00:00Hello, and welcome to the Met Office 10-day trend. You only have to look at the last 10
00:04days to see how much weather we can experience in the U.K. Ten days ago it was cool and unsettled
00:10and since then we've seen six or seven successive hot days, mainly in the south and southeast
00:16of the country, much cooler further north. But for all areas we're seeing this thundery
00:20breakdown and it's a prolonged thundery breakdown that continues into the weekend and the start
00:25of next week, turning things much cooler gradually by the start of next week. But the
00:32main trend for next week is that low pressure will stick around for most of the week. That
00:38means that the weather will generally be very mixed with certainly some rain for most of
00:44us. Now, let's deal with the thunderstorms first of all because we've seen this plume
00:48of very hot air extend northwards across the country with above average temperatures as
00:53far north as central Scotland, but well above average temperatures for southern parts of
00:58the U.K. Joining that plume of hot air we are also seeing low pressure turn up and the
01:04combination of low pressure and heat is leading to a thundery breakdown and we'll continue
01:09to see those conditions ripe for thunderstorms well into the weekend. One difference by the
01:14time we get to Saturday is that you see the red colours disappearing, it is turning much
01:18cooler and so we lose that heat energy somewhat. So we've still got low pressure nearby but
01:23it relaxes away to the west and high pressure in the north will settle things down only
01:28briefly during Saturday for most of us before the jet stream then starts to get into action
01:34and pushes another low up from the south by Monday. And although it's much cooler, there's
01:40still the risk on Sunday and Monday of some very lively thunderstorms moving up from the
01:46south. So plenty of thunderstorm potential, but potential doesn't necessarily mean everyone's
01:51guaranteed a thunderstorm because they pop up fairly randomly and you can see that on
01:55Thursday afternoon, the main risk area being Wales, central and southern England. You can
01:59see the scattered nature of them as temperatures rise through the day these thunderstorms will
02:04pop up just about anywhere in the south. Further north, Scotland, Northern Ireland, Northern
02:09England largely staying dry, best of any sunshine in the west where it will be quite warm, but
02:14in the east we've got this low cloud creeping and it will be a gloomy kind of day along
02:18these North Sea coasts with a cool breeze as well. But in the south east it's another
02:22hot day, not quite as hot as it has been recently. By Friday, that cloud cover coming in from
02:28the east will cover most of the country and I think it will be a claggy kind of day, lots
02:32of cloud, lots of humidity as well after another uncomfortable night for sleeping and further
02:37thunderstorms developing. I wouldn't take these too literally, there's a chance just
02:41about anywhere across the southern half of the UK for these thunderstorms to develop
02:45during the day. It is much cooler however, with temperatures only in the mid to high
02:50twenties. Further north, a quiet day once more and western Scotland, Northern Ireland
02:55seeing some decent sunny spells, misty in the east once again. Now later Friday, this
03:02low pressure will tend to disappear away, that's the one that's bringing us the current
03:06thunderstorms and there's another low waiting to the south west, but in between high pressure
03:11starts to build into the north and so actually continued fine weather for Scotland, Northern
03:15Ireland and much of Northern England and a quieter day to come further south as well.
03:19But a lot of cloud cover, again misty in the east, some patchy rain and drizzle about,
03:24a few showers possible, but for many it's a break between any thunderstorms, best of
03:30any sunshine south and west. It will continue to feel warm, temperatures still a little
03:35above average except for that North Sea coast where it will be on the cool side. By Sunday,
03:42well that low pressure to the south west then swings back in again, carried by the jet stream
03:46and that extends the thunderstorm risk more widely into mainly southern parts of the country
03:50at first, sunny spells and risk of thunderstorms before slowly transferring that risk further
03:56north by Monday, but still northern and western Scotland, parts of Northern Ireland largely
04:01avoiding them. However this is how things look for the start of next week. The jet stream
04:06diving to the south, we've got low pressure centred over the UK, it's a slow moving area
04:11of low pressure and it looks like it will persist throughout next week. Some uncertainties
04:16by this stage, by Tuesday, Wednesday about exactly what the weather will be like, there's
04:20likely to be outbreaks of rain spiralling around this low pressure, but the thunderstorm
04:24risk will diminish during the middle of next week. The really clear signal is that temperatures
04:31will go down. Now these two graphs show the temperature trends for Glasgow on top and
04:36London on bottom and you can see both of them well above average over the next few days
04:41and then these red boxes here indicating daytime temperatures during the weekend, they head
04:45back down to the red line here and here that shows around average. They're still a little
04:51above the red line through next week, so still a little above average, but not as much as
04:57we're seeing at the moment and the good news for many places I think is that the blue boxes,
05:02the overnight temperatures will also be dropping off a little so it's going to be perhaps a
05:07bit more comfortable. Here's another exciting chart, it shows the most likely high pressure
05:13or low pressure signal for the next two weeks or so. The more red the box, the more likely
05:18on that particular day that we'll see high pressure and the more blue the box, the more
05:22likely we'll see low pressure and this is the latest model run on top there and it
05:27just shows that really clear signal around the middle of next week for low pressure centred
05:31over the UK and that signal continues into the following weekend. Previous model runs
05:36didn't have such a strong signal so there's still some uncertainty about that, particularly
05:41later next week because certain computer models suggest that it may ease off a little bit
05:46as far as the low pressure is concerned, so there's a chance, just a chance there later
05:50next week that it will perhaps be drier, but otherwise generally low pressure through
05:54next week. We start the week with thunderstorms and through the rest of the week I think we'll
05:58see some outbreaks of rain at times interspersed by sunny spells. Of course you can find all
06:05the very latest on the weather during the next few days on the Met Office social media
06:09channels and you can follow any outbreaks of rain or thunderstorms on the Met Office
06:13app. Bye bye.
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