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00:00I do think we've got some winter concerns with transportation coming up, especially as we get into November, December, and January. I think we'll have a lot of winter weather, but so far, so good.
00:20Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Myers Report Fast 15. It is Friday, September 26, 2025.
00:27Don Day, all good things have to come to an end. There seems to be a pickup in hurricane activity. What's happening?
00:37Yeah, there certainly is. What we're seeing is finally the Atlantic is showing signs of awakening.
00:45What I'm showing you here is from the National Hurricane Center. We've got Humberto, which is going to be a major hurricane there.
00:53The good news is that is likely going to curve out and stay over the open water, be what we call a fish mixer up into the central Atlantic, kind of the same path that Aaron did.
01:04But you see that X and that red shading there?
01:07Yeah, what is that?
01:08That's going to be a tropical storm. And it is really taking aim on the southeast coast of the United States.
01:15And I'm not so much concerned about Humberto, as I told you right there.
01:20That's the track of the major hurricane that's further east.
01:23But as we look at the potential for the Carolinas here, look at that rain.
01:28We could see some very heavy rain with that tropical wave going to north and south Carolina.
01:34And remember, it was just a little more over a year ago when that part of the country was hit with all the flooding.
01:40Now, this does not look to be of the magnitude of what we saw last year.
01:46But this is something that we've got to watch here over the next week is some heavy rains coming into the Carolinas, maybe Georgia, maybe into Virginia.
01:55Well, back then, I guess, last year, that was the sort of the perfect storm that dumped rain on rain on rain?
02:05That was, yeah. Yeah, no, that was Hurricane Helene.
02:09You know, this is likely going to be a tropical storm, not reach full hurricane strength.
02:14But these systems like this, they don't have to be terribly strong, but they could get stuck.
02:19They could stall.
02:21So we need to watch this.
02:24Some of the modeling has over three feet of rain falling just off the coast.
02:29If that were to move inland, then we've got problems.
02:32So, yeah, so the tropics are heating up finally.
02:36How soon will we know if that's going to move inland or not?
02:39Well, I would say we're pretty confident on that graphic that you're seeing right there.
02:46That purple shading area, we probably won't know until Monday or Tuesday if that's going to get further inland or not.
02:52Well, those people have had a rough time.
02:55They still haven't fully recovered.
02:57Let's pray that they don't have to have any more grief.
03:01Can you give us a snapshot of how the weather is for 2025 compared to the last few years or prior years?
03:09Yeah, what I'm showing you here is a map for the temperature pattern across North America since January 1st.
03:17And basically what this represents is where it's been warmer or where it's been colder or where it hasn't been either.
03:24And that's what's remarkable about the year of 2025 so far.
03:27If you look at the lower 48, notice there's very little color.
03:31There's a little bit of color out in the West where temperatures have been a little bit above average.
03:37You see some blue in California.
03:38It's been a bit cooler than average.
03:40But if you wanted to use the word average or near normal for the United States in the year 2025, that's the way it's been this year.
03:49It's been unremarkable in terms of the lack of extremes this year, especially when it comes to the temperature.
03:57You know, we still have October, November, December to go, but it's been a pretty casual year.
04:03How about, so you don't see anything impinging upon food production or transportation coming?
04:10So far this year, no.
04:12I do think we've got some winter concerns with transportation coming up, especially as we get into November, December and January.
04:21I think we'll have a lot of winter weather, but so far so good.
04:25I have a question for Don.
04:27When you say a lot of winter weather, are you just saying the normal winter weather we experience or are we to expect anything more than that, Don?
04:34Well, I would expect at least an average winter in terms of winters that you would expect to have with some frequent periods of cold and snow.
04:41I do think the opportunity for more snow and more cold this winter and more stronger winter storms is higher than the last two years.
04:51So for transportation and for your industry, I think there will be some weather challenges ahead this winter, more than the last couple of years.
05:00Will that be impact?
05:02Obviously, that'll impact people who are driving themselves.
05:06Yeah, but airports as well.
05:07So it's going to be a rough year for transportation in general, a rough winter is what you're saying.
05:12Yeah, but if you're in the road salt business, you're going to like this year or snow removal business.
05:20Okay, so if you are a homeowners association, get your contracts in now.
05:25There you go.
05:26And lock them in.
05:28Okay, Isaac, how are import volumes trending this week?
05:32And what might that indicate for near-term freight demand?
05:38They've been hot and cold, Gary.
05:40And what's interesting about that, again, we should be, in any other year, we'd be in the middle of peak season.
05:45We'd be balls to the wall busy right now.
05:48But again, it's hot and cold.
05:50Some carriers are steady.
05:51Some are really busy.
05:52Some are just completely dead, no work at all.
05:55What's even more concerning is, as we go into the end of the year, we're expecting 15% to 20% import dips in volume due to the front loading that we experienced here in July and August.
06:10So bad weather on the roads.
06:12There's not going to be as many trucks on the roads, I guess, is the only bright side about that.
06:17But yeah, the industry, a couple headlines came out this week.
06:22You know, things like import volumes torched towards the end of the year.
06:26So, you know, there's a lot of concern about what's going to happen in November and December.
06:31So basically, you're seeing, from a transportation perspective, an economic slowdown.
06:38An economic nosedive is what we're seeing.
06:41Wow.
06:41Yeah.
06:42And so, Bob, that would show up in statistics in January and February.
06:48It occurs, yeah.
06:50I've seen just the opposite this past week.
06:54You know, we've been talking about this pickup, golden age of prosperity coming toward the end of the year and into next year.
07:02And I've been looking each month for the first signs of that golden age.
07:06And I've been disappointed up to now.
07:08I really hadn't seen much.
07:09And yet, we just got some data that, to me, are very encouraging.
07:15It turns out that in July, the new orders for durable goods, other than the big stuff like aircraft and defense orders, which can bias the numbers up or down, they hit a new high in July.
07:30And a new all-time high.
07:33And that's the highest that it's been in, well, you know, in several years.
07:38August, the numbers just came out for August.
07:41And they hit a second new all-time high.
07:44Now, this is not a huge surge, but it's a pickup relative to wherever this has been.
07:51This has been pretty flat for the past two years.
07:53So, it's the first sign that I've seen that, oh, this is new orders.
07:58New orders reflect something that's coming three, four, five months into the future.
08:04And so, that's certainly very positive, as opposed to, for example, the employment numbers.
08:09Those are lagging indicators.
08:11Because first, you have to get the new orders.
08:13Then you have to start putting that into effect.
08:15It does kind of coincide with kind of what we're seeing, too, Bob.
08:21Because we saw record volumes, import volumes in July and August.
08:25Record of them.
08:26And it's really to beat the terrorists.
08:27What we're seeing is a lot of front-loading on those new orders.
08:31It's just we're not seeing anything else for the remainder of the year.
08:34That's our biggest concern.
08:36Bob, Isaac is seeing the dip coming for between now and the end of the year.
08:42And you're seeing the things that are going to indicate a pickup after the beginning of the year.
08:47And not only that, but we just had some more data today on August.
08:53Remember, I told you the new orders looked really good in August.
08:57Second month in a row of new record all-time highs.
09:00It's not spectacular, but certainly when you hit new all-time highs, it's more encouraging on new orders than anything else.
09:07But anyway, the numbers that we saw today are the most comprehensive numbers that we've had for August.
09:14And they seem to suggest that real growth in August is coming in at, again, a pretty healthy, maybe even a 3% annual rate, possibly even more than that.
09:24We had data from the second quarter that showed real growth was 3.8%.
09:30That's great.
09:32But it's also a fluke because the first quarter was negative.
09:36So I would average the first two and get a more, you know, the first quarter and the second were biased because of the tariffs.
09:44If you average the two, we've had a 2% or so real growth rate.
09:48That seems to be picking up now to 3% for the overall economy.
09:53I've seen some encouraging numbers that have come out.
09:57So hopefully this is the first sign of what we have been forecasting.
10:02But, you know, we're going to have to wait and see if that's certainly the case.
10:07Isaac, what do you see as the biggest single threat to trucking and logistics over the next 12 months?
10:13Really, Gary, it's what I've seen over the, really it's what my biggest concern has been over the last 24 months.
10:19You know, this recession has been pretty isolated to transportation.
10:22Obviously, the housing market's struggling, you know, quite, you know, they're having a hard time as well.
10:26But my biggest concern over the last 24 months and into the next 12 months is a broader economic recession.
10:34So what Bob's reporting is actually, you know, it's so good news.
10:38I'm optimistic that we might not go into a broader economic recession, but that has been the biggest concern.
10:45Okay.
10:45Are you seeing, so basically, are you seeing any early signs of a shift in demand over the next two months yet?
10:52No, not necessarily a shift in demand, if anything, downward, right?
10:56But what we're seeing, you know, what we're staring at is capacity.
11:00Capacity, capacity, capacity.
11:02We're, a lot of people, including myself, are very hopeful.
11:05But also, you know, there's some really good data saying that this is going to be the last bleed of capacity.
11:11Carriers have held on for the last three years.
11:13We're now going into insurance renewal season, registration season.
11:18All that coupled with the English proficiency stuff that happened a couple of months ago with the illegal immigration.
11:25And truck drivers just being shook to be in the industry after a three-year recession and all this stuff just hitting.
11:30I don't think we're going to have a lot of carriers come out of this.
11:33I think we're going to really, I think this is going to be the year, 2026 is when we finally have our equilibrium to capacity to demand.
11:41Okay.
11:42Bob, stocks basically held steady this past week.
11:45Is that because of interest rates, Fed policy, or because no trend continues in a straight line?
11:53All of the above.
11:54All of the above.
11:56You know, who knows from week to week why the stock market goes up or down?
12:00All I can say is our momentum model for Thursday and Friday, even with what seemed to be pretty big drops from all-time highs, still is at 90% on a daily basis, 96% on a five-day average.
12:16And so what does that mean?
12:17That means that the upward momentum in the market, at least as we measure it, has continued.
12:23Now, that's going to end someday, but so far we're into the fifth month where we have had nothing but pretty positive numbers on momentum.
12:32And all I can say is as of yesterday, as of Thursday, those numbers continue to show strong upward momentum.
12:40Okay.
12:41Despite a slight uptick, really slight, in 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, which are now at 6.3%, but are still almost a half a point lower than they were this July, do you think the downward trend is going to generally continue on interest rates?
12:57Right now, we're at a very critical point because up to now, the technical indicators that we've been looking at on interest rates have said that there's a downward bias.
13:10That latest upward tick may be modest, but it's to the point where we are coming back to a neutral reading instead of a downward reading.
13:18And a couple of more upticks, slight as they may be, and all of a sudden we will shift to an upward bias on long-term interest rates.
13:27And to me, right now, that's the biggest risk, that the long-term interest rates would continue to move higher and higher because that's already killing the housing market.
13:38And it would also kill a lot of the optimism that I would see at this moment.
13:43I'm optimistic.
13:45I mean, the economic numbers, as I said, for July and August show that we may be growing at a 3% annual rate.
13:52That would be the second quarter in a row of strong growth.
13:56And more important than not, the new order data for the end of the year seems to be ticking up very nicely.
14:03Those are all very positive signs.
14:05So I'd like to say that, you know, yep, that golden age of prosperity is just right around the corner.
14:13At least that's what some of the numbers are showing us right now.
14:16We're just going to have to wait a couple more weeks to see if that can change us.
14:20I think that's exactly what's going to happen.
14:22But I think it's going to happen, particularly if we can manage to get more peace settlements going and get everybody to start to behave and act better.
14:35Hey, Don, we haven't heard anything.
14:38What's your latest project coming up in the near future?
14:42Anything exciting?
14:43Well, I'm going to be heading towards Albuquerque, New Mexico late next week to be the lead weather forecaster for the Albuquerque International Balloon Festival.
14:54There will be about 600 hot air balloons there from all around the world.
14:57So that's going to take up a good week of my time down there in New Mexico.
15:02Are you going to bring back pictures and video?
15:04Of course, yes.
15:06There's plenty of photo opportunities at that event, that's for sure.
15:10Are you going to be up in the air or down on the ground?
15:12Well, you know, usually I find a way to wiggle in and get a flight or two in, so I will try.
15:18Weather permitting, of course.
15:21Well, if you do your job well and control the weather, they'll have a good weekend, a good week.
15:27Okay, about our new normal optimism-pessimism question.
15:33Don, are you optimistic about the economy and the country going forward?
15:38Yeah, I am.
15:39And as you mentioned, you know, it would really be nice if we could, in other parts of the world, have things settle down a little bit, because I think overall that would help everybody.
15:48But in this nation and where we're going, still very optimistic.
15:53Isaac, despite some of the downturns coming in the trucking industry over the next two months, are you optimistic or pessimistic?
16:01You know, I'm optimistic, although there will be challenges to come in the upcoming months, you know, nothing that we're not used to in transportation.
16:09I'm looking forward to turning that curve that Bob's talking about to the golden age of prosperity here in the States.
16:16I know we'll get there, and until then, I'll continue earning my gray hairs, Mr. Gary Myers, okay?
16:22Okay.
16:23And Bob?
16:23Yeah, but we're optimistic this week with the first signs that maybe things are picking up toward year end.
16:31And hopefully, if that's the case, Isaac should be seeing some of that later on this year.
16:37Okay.
16:38I am also optimistic on all fronts.
16:41I think that the country is starting to head in the right direction.
16:46I think we've bottomed out, for the most part, economically, spiritually, and maybe even in terms of sanity.
16:54I am very optimistic going forward, and I don't see anything that's standing in the way.
17:01In fact, I also see that I think some parts of Europe, particularly the UK, just might be able to follow us.
17:08That being said, have a good weekend.
17:11Stay safe.
17:12Be well.
17:12And God bless America.
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