00:00 Welcome to your week ahead forecast for the last full week of meteorological summer.
00:05 To start the week at least the weather's fairly straightforward.
00:09 A fairly typical situation with high pressure dominating across the south and low pressure further north.
00:14 The low is pushing away that area of high pressure, quite a few isobars around it as well.
00:18 So quite a blustery start to Tuesday with the low generating quite a lot of clouds and also some showery outbreaks of rain.
00:26 A wet start across northern England, North Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.
00:30 We'll see the rain breaking up and just turning into a few scattered showers by the afternoon.
00:35 So the weather will turn a bit brighter, the winds will ease, feeling a bit warmer by the afternoon.
00:40 But the highest temperatures will be across the south where after any early morning mist and fog clears away,
00:45 we should see some lengthy spells of sunshine and temperatures in the southeast, east Anglia,
00:49 getting up to the mid-20s, 27 Celsius is possible.
00:53 A cooler day further north with more clouds and a fairly brisk breeze.
00:57 Temperatures closer to average high teens, low 20s here.
01:01 Now by the time we get to Wednesday, it's still the same situation, but that low is tending to ease away.
01:07 There are a couple of weather fronts to keep an eye on, one tracking up from the southwest,
01:11 that's likely to generate a bit more cloud and maybe one or two scattered showers over Wales,
01:16 perhaps the Midlands and later on maybe into Northern Ireland.
01:19 We'll see a few more showers return on Wednesday to the northwest of Scotland as well,
01:24 perhaps even one or two heavy ones.
01:25 But for a good chunk of the country, certainly across much of the eastern side,
01:29 it'll be a dry day in many places.
01:31 We'll see some sunshine, particularly in the south with the warm air still in place.
01:34 Temperatures getting up to again the mid, maybe even high 20s in one or two locations,
01:39 whereas we're closer again to 19 or 20 Celsius further north.
01:43 Things get complicated after Wednesday and there's increasing amount of uncertainty after that as well.
01:50 What could happen is this area of high pressure that's been dominating the south starts to pull away
01:54 and it's replaced by an area of low pressure coming up from the south.
01:58 Now, this is also likely to be tapping into some pretty warm air across the continent.
02:03 The combination of low pressure and warm air could spark some heavy and thundery showers.
02:08 But this is only what's called an outlier at the moment.
02:12 This is not likely to happen. It's not the most likely scenario.
02:17 If you look at other computer models, the European one, for example,
02:20 it's generating some warmth across the south during Thursday,
02:24 but it keeps the low pressure to the north as the dominant feature.
02:28 And that's warmer air, although briefly pushing northwards tends to get pushed away by the time we get to Friday.
02:34 Compare that to the Met Office model that does generate this low to the south,
02:39 tapping into warmer air across the far south during Thursday,
02:44 pushing northwards and generating potentially some quite heavy downpours
02:48 that could still be around in this warmer air across eastern areas on Friday.
02:53 But as I said, this is the least likely scenario at this stage.
02:57 And we know that because we don't just look at one or two computer model runs.
03:01 We run the many, many times and they generate lots of different scenarios.
03:05 And this is the European what we call postage stamps when the model is run 50 times.
03:10 There aren't any of these that are generating the similar scenario that the Met Office computer model is generating.
03:17 If we look closer on, there are some that have some warmer air in place, but they don't have that same setup.
03:22 And the American computer model is very similar as well,
03:26 with none of these scenarios generating something similar to the Met Office model.
03:31 That's why we think the Met Office model at the moment is a bit of an outlier and is not likely to happen.
03:37 It could happen, of course, and things will become clearer over the next day or so.
03:40 But at the moment, the most likely scenario for the end of the week is that we keep the cooler air in place
03:45 with a mixture of sunny spells and showers.
03:48 Now, as we go towards the weekend, of course, which is a bank holiday for many, but not in Scotland.
03:54 We will, of course, continue to keep you updated as things progress over the next few days.
03:59 You can, of course, keep up to date yourself by making sure you're following the Met Office right across social media.
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