This is the Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next 10 days 24/09/2025. A band of rain is going to push through this weekend, otherwise the weather looks mostly fine into October. Bringing you this week’s 10 Day Trend is Alex Burkill.
00:00It's been a tale of two halves this September, an unsettled start, lots of wet weather around,
00:05but then things have turned much drier and much calmer.
00:08And that's the theme that we're going to take really through the next 10 days, or at least much of it.
00:13Currently, the jet stream is meandering to the north of the UK, and it's that that's led to high pressure building.
00:19We've had high pressure dominating through much of this week, and it's going to continue to do so as we go through the end of the week,
00:26albeit it does shift a little bit away towards the east.
00:29That being said, lots of dry, calm weather to come as we go through Wednesday night into Thursday.
00:34So, again, a chilly start for many of us on Thursday morning.
00:37And then through Thursday itself, well, a fine day, plenty of sunshine on offer.
00:41Just worth noting, towards the southeast, the northwest, there could be a bit more of a breeze here.
00:46Notice the isobars a bit closer together.
00:48Then into Friday, again, another largely fine day, though perhaps more cloud coming in from the east,
00:54and this could bring a few spots of rain, a few showers perhaps, but generally dry.
00:58And actually across western areas, seeing a good deal of sunny weather as well.
01:03Though worth highlighting, there is a frontal system, a band of rain out towards the west of us,
01:08so that's set to come across as we go through this weekend.
01:11I'll have the details of that in a second.
01:14When it comes to these 10-day trends, I often find when I'm talking about the weekend,
01:18it's always important to look at what's happening at the other side of the Atlantic,
01:22and that's definitely the case this week as well.
01:25Hurricane Gabriel, what's a major hurricane, is tracking its way eastwards towards Europe.
01:31Now, it's likely to take quite a southern track, heading towards the Azores.
01:35In fact, the Azores do have a hurricane warning out for Thursday into Friday
01:39because of the risk of some heavy rain, some very strong winds as this feature pushes its way through.
01:44Then it's likely to track further eastwards towards the Bay of Biscay before eventually decaying as it goes.
01:50But, even though it's relatively far away from the UK, what it does do is it influences our weather, as we often see.
01:59And there are some question marks, there are some uncertainties about what's going to happen through this weekend.
02:05But let's go through what we do know.
02:07Well, that front that I highlighted earlier later on Friday, that's going to come closer
02:11and is going to push in as we go through Saturday.
02:14But the raw Met Office model is indicating a small area of low pressure developing just to the northwest of us.
02:21And if this comes off, then we'd get a wraparound of rain and also some strong gusty winds towards the northwest.
02:28But I'm not so sure.
02:29Many other models don't actually have this separate low feature developing.
02:33And instead, we just have this band of rain making its way from north to south.
02:38And it's all going to push its way eastwards across the country.
02:41So, whether or not we get the blustery winds towards the northwest, I'm not so sure.
02:45But, nonetheless, we're pretty confident of this band of rain pushing through.
02:49That band of rain is then going to make its way eastwards across the country as we go through Saturday
02:53and clearing sometime on Sunday.
02:55But there's uncertainty as to exactly how quickly it clears, all due to what was Hurricane Gabriel.
03:03Because the Met Office model, again, I'm showing you here, has it decaying near the Bay of Biscay
03:09and edging a little bit further southwards.
03:11But some model runs, here are some forecast tracks from various different outputs,
03:17some model runs have it going a bit further north.
03:19And if it goes further north, then it could interfere with the front that's pushing across the UK
03:25and actually cause it to hang back a little bit and stall.
03:29And so, across some eastern, southeast and even southern parts of the UK,
03:33we could see some cloudier, wetter weather for a little while longer.
03:37Let's look at the details, though, for this Saturday.
03:39And we have this band of rain pushing through, going west to east.
03:42Some heavy bursts.
03:43We're talking 20 to 40 millimetres, perhaps, in the wettest places, western higher ground, for example.
03:48But then it's likely to clear away.
03:51As I highlighted, there could be some stronger winds towards the northwest,
03:53but I'm not expecting it to be especially strong.
03:57And then the Met Office model currently wants that to clear away.
04:00So, actually, Sunday, apart from a few sherry bursts here and there, looks largely fine.
04:04But there's a reasonable chance that that cloud, that rain, that band,
04:08could linger, at least across some eastern, southeastern parts, through Sunday as well,
04:13if Gabriel just tracks a little bit further northwards.
04:16And so, worth bearing in mind that the detail for this Sunday, well, that's still a little bit uncertain.
04:22Although we are going to see that band of rain clearing through at some point,
04:25it may take a little while longer than the raw model is suggesting.
04:30But let's look further ahead.
04:32This is the 10-day trend after all.
04:34And these are our most likely outcomes for this coming Monday, so the 29th of September.
04:39And the most likely idea is, once that band of rain clears through, however quickly it goes through,
04:45we're going to then see high pressure building behind it.
04:48And this high pressure is likely to then dominate again.
04:51I did say the second half of September as a whole looks like it's going to be more settled.
04:56And that's what we're likely to see again once that band of rain pushes through this weekend.
05:00So, high pressure somewhere towards the northeast of the UK looks quite likely.
05:05The second and third most likely setups for next Monday don't look too dissimilar.
05:09Again, high pressure, the most dominating story.
05:11And if this comes off, well, it looks like it will be a bit drier than average with more fine and settled weather.
05:17Worth bearing in mind, though, that front could still be lingering as we go through into Monday.
05:22So, it could be a bit of a slow progress to see this high building.
05:25Nonetheless, as we go through later next week, Tuesday also looks like we're going to still see high pressure most dominant.
05:32And, in fact, it's a similar story through Wednesday.
05:35I mean, Wednesday, the third most likely outcome, albeit only with a 10% chance,
05:39does have lower pressure somewhere closer towards the UK, more towards the northwest of us.
05:44But the most likely setup is still for high pressure to dominate.
05:47And that's the theme as we go through the end of next week as well, through Thursday.
05:51Thursday through Friday, high pressure nearby, particularly somewhere towards the northeast of the UK.
05:57That looks the most likely setup.
05:59Now, if this comes off, there are a few things that you would expect.
06:01Yes, it's going to be drier than average.
06:04There'll be a lot of fine weather around.
06:06And we should start to see our temperatures lifting a little bit because of the direction that the air is coming from.
06:13Remember, around your high pressure, they go in a clockwise direction.
06:16So, we'd be dragging in our air from the near continent.
06:18So, at this time of year, slightly less chilly than when we're dragging it in from the north.
06:23But let's look at the anomaly charts from ECMWF because they back up what I just said.
06:29And these are looking at the week as a whole from Monday, the 29th of September to Monday, the 6th of October.
06:34And the pinks indicating that higher than average pressure is more likely.
06:39So, especially towards the northeast of the UK.
06:41So, the high centered somewhere towards Scandinavia, but across the UK as a whole, it looks like it's going to be higher than average.
06:47And with that, then, no surprise that when you look at the rainfall anomaly or the precipitation anomaly, it looks like it's going to be markedly drier than average as well.
06:55So, through much of next week, it looks like after a bit of a blip through this coming weekend of something wetter for a little while, we are going to see more dry weather to be had.
07:05And then I mentioned those temperatures.
07:06Yes, we've had some chilly nights recently this week.
07:08I mean, with high pressure, calm winds, clear skies, perfect ingredients for temperatures to take a bit of a tumble.
07:15And that's what we've had.
07:16And that's what we're going to continue to have.
07:17Let's take Cardiff, for example, through the rest of this week.
07:20But once we get to the weekend and then into next week, yes, there's a reasonable spread in our box and whisker plots for our minimum temperatures.
07:28But they do look generally closer to average.
07:31Not much above.
07:32Not, in fact, maybe even a little bit below at times, but closer to average than they have been.
07:37If we look at the maximum temperatures, they've been hovering around or a little bit below average and will continue to do so through the end of this week.
07:44And then they lift up because of that change in where our air is coming from with the position of that high.
07:50You would expect our daytime highs to be around or a little bit above average, especially when you get some sunshine.
07:55Now, by night, if you get clear skies, you would still see temperatures dipping.
08:00So it could still be some chilly nights, could be a bit of frost.
08:02But generally, the air is just going to be that little bit warmer, a little bit milder, perhaps, than it is at the moment.
08:09So a bit of rain to come through as we go through Saturday could linger for a little while into Sunday.
08:15Gabrielle's going to have to make its mind up on that one.
08:18But thereafter, more fine weather to come as we go through the end of September.
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