could cause disruption. But those winds are a notch down compared to
03:20Storm Ciara of last weekend. So don't expect an exact repeat of last weekend across England
03:26and Wales. Now through Sunday, our attention turns a bit more to parts of northwest Scotland
03:31into Northern Ireland where by now there's a wind warning because tight ice bars there
03:36as Storm Dennis starts to swing round and approach from the northwest. Now some uncertainty
03:41by this stage and into Monday about exactly how tight these ice bars will be and whether
03:47there are small scale low pressure systems that develop as well to bring an even stronger
03:51swathe of winds into parts of say the central belt of Scotland. And it's by Monday that
03:56the strongest winds will be across northern parts of the UK, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
04:00Elsewhere the winds beginning to ease, but essentially it's windy for three days. Risk
04:04of gales, risk of disruption. But the rain is of particular concern as well with Storm
04:11Dennis. Now the wet weather sets in across all parts on Saturday. The heaviest rain will
04:16be over western hills, some let up there with blustery showers for northern areas through
04:21Saturday night. But by Sunday another swathe of heavy rainfall potentially pushes back
04:26into much of England and Wales. And it's over the higher ground of western Scotland, western
04:31parts of England as well as Wales where the wettest weather will be. Falling onto saturated
04:35ground 40 mils widely, 80 mils plus over the higher ground. Risk of flooding because of
04:42the persistence and the heaviness of that rainfall Saturday through to Sunday. So wet
04:47and windy weekend, multitude of things going on with the weather. It's not going to be
04:52a repeat of Storm Ciara but nevertheless some disruption is likely due to the winds and
04:58of course that risk of flooding. Any signs of the weather settling down at all? Well
05:03once Dennis moves away, middle of next week, high pressure starts to ridge in from the
05:09south but only slightly. We're still likely to see these tight isobars, we're still likely
05:13to see showers through Wednesday and the start of Thursday, especially across western areas
05:18with snow over the hills. So some sunshine, some drier weather for a time, middle of next
05:24week but another low appears by the end of next week to bring yet more wind and rain.
05:30So days 7 to 10, sun and showers, drier, slightly quieter interlude, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday
05:38and then yet more wind and rain. But it looks like when that arrives end of next week it
05:44probably won't be quite as stormy as Ciara or as Dennis. So the unsettled weather continues
05:51but hopefully a let up in the disruptive conditions through next week. Before that happens of
05:56course stay up to date with the latest weather forecasts and latest weather warnings and
06:01the best way to do that is by following the Met Office on social media, heading to the
06:05website and of course downloading the app because there's an awful lot of weather happening
06:09during the next few days.
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