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00:00Our estimate of what happens next year is we're going to have a booming positive year for the economy and the inflation rate is going to be down.
00:17Welcome to the Myers Report, Fast 15. It is Friday, December 12th, 2025.
00:25Venezuela was an issue again this week.
00:28First, the mainstream media and the Democrats have gone surprisingly quiet on criticizing the second strike on that Venezuelan drug boat.
00:38That's because they were briefed by Admiral Frank McBradley.
00:42He is the commander of the U.S. Special Operations Command.
00:46I believe they're out of Tampa.
00:48Admiral Bradley explained the critical issues and the clear and present dangers to our country in terms that the Democrats and the mainstream media appeared to understand.
01:00Accordingly, their criticism here went silent.
01:02Next, the U.S. took a Venezuelan oil tanker with 2 million barrels of oil.
01:09The tanker was unflagged, which means technically it was a ship without a country.
01:15Second, the oil was sanctioned and was headed for Cuba, with the profits headed to terror cells in the United States and elsewhere.
01:22While drugs and the cartel terrorism in the U.S. are the most visible focus of U.S. policy for Venezuela and South America,
01:32the rest of President Trump's plan will focus on increasing a positive U.S. economic involvement in South America, including Venezuela.
01:41This will include reducing or eliminating Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere.
01:48If you want to hearken that back to the Monroe Doctrine, you can, but don't expect the Monroe Doctrine to be a term that's used,
01:55because that also brings up some unpleasant memories for our friends down South.
02:00As for President Maduro, our team forecast two scenarios.
02:04One is that he voluntarily leaves and gets asylum in another country, possibly Cuba.
02:10The second is that he stays and becomes a compliant partner of the U.S.
02:15Our one forecast is clear.
02:17Despite the U.S. military buildup in the region, there will be no massive invasion by the U.S. into Venezuela.
02:26But also, there will be no Venezuelan invasion of Guyana and its rich oil fields.
02:32We do see the possibility of U.S. military action in Venezuela,
02:36but it will be limited to remote surgical strikes against the cartels.
02:41Don, I hate to say it, you were right again.
02:45We got your forecast for cold and snow this week.
02:49Out here, we had about 14 inches.
02:51Is there any break in sight?
02:53There is a break, but not until we get past this weekend and into early next week.
02:58We're going to have record temperatures in the upper Midwest this weekend,
03:01sub-zero temperatures, a bit more in the way of snow for the northern plains,
03:06through the Great Lakes, and we'll get it up into New England as well.
03:09But there is a break.
03:11It's going to develop mid to late next week.
03:13There's a Christmas thaw coming late next week into Christmas week.
03:21We're going to see kind of a pause.
03:24And this is typical in a winter season because when you get these Arctic outbreaks,
03:27they come in surges.
03:29And when you release Arctic air, it has to recharge.
03:33It has to build up again.
03:35And this salvo of Arctic air is quite impressive.
03:38It was minus 60 in parts of the Yukon this week.
03:40Now, you might say, well, that's the Yukon.
03:44It's supposed to be cold.
03:46Well, that's 40 degrees colder than it normally is in the Yukon in December.
03:51So that's remarkably cold air.
03:54It won't be 60 below in the U.S., thankfully.
03:57But if you're east of the Mississippi, it's going to be a very cold weekend,
04:02and the next week will be off to very cold.
04:04But then a thaw that probably, I think, will extend into New Year's week
04:09before the next outbreak of cold comes.
04:11So when you say we're going to have a thaw, how warm will it be or not be?
04:16Well, it's going to at least warm up to near-average temperatures.
04:19But you just mentioned 14 inches of snow and getting a little more snow on the ground.
04:24That retards the warm-up.
04:27So, yes, it gets warmer, but that snow cover will throttle back.
04:31It would be a lot warmer if we didn't have snow on the ground.
04:35So, you know, getting into the 30s and 40s, a really good possibility.
04:39Maybe a bit warmer than that on some days.
04:42Okay.
04:42Anything dramatic on the horizon weather-wise?
04:44No, not dramatic.
04:48You know, we're just now at the beginning to the winter season.
04:52I know it seems like we're in the middle of it.
04:53But there's a lot that we'll be watching into January and February for sure,
04:59especially when it comes to some of these Arctic outbreaks maybe getting further,
05:03deeper into the south, which could move the energy markets.
05:06That'll be something we'll watch.
05:08What is your next science or balloon event?
05:10Coming up this summer, the Air Force balloon program has been re-upped
05:17in response to the Chinese balloon program.
05:20So, the U.S. is going to be getting back into high-altitude ballooning.
05:25Are we sending them over to China?
05:28I can't hear you.
05:30Are we sending them over to China?
05:32I can't.
05:34I got it.
05:35I got it.
05:36I got it.
05:36I was a little thick.
05:37Don, I'm looking forward to this warm front on Christmas,
05:41but is it safe to say now that we will not be expecting a white Christmas?
05:45Well, if you have a white Christmas, it's probably because of snow on the ground.
05:49Oh, okay.
05:50Snow falling on Christmas is not likely right now.
05:54Isaac, how are overall trucking volumes trending across the key markets today?
06:01They're coming back ever so slowly, slightly.
06:04We're up about 2% month over month here in Chicago.
06:09L.A.'s posting about 3% to 4% gains over last month.
06:13So, things are slowly coming back, but the demand simply isn't there.
06:20So, demand is still overall soft, but we definitely have a capacity tightening that's affecting the industry right now.
06:29But overall demand, slowly coming back, but still not there, Gary.
06:32So, it seems like this may be an indication of an economy that could be slowly coming back.
06:39Correct.
06:40Okay.
06:41Have you seen any signs of capacity tightening since the executive order requiring English proficiency for CDL holders?
06:50Yeah, absolutely.
06:52Yeah, in the last 30 days, the tender rejection rate, which is what measures what contract carriers are accepting versus rejecting from their customers, has gone up to 8%.
07:05Anything below 5% indicates too much capacity.
07:10Anything under 5% too much capacity, anything over 5% shows a constriction of capacity.
07:17We're at 8%.
07:18We haven't seen numbers like this back in since 2022.
07:22To give you kind of more of a reference point, during COVID, rejection rates hit 25% at their peak.
07:29We haven't seen that in all of trucking history, but we're slowly, well, I wouldn't even say slowly, we're making big leaps to getting a lot of this capacity out of the system, finally.
07:40So, that means the edicts are working in terms of narrowing out the competition.
07:46Oh, absolutely.
07:47And I'd say, Bob, in the last 45 days, from everything, you know, FreightWaves is one of the biggest media outlets for transportation.
07:54You know, what they've been reporting in terms of trucking companies closing down, and as of recently, Ten Roads, which is a large carrier in Chicago, they're nationwide.
08:03They do a lot of post office work, shut down it, and they had 2,600 drivers.
08:07So, we're seeing good companies go out of business, which is unfortunate, and capacity bleeding, but most importantly, we're seeing a lot of these bad actor companies, right?
08:18The non-domiciled guys, the guys who are exploiting the immigrants that are coming over here, the importing of truck drivers, and the double logbooks.
08:27These guys are getting spooked.
08:28You know, they're paying attention to the headlines, finally, and what they're reporting is not as many drivers are joining their companies out of fear, and they're reporting a lot of people quitting their companies out of fear.
08:40They simply don't want to go through the process of getting pulled over in a scale house and being detained right now.
08:48Isaac, how's the current weather affecting revenue and operations?
08:52Usually.
08:53Yeah, usually.
08:54Now, like I said, demand is up a little bit, but we are busier than holy heck right now.
08:59A lot of carriers in Chicago are busy because of the weather impacting capacity, and coupled with everything else that we just finished discussing about the English proficiency,
09:10and the non-domiciled truck drivers, all this is coming to a head.
09:14So these are early signs of what this industry will look like here in 2026 from a capacity to demand standpoint, even if we don't have a pop in demand.
09:25There's a tremendous amount of optimism right now for good companies operating the right way.
09:31There's a tremendous amount of fear right now for bad actors who have explored the system over the last five years
09:37and know that they're either going to have to get out or switch to a more legal business model.
09:44Thank you, Isaac.
09:46Bob, Dr. Bob, three weeks ago, the stock market took a hit, and you said it would be back quickly.
09:54Yesterday, the S&P closed just 18 points below its all-time high.
09:58Why is this happening?
10:00I have no idea.
10:01No, short-term, week-to-week, I don't think there's really, unless there's some news one way or the other.
10:12And there really hasn't been a whole lot of news one way or the other.
10:15And actually, when you look at the stock market, even though we're very close to all-time highs,
10:20we're no higher than we were at the peak.
10:23And it's kind of leveled off for the past two, three months.
10:27So I would not expect that to change between now and the end of the year.
10:32I know you always like short-term forecasts.
10:35But we do like long-term forecasts, too.
10:38You like accurate forecasts.
10:40That's what you want.
10:42I don't see, especially during the holidays, without some major news developments,
10:48I think we're just going to kind of linger about where we are right now.
10:52The real question is, what happens next year?
10:55And our estimate of what happens next year is we're going to have a booming, positive year for the economy.
11:03And the inflation rate is going to be down.
11:05And if that's the case, the stock market, even though it's very high today,
11:10probably overvalued by many measures, can still go higher.
11:15Do you think we'll hit $50,000 in the Dow next year?
11:18You know, I don't even look at the Dow.
11:22It's only 30 companies, and it's so sensitive and such a bad index.
11:27I really don't pay a whole lot of attention to it.
11:30So I wouldn't put a number on it.
11:32What about the S&P?
11:33S&P 500?
11:34I think we're going to be struggling to get up, you know, maybe 5% to 10% at the most.
11:41I think we've already incorporated in the market an awful lot of positive news.
11:48And I think it's one thing to incorporate the positive news.
11:51It's another thing to see it really happen.
11:54And that's what we haven't seen just yet.
11:56We haven't seen this real spurge in economic activity.
12:00We've seen huge profit gains.
12:02And that should increase investment.
12:05All the things that Trump has done, I think, are really very positive.
12:10So I think we're going to see a wonderful year ahead.
12:13And we're all going to enjoy the economic numbers, both on inflation and on real growth.
12:20Bob, the Fed dropped their target rate by a quarter of a percent.
12:23Are they going to do it again?
12:24And if so, how quickly?
12:26Well, I don't think they're going to do it again quickly.
12:29They've talked about maybe another quarter percent by the end of next year.
12:33And one of the reasons for that is you have to be very careful in dropping those short-term rates.
12:38Because when you drop short-term rates, especially what the Fed is doing now,
12:43they're purchasing securities, which is something they haven't done for a long time.
12:47When you purchase securities, you're putting more money into the economy.
12:51And there's a concern that if you're putting more money into the economy,
12:55you can actually send the inflation higher.
12:58Interestingly enough, the last two times,
13:01both this past week when the Fed cut rates and back in September when the Fed cut rates,
13:07long-term interest rates went up.
13:10Now, they went up because financial markets became more concerned that inflation could go higher.
13:17So we've had the same thing happen.
13:19If you look at my chart in my weekly,
13:21we've had the same thing happen in the past couple of days
13:24that happened back last September.
13:26And that is financial markets are nervous that the Fed is not paying close enough attention to inflation.
13:34And so I don't think the Fed is going to be cutting rates again for quite a while.
13:39I would say at least through the first half of next year,
13:42without significant evidence that inflation is coming down.
13:47And right now, we haven't seen that evidence yet.
13:49Bob, those rate increases were barely noticeable.
13:54I mean, they were, I guess, a few hundredths of a percent.
13:57And that's exactly what happened last September.
13:59But it's in the wrong direction.
14:01And it's an indication that financial markets are nervous.
14:05Now, they were nervous the last time because the Fed cut rates.
14:08And they said, uh-oh, we may get more inflation.
14:11This time, the Fed not only cut rates, but it's buying securities, which puts more money in the system.
14:18And you or I might say, and I would say,
14:21I don't think this is going to raise inflation in the future.
14:24But financial markets are nervous about it.
14:27So long as financial markets are nervous,
14:29long-term interest rates will stay higher than we would like to see.
14:33But in the meantime, one of the key drivers of inflation,
14:36energy costs, particularly oil, is way, way down this past year.
14:41It's way, way down.
14:42But the year-over-year inflation rates are still somewhere in the vicinity of 2.5% to 3.5%.
14:49So long as it's up in that vicinity,
14:53the financial markets are going to be concerned about increasing the money supply
14:58and pushing more money into the system.
15:00And that's what we see.
15:01We just have to take it as a fact that's accomplished,
15:06that the financial markets are nervous and are keeping an eye on the Fed.
15:10And actually, that's a good thing,
15:12because the financial markets should but watch the Fed.
15:15They've made a lot of mistakes in the past.
15:17We don't want them to make another mistake this time around.
15:20Don, are you optimistic about the future?
15:23It's our weekly question.
15:25Has your optimism changed?
15:26Yes, especially after listening to Bob and knowing my portfolio in 2026 is in good shape.
15:33Wonderful.
15:34Isaac, what about you?
15:36Very optimistic, Gary.
15:37The future will be bright.
15:40Robert?
15:41Of course I'm optimistic.
15:43I, you know, I continue to think that things are going to be great in the future,
15:47and we'll just have to wait and see how that turns out.
15:51I am in concurrence with you guys.
15:53I see good things happening.
15:55I think they're going to be a little tricky at times.
15:58We'll go over those with our forecast later.
16:00But I think on balance, economically and geopolitically, the U.S. is going to be just fine.
16:06We do have to watch out for the grief that's going on in the U.K.
16:11and in some countries, other countries in Europe,
16:14as it pertains to their civil rights, civil liberties,
16:19which is getting pretty hairy over there.
16:21Be that as it may, I think it looks good for the U.S.
16:24I want to say thank you, guys.
16:27Have a good weekend.
16:28Stay safe, and God bless America.
16:54I want to say thank you, guys.
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