00:00Hello, and welcome to the Met Office forecast for the next 10 days. In the next 10 days,
00:06the broad trends in our weather are reasonably clear. It's likely to be colder than average
00:12and we're likely to have low pressure rather than the high pressure that we started this
00:17week with. Any more detail than that later next week and into the following weekend,
00:22well it's impossible to say at the moment. But those are the broad trends, cold and changeable.
00:28But actually a brief spell of milder weather is likely in the immediate future. You can
00:32see these milder colours rushing into northern Britain, wind strengthening as we start off
00:37Thursday. And as this weather front pushes towards western Scotland, it's going to turn
00:42wet, particularly wet over the hills of western Scotland with rainfall amounts accumulating
00:48through Thursday and into the first part of Friday, 60 to 80 millimetres of rainfall in
00:53the wetter locations, more than 100 plus in any prone wet spots over the higher hills
00:58of western Scotland. Yellow warning enforced because that kind of rainfall can cause localised
01:03flooding and travel disruption. There'll also be outbreaks of rain increasingly for parts
01:08of northern England, north Wales, northern Ireland and especially again over western
01:12hills. Drips and drabs of rain elsewhere but a good rain shadow effect there for eastern
01:16Scotland, largely dry and mostly dry in the south. After any early fog lifts, well the
01:21breeze picks up through the day and it's going to be particularly windy for the north
01:24and the west of Scotland. Coastal gales, 65 mile per hour gusts, a big contrast compared
01:30to the weather of recent days and weeks in the north-west. The wind and rain sweeps south
01:35then and it's a completely different picture for Friday morning in the south of Britain
01:39compared to recent mornings this week. Wind and rain rather than frost and fog. The most
01:44unsettled weather moves along though and by the afternoon blustery showers follow for
01:48most parts of the country but particularly the north and the west. A gusty wind, hail
01:52and thunder and perhaps even some sleet and snow over northern hills because it is turning
01:58a bit colder behind that and the isobars tighten with the winds strengthening through the day
02:04on Friday but once this clears through a brief bump in the isobars for Saturday, a brief
02:10weather window if you've got any outdoor plans on the weekend. Then Saturday morning looks
02:14promising for most parts of the country. It's not going to be particularly sunny, it will
02:18cloud over through the day, that cloud thickening by the afternoon to bring some outbreaks of
02:22rain back into western Scotland, western parts of England, Wales and Northern Ireland, again
02:26especially over the higher ground. But the wettest weather really doesn't arrive until
02:30later on. Feeling chilly in the north but temperatures remaining around the double figures
02:36further south. This is Saturday evening into Saturday night, a spell of wind and rain crossing
02:41the country and then we're back into those blustery showers, most frequent, most prolonged
02:46across northern and western Britain. And temperatures, well, double figures, yes, but it's going
02:52to feel colder in the wind and we're in the single figures there in the north with colder
02:57air arriving towards the end of Sunday and with that wind strengthening as well as pulling
03:03in colder air, well, we'll likely see gales around northern and western and perhaps southwestern
03:08coasts and especially around any of those livelier showers that will continue through
03:13Sunday night. In addition, because of the cold air arriving, you can see the blues there,
03:18I wouldn't be surprised if there's some sleet and snow to lower levels later Sunday into
03:21the north of Scotland. But yeah, that's how it looks on Sunday, this north-westerly chilly
03:28airflow, the jet stream by this stage diving to the south of the UK. And Monday looks like
03:35another showery day generally with cold air close to the north of Scotland, further sleet
03:40and snow showers perhaps, but turning a touch milder later Monday into the southwest. It's
03:46only temporary though because if we look out to the west you can see what's next in line
03:50as far as our weather's concerned. A brief milder spell Monday night into Tuesday before
03:55more blues arrive, another dip in the jet stream for the middle of next week. And if
03:59we turn on the isobars you can see low pressure is responsible for all of this. The isobar's
04:05tight there and that suggests that what we'll see through Monday night and Tuesday is a
04:10spell of wind and rain crossing the country quite quickly before getting out of the way.
04:14And then this is Wednesday's weather, generally these blues, these tighter isobars and showers,
04:20blustery downpours back in for the middle of next week. Now it's quite remarkable that
04:25we're talking about the middle of next week, we're talking about this area of low pressure.
04:29It doesn't even exist yet but we're fairly confident that that's how it will behave through
04:33Monday, Tuesday and into Wednesday. Where it goes from there, well that's where different
04:38computer model simulations say different things and we have to look at a broad range
04:43of simulations because by the middle of next week, well it's a long way away, and they
04:48all start to say slightly different things. Now what the majority of simulations suggest
04:53is that that low will be crossing northern parts of Britain to bring, well, quite frequent
04:58showers into the north and the west during the middle of next week with the jet stream
05:02to the south, colder than average air across the country. And some of those showers, well
05:07they'll be turning wintry and that means a mixture of rain, sleet and snow, especially
05:11over northern hills, perhaps at lower levels in the north, especially later next week as
05:17that low crosses the north of the country and we pull in a bit more of a northerly airflow.
05:22So that's the most likely, that's what the majority of computer model simulations are
05:26suggesting. But because these are showers, well it's likely that they'll be very hit
05:32and miss and it's southern parts of Britain that will mostly miss any showers that come
05:36through, be they rain, sleet, hail or snow. Now a fewer number of computer simulations
05:44give this less likely scenario, that low pressure dipping to the south of the UK, that would
05:49bring more widespread wintry conditions perhaps. Still colder than average, still the jet stream
05:54to the south of the UK. So if you're looking at your weather app, if it goes out beyond
05:58seven days for example, it might be giving one of these computer simulations. But what
06:04we need to do as meteorologists is look at the full range to give us an idea of what
06:08are the more likely and what are the less likely solutions for the end of next week.
06:14So what we can say where the computer simulations are all agreeing is that the jet stream will
06:18tend to be to the south of the UK, it will be colder than average across the country
06:23and that brings with it frost and ice in places overnight. There'll also be showers and these
06:29showers will be wintry in nature, a mixture of rain, sleet, hail and snow. What we can't
06:34do is give you details in terms of exactly what type of weather your particular town
06:40or city will get at the end of next week because it's a long way off and it all depends on
06:44the behaviour of that one area of low pressure. So stay tuned, we will keep you updated on
06:51all the details as we get closer to next week and you can follow those updates on social
06:56media. Bye bye.
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