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00:09Good morning. Welcome to the Myers Report Fast 15. It is Friday, February 20th, 2026.
00:17Just breaking in this morning, or breaking out this morning, the U.S. Supreme Court just shut
00:22down President Trump's capacity to issue emergency tariffs. However, the President already has
00:29workarounds, and we can expect that more court battles are coming. We will cover the tariff
00:36issue and or their lack of and their implications next week when we have a chance to see how the
00:43markets are going to react. So far, the markets seem to be reacting very positively. Our forecast
00:49this week is that a settlement is coming with the Russia-Ukraine war. Look for the Grand Masonic
00:57Lodges of Russia and Ukraine to be officially shaking hands in Serbia this June as a sign of
01:04faith and progress. This is one of several signs that this horrific war is going to be over. It
01:13needs to be done. With us today, as usual, Don Day, our ever-dependable climate and weatherman.
01:20Back this week from a week of traveling is Isaac Issa, our teller of logistics and trucker tales,
01:29and our favorite Dr. Robert Janetsky, our chief economist. Because Bob does not like what Don
01:39predicts, Bob is heading back, because he does like what Don predicts, he's heading back to Mexico
01:45to get away from the cold weather that might be heading our way. Don, there was a terrible avalanche
01:51tragedy at Lake Tahoe this weekend with eight people killed. What caused the avalanche?
01:58Avalanches, especially in California, are the result of two things. One, obviously a lot of snow,
02:05but number two is when you have a period of no snow and warm, dry weather, what ends up happening
02:12is the
02:13snow forms a crust. And that crust just becomes this hard surface. And then when you get a lot of
02:21new snow on top of it, the Sierra Nevada in the last week has picked up in places 10 feet
02:29of snow.
02:29So when you add that amount of snow to a slick surface, and then you put it on a mountain
02:35slope,
02:36and there's something called the angle of repose, which means that any slope that's 30 degrees
02:41or more is inherently unstable. So you pile up a lot of snow on a slick surface, and you have
02:48these
02:48huge avalanches of huge amounts of snow that'll come down with no warning. And a very tragic
02:55situation that happened here this week, making it the second deadliest avalanche in the United
03:04States, and the worst in California. And so it was a very tragic and bad situation. Unfortunately,
03:11there was plenty of warning that this situation was going to happen.
03:18There was plenty of warning, and nobody did anything about it?
03:20Well, from what I've been able to gather, the folks who were caught in it were on a multiple-day
03:27back country trip, and they started their trip before the snow hit. But it was well-forecasted,
03:36and there were avalanche warnings in place. We don't know if the guides or the people responsible
03:42were staying abreast of the situation or thought it wasn't going to be a risk. But obviously,
03:48in post-analysis, they're likely going to find out there were some mistakes made.
03:57Wow. Don, how is the weather looking in Europe, and particularly in Iran, where military forces
04:03are gathering?
04:04Well, speaking of Europe, before I get to Iran, they've had a deadly week of avalanches. For
04:10anybody who's been watching the Olympics, you've seen the snow coming back into Italy. We've had
04:14several avalanches in Italy, one along the French-Swiss border, which was deadly. So there's snow in them hills.
04:23You might drop the slide, Don.
04:25Okay. So Iran. Let's go to Iran. The weather in Iran for the next week is quiet. What I'm showing
04:32you
04:33here is a precipitation map, mainly up into the northern part of the country will there be some
04:38weather. But the rest of Iran is going to be basically under high pressure. So weather is not
04:45a big factor, as it looks right now, in that area of the world.
04:51So this is good weather, if you're thinking about military actions, what you're saying.
04:56It is certainly looking that way.
04:57Well, for the past several weeks, you had forecast that the weather was not good for military actions,
05:03and now it's changing, which you also forecast. You correctly forecast the surging natural gas prices.
05:11When will the relief be here?
05:13Well, we've already seen it. I'll show up a chart here that shows that natural gas prices
05:22have already come back down.
05:24Bob, there you go.
05:26And so what I'm showing you here is going back to March 21. So on the right side here,
05:31our natural gas prices this winter hit levels that we hadn't seen since back in 2021 and 2022.
05:37So it's been a while. But you see that sharp drop in prices here recently? That's because of the
05:44recent trends of warmer temperatures. And while there's still cold coming for the rest of February
05:49into early March, nobody's really seen prolonged cold. So I think the relief in the drop in natural
05:55gas prices is here to stay.
05:58Okay, so we're not going to see any more surges. And so this will impact, obviously,
06:03have a positive impact on inflation, because particularly relatively, inflation is going
06:08to go down in the next couple of months.
06:11Yeah, so the weather will help.
06:13Okay, Isaac, is freight activity increasing this week or remaining the same?
06:21You know, spot rates are up. Spot rates are way up. We're seeing about 30% year-over-year
06:26increases in most lanes across the nation. And it's not noise. It's real movement that we think is
06:33going to be able to sustain here for the upcoming, I'd say, the remainder of the year, at least.
06:37What about freight volumes?
06:40Freight volumes are, yeah, they're relatively flat. Yeah, this is definitely a capacity attrition
06:45issue here. That's causing some of the, I'd say, beneficial impacts that we're seeing right
06:53now in rates.
06:55So basically, the rates are being impacted by attrition from the drivers, I guess, dropping
07:03out from higher regulations, as well as illegal aliens getting CDLs being eliminated?
07:09Yeah, that's correct. And when spot rates move like that, Gary, contract rates don't stay
07:13insulated for too long. It's putting real pressure on contract rates here to adjust up.
07:18Most shippers are at the tail end of their bid season, and a lot of contracts were priced
07:24before the full strength of the spot market rebound showed up. This is going to create a
07:30real big disconnect between spot and contract rates in four shippers to increase contract
07:36rates here in the upcoming, I'd say weeks, I'd say months, if not weeks, if not days. The emails
07:42that we've been getting over the last couple of days, now mind you, you know, it tightened up
07:46in a really big way. When we first entered 2026, we knew capacity was down. But a lot of people
07:53thought it was just, you know, that cold weather streak that we had and thought, you know, things
07:57would normalize. But the tightness is definitely continuing. And many people in the industry are
08:02calling for a ban year 2026. Mind you, that's without any type of uptick in demand. If we have
08:10any type of, you know, significant uptick, call it three, four, north of 5%, I think we're going to go
08:16back to a COVID-like super cycle. That's what I think we're seeing here in the next 12 to 24
08:22months.
08:22So that will impact inflation. So what I hear you saying is, the recent fuel price spikes that we've
08:30seen from the weather is not going to, when the prices go lower, freight rates are not going to
08:38follow suit at all, is what you're saying. That is, it's only, yes, I only predict freight
08:43rates to continue to only go north. Yeah, diesel, diesel dropping, diesel can go to a dollar right
08:50now. Freight rates will only rise. And on the inflation piece, again, more, more for, you know,
08:56the people that know the economics a little bit better, Bob, you guys, but we, our industry has
09:01been a four year long freight recession. So our rates, I want to say I reported this a couple weeks
09:13did adjust for inflation over the last four years. So we're kind of just readjusting to where we
09:19should have been. And as you know, I've been reporting it over the last four years now during
09:22this freight recession, many carriers have gone out of business. So, you know, you're going to have
09:27rates normalize, right, which is happening as we speak in a really, really big way. And then you get
09:32the things that come out. And then you're going to have carriers coming out price gouging here in the
09:36next, I'd say 60 days. So what you would, I also take it that this means with between carriers,
09:44failing, and increased regulations. This is a driver's market.
09:50Oh, absolutely. It is an, it is absolutely a driver's market. And I think it's going to stay,
09:56I think it's going to stay that way. I think it'll sustain a driver's market, I would say,
10:00at least into the end of 2027. Now, mind you, we get it. If we get some real good uptick
10:06here in the
10:06economy and demand starts spiking, we can see this uptick lasting for, I'd say for a few
10:13maybe even several years, but I'm being extremely optimistic here. Bob Janetsky,
10:20Dr. Bob, with all the crazy news.
10:22Dr. Bob Janetsky, Ph.D.: I'm sorry?
10:24Dr. Bob Janetsky, Ph.D.: Also optimistic. However, we've gotten some, we've just received some
10:30numbers that are really way out of left field. Just this morning, there were fourth quarter numbers
10:37for GDP showing the economy slowed to maybe a 1% annual rate, very slow in terms of real growth,
10:45and maybe a 4% annual rate in terms of total spending, and 4% in terms of inflation. I
10:53mean,
10:53just very strange numbers, because a lot of other data are showing that things are actually picking
10:59up. So what we have is we have a lot of confusion in the numbers and a lot of conflicting
11:05data.
11:06This occurs at a time when you have major changes occurring in the economy, because all we're doing
11:12is we're taking samples. You can't take all the information from a $32 trillion economy or $31
11:19trillion economy. So you have to take samples of data. And companies that are taking these samples and
11:26the government that are taking these samples are taking limited pieces of the economy. And when
11:32you have major changes occurring, some in some areas that are very positive, some in other areas
11:37that are very negative, the results that you're going to get are going to be in conflict, because
11:42it depends on whether you've got the areas that are improving or deteriorating that you're focusing
11:48on your numbers with. So I think that the numbers are going to be confusing for a while.
11:54With Isaac's comments about higher inflation in the trucking industry, that will offset some of the
12:01benefit of maybe lower inflation from weather related factors. So right now we're seeing some figures
12:09that suggest inflation is high. And unfortunately, growth is a lot lower than we had anticipated.
12:17I wouldn't take the numbers too much to heart, because I believe there is this volatility that occurs
12:25when you have a transition. My sense is still to believe that all the positive factors we've seen
12:32are going to lead to more rapid growth. And there are some figures that justify that. But unfortunately,
12:39we're not seeing the effects of that just at the moment. Wow. Okay, the Fed seems to be maintaining a
12:49stable money supply. Yet interest rates were falling a bit with the 30-year fixed rate mortgage at about 6
12:59.01%,
13:00according to Freddie Mac, and the 15-year down to about 5.4%. This is good news for housing.
13:11And the 10-year Treasury dropped a little bit. What can we expect going forward?
13:19And I hate to ask you this, because there was no warning. What the hell? Do you have any concept
13:28as to
13:29what the lifting of the tariffs is going to do? That could be counter-inflationary, no?
13:34Actually, I think the lifting of the tariffs is going to be a positive move. I had projected that the
13:42Supreme Court would declare the tariffs unconstitutional, at least with respect to the
13:48major aspects of them. Yes, the President might have. And again, we will go into this next week
13:54when we have a chance to see what the Supreme Court actually said. But I believe the thrust of it
14:00is that
14:00the President should not have this vast power to increase taxes wherever and however they wanted to.
14:09Because, Gary, what would happen if all of a sudden the President said that because of global warming,
14:14they wanted to punish all countries that were not complying with the U.S. desires to fight global
14:21warming? He shouldn't have that power. That power rests with Congress wisely, according to the
14:27Constitution. And I believe that's the way it should stay. But that's a different issue. In terms of what's
14:33happening to our economy right now, I think if the tariffs are illegal and if we start to become more
14:42of a free trade country, that a lot of the inputs that people are using in businesses, which have
14:48suffered because of these tariffs, inputs of raw materials, all of a sudden prices up 10%, 15% from
14:56what competitors are facing in the rest of the world, that makes it a very difficult thing for an awful
15:02lot
15:02of businesses. And it disrupts the economy when you never know whether these things are going to
15:07last or not. So I believe that the Supreme Court was very wise in a constitutional way. And I know
15:14it's
15:14a blow to President Trump, who loves these tariffs, but I think it's the right thing to do. And I
15:19think
15:20the U.S. will be better off for it. Interestingly, the first response in the market, as you indicated
15:25earlier, was positive. And I think it's positive. It also shows that we're a country of law, that
15:34there are limits to presidential power. And while certain presidents are not going to like that,
15:40nonetheless, I think it's the right thing. Well, I think the idea that we are a country
15:45by rule of law is one of the things that's going to bring additional foreign investment coming into the
15:51country. One of the questions, it's been said that wars create strong economies, yet you and I both
16:02see that if peace breaks out between Russia and Ukraine, this could be a very beneficial thing for
16:09our economy. So some people ask, can you explain this, please? Really misguided. World War II,
16:18you can see our GDP going up like gangbusters during the war. But wars are destructive. The
16:25fact that you somehow calculate that by building more machines and more ships and more planes and
16:31more bombs, that you somehow have created something. Well, you've perhaps created a situation where you
16:38can allow your civilization to continue to survive. But all that spending is destructive in economic
16:46terms. You produce all that to destroy things. That is not true prosperity. True prosperity comes
16:53after the war, when you have peace, and then you can start rebuilding and creating things instead
16:59of destroying things. So you don't just look at what the GDP says. In war, it says things are going
17:06great. They aren't. They're going awful. It's at the peacetime that you start to get prosperity.
17:12After World War II, there were a lot of forecasts of depression because all of a sudden we're not
17:17going to be creating all these planes and ships and what. And what did we have? We had massive
17:22prosperity as we rebuilt the country. And the world. And that's what will happen after the end of the
17:28Ukraine war. Okay. With all that being said, Don, Don Day, are you optimistic or pessimistic about the
17:36future of the economy and the country and the weather? I'm always optimistic about the weather.
17:43But no, I remain positive. I really, really am hoping that some of these international issues
17:50will go in the right direction, both Ukraine and Iran.
17:55Isaac, and you?
17:57You know, Gary, I've been doing this for 15 years in logistics and the different cycles,
18:01the ups and the downs. And I'll tell you one thing. Over the last four years of the
18:05worst freight recession in trucking history, you know, they say when it rains, it pours.
18:10We've had floods around here almost every single day here. Okay. All right. Okay. But you know what?
18:15I can see it. The sun's coming out in this industry. All right. When we're in an up cycle,
18:22that sun starts to beam in your eyes and I'm ready for it. No sunglasses. I'm ready for it.
18:28Okay. And Bob, are you optimistic or pessimistic?
18:31Oh, with the Supreme Court's decision, I'm more optimistic than ever. I know it's a disappointment
18:37to those who want to see all these revenues from tariffs. But I believe that if there's any way of
18:42countering the vast power that the president has taken, which I don't believe he has under the
18:47Constitution, that we are a country of law, which is more important than a lot of other things.
18:53And so I am even more optimistic than I have been. I also am optimistic. And I think that the
19:02hold
19:03back of the president's tariff abilities is not so bad because it wasn't really about money. This was
19:13about creating peace and putting on geopolitical pressures to get the bad actors to behave nicely.
19:19And I think he's got almost all of that done already. We'll see if we can get Russia and Ukraine
19:27settled. And if we can get a regime change in Iran, which this may be one of our last chances
19:34to get
19:34that done with relative peaceful, in a peaceful fashion. So I am optimistic in general. And with that,
19:44I'd like to say, guys, thank you very much. Be well, stay safe, have a good weekend, and God bless
19:50America.
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