00:00Hello and welcome to the Met Office 10 day trend. Are you fed up with the rain yet? It's
00:05not been wet everywhere recently, but certainly parts of the UK have already had their October
00:11average rainfall and we're only halfway through the month. It's going to stay unsettled over
00:16the next few days, particularly in those areas where we've seen a lot of rain. But the good
00:20news for those places is that next week promises some drier periods of weather. It's not going
00:26to be completely settled through next week, but longer breaks in between the rain. What's
00:31happening with our weather? Well, at the moment, we've got low pressure firmly in charge and
00:36that low pressure brought in by a powerful and fairly flat jet stream. A jet stream at
00:41the moment behaving like a superhighway, directing these low pressure systems, driving them across
00:46the Atlantic and sending them our way. But if I flip to the start of next week, you can
00:50see a big change in the shape of the jet stream. Rather than a superhighway, it becomes more
00:55like a meandering country lane. And as a result, those low pressure systems will be
01:00slower moving and in between, we'll have longer periods of high pressure instead. But returning
01:08to the current situation, because we've still got plenty more low pressure to come over
01:12the next few days and into the weekend, it's actually this low pressure that moves in and
01:17sticks around. Its main weather fronts are out of the way, but there'll be further weather
01:20fronts wrapped around it, bringing some longer spells of wet weather with them, especially
01:25this feature. Early Thursday, moving across central southern England and then by the afternoon,
01:30it's wet across East Anglia and the southeast. Once that clears out of the way, drier and
01:34brighter in the east, further blustery showers into the west, particularly Wales, western
01:39England seeing quite a number of these showers. And again, overnight Thursday into Friday,
01:43early hours of Friday, you can see some very wet weather, some very windy weather, coastal
01:46gales, a lively night on Friday and then a lively morning rush hour for East Anglia
01:52and the southeast as this wet weather moves through. But again, on Friday, once that clears
01:56out of the way, brightening skies, some sunshine in the east, further showers blown in from
02:01the west to affect western parts of England and Wales. And again, a blustery breeze could
02:06be quite tricky on the roads, especially around south Wales, for example, on Friday. Low pressure
02:12still there through Friday night into Saturday, but you'll see ever so slowly the isopars
02:17start to disappear. The low is filling. The winds start to ease away. That means that
02:22we'll wake up on Saturday in some places, central northern Britain, to some fog patches.
02:27But there'll also be further showers, especially around coastal areas overnight and then by
02:30day just about anywhere could see showers. Now, there's some uncertainty over the extent
02:36of some more prolonged wet weather across northern Britain through Saturday and Sunday.
02:40It looks likely that northern and northeast Scotland will see some persistent rain on
02:45Saturday and then that could drift south for Sunday. It's in this general area where it's
02:50likely to be further unsettled weather with outbreaks of prolonged rain at times, perhaps,
02:55and a lot of cloud cover. Elsewhere, it's more scattered showers, particularly across
03:00western coasts of England and Wales. A decent area of shelter here, mainly dry for East
03:06Anglia, but also a small part of western Scotland seeing some dry weather. And it's
03:11actually this that will become the trend into the start of next week. Drier weather coming
03:16in from the northwest, not just the northwest, actually, all the way from North America.
03:21This is Wednesday, so this is the time of recording. Jet stream flat and active across
03:25the Atlantic. But over North America, a big bump there starts to develop and that ripples
03:29downstream, heading up towards Greenland by Saturday and then into Sunday. You can see
03:34that bump starts to topple in from the northwest over the UK. What does that mean? Well, essentially,
03:40within that bump here is an area of high pressure. And with that high pressure coming in from
03:45the northwest, it's going to start to settle things down. It's going to move that low pressure
03:50away and reduce the showers for the start of next week. So, showers easing early next
03:57week. Monday, Tuesday, most places becoming dry. There could be some lingering of showers
04:02across southern areas before the high pressure moves in. But, of course, with dry weather
04:06at this time of year, with clear skies by night, there's always the potential for some
04:10dense fog to form. And that will take some time to clear during the mornings. Now, with
04:16the high pressure moving in for next week, a good chance of more settled, prolonged dry
04:20weather for the early part of next week. But then the jet stream becomes a bit more flat
04:24again, a bit more active, helps to send this low pressure across northern Britain for the
04:28middle of next week. And we've got quite high confidence that we'll see some unsettled
04:33weather returning Wednesday, Thursday next week, especially in northern Britain. But
04:38further south, where we've had a lot of wet weather recently, perhaps not so much rain.
04:42However, we have got low pressure around the Iberian Peninsula, and that's worth keeping
04:46an eye on, because it's indicative of a jet stream that's still in a bit of a mess. It's
04:50still quite meandering in our atmosphere. And that causes some uncertainty for the end
04:55of next week, because, of course, when the jet stream is a bit more like a country lane,
05:00it's more difficult to predict the direction and the speed of its low pressure systems
05:06that are travelling along it. So for the end of next week, there are a few scenarios, but
05:11there's a lot of uncertainty by the time we get to Friday, Saturday. This low moves away,
05:15and then it's possible that we'll get a cold wind for a time. It's also possible that this
05:20area of high pressure will move in and bring more widely settled weather with frost and
05:25fog and that sort of thing, but bright days. There's also a possibility that we'll have
05:30low pressure returning, but sticking around for some time. So there's a few possibilities,
05:37but what looks unlikely is that the jet will be a straight line bringing low after low
05:41after low. It looks more likely that the weather will be including more prolonged dry weather
05:47next week, a break in the rain, much needed for southern parts of Britain, especially,
05:52and also some fog around by night and by morning. So this is a trend. It gets more uncertain
05:58to next week, but you can keep up to date with the very latest forecast day by day by
06:03following the Met Office on social media. Bye bye.
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