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00:00the strongest that we've seen since May of 24, and this is one of the strongest
00:05coronal mass ejections that we've seen really in over 20-some years.
00:18Welcome everyone to the Myers Report Fast 15. It is Friday, November 14th. Quick review of the
00:26Myers Report forecast, and we have a great team for people who put this forecast together from all
00:32over the world. We will soon be releasing our 26, 27, 2026 and 7 forecasts. One of the late,
00:42one of the forecasts that we're going to be releasing is world coming to an end, send money.
00:48What this is about is over the next 90 days, research studies and news stories supporting
00:53those research studies are going to be surfacing about pending disasters everywhere. Now, it's
01:01not that the world is any worse shape. The real issue is this is the beginning of the season where
01:07federal government grant money is starting to be issued. And so you're going to have various
01:14scientists and newspaper people who support them releasing studies saying, hey, give me money.
01:21Now, if they're right and the world is coming to the end, to an end, what's the point? But the point is,
01:27it's not. Don Day, as per our forecast, which we barely entered our books 12 days ago, and we hadn't
01:36even had a chance to announce yet, the New York Post ran a story where climate scientists are claiming
01:42that the Gulf Stream is going to collapse and predicting that we could have a new ice age. Besides the fact
01:50that under that scenario, I would think global warming would then be a good thing. Can you
01:56please explain this one? Just how dumb is this? Well, it's especially dumb because they have brought
02:05this out, this same topic and papers similar to this several times here over the last four to five
02:11years. It's just a retread. It's like they're going to bring it up again. And long story short,
02:18the premise of the paper is, is that they think due to melting ice in Greenland, that fresh water is
02:25going to cause the Gulf Stream to collapse, allowing the end of the warmth from the Gulf Stream going into
02:33the higher latitudes, hence making for a possible another ice age. The problem is, and this is-
02:41One second. Wasn't there a movie with that script called The Day After Tomorrow that was released
02:45about 10 or 15 years ago? Oh yeah, longer than that. But yeah, no, yeah, awful movie. But the-
02:52The premise has been brought out before. And this, and so what amazes me is, I would have thought the
03:01New York Post writer would go back and look at Nexus, Lexus, or whatever, and find out that this has been
03:07brought out several times before. There are many other papers that contradict this theory. And the biggest
03:14problem from a scientific standpoint is this. They claim, and other people who have claimed this over
03:20the last four to five years, are using model data as evidence. They're saying, well, the model says
03:26that in the depths of the Atlantic, this should be happening, or this will happen. The problem is
03:32twofold. First of all, Greenland is not melting nearly at the rate of anybody's predictions. In fact,
03:38the ice mass is growing on Greenland. Number two is, you have to-
03:42You're sure about that, right?
03:44Yes. You have to-
03:44I mean, all these leftists are telling us that the ice caps are shrinking.
03:50Yeah. Well, if they would just go up there, they would, if they use their eyes, they might be
03:53something different. And using your eyes, this, what we're, we've been experiencing over the last
03:5920 years or so, is what I call the death of observational science, which is, used to be you go out and
04:07observe and measure, okay? So, if they really want to say that the water temperature at this depth of
04:14the Atlantic is this, and they say the model shows this, well, then what you do is, in science, rigorous
04:20science, is you go check, you observe. So, right now, people sit behind computers and run models all day.
04:26They are not out in the field. And this is not just an atmospheric science. This is a lot of other
04:31sciences as well, where the comfort of their office of running modeling is much easier than going out
04:38in the field and measuring. And this will be brought up again, but I will tell you, I can list you a half
04:45dozen scientific papers from just as well-condentialed climate scientists who dispute this.
04:51Well, it seems to me that regardless of what else is going on, aren't currents, ocean currents, also caused
04:58because the planet is, I don't know, spinning?
05:01Yeah, you're always going to, yeah, you're always going to have ocean currents. And the Gulf Stream
05:05has collapsed before historically, like 10,000 or some years ago, long before fossil fuels. So, so it has
05:14happened. But, but, yeah, it's, it's a nothing burger. And people should just look at it with
05:21extreme prejudice.
05:23So, basically, it's a matter of understanding that if you have a glass of water, and you spin it,
05:31the water inside of it is going to move.
05:34Yeah, but not only on around Earth, but because the Earth is flat. Didn't you know that?
05:39Sort of like a massive Frisbee. Okay.
05:44Hey, hey, Dom, this week, we had a CME and a great view of the Aurora Borealis all the way down to
05:51Alabama. Exactly what was this? And could it have been a real EMP-like disaster?
05:58So, so I'm going to go through each of those really quickly here. A coronal mass ejection is when
06:04you have basically an explosion out of a sunspot. This causes a massive solar flare and sends highly
06:11energized particles plasma towards Earth. We only get these if they're Earth-directed. A lot of times
06:18these happen and they go off and hit other planets. But we had, over the last two weeks, three coronal
06:24mass ejections that hit the Earth over a span of two days. And it was the strongest that we've seen
06:31since May of 24. And this is one of the strongest coronal mass ejections that we've seen really in
06:37over 20 some years. And yes, this can cause problems. In fact, we did, we're starting to get
06:44reports of some sporadic power outages that may be connected to the Aurora because it, not only do you
06:51get plasma hitting the atmosphere, it changes the electrical currents in the ground. So this affects
06:57GPS systems. In fact, I saw a video this morning of someone who has one of those fancy lawnmowers
07:03that mows your lawn and it's GPS-based. And it ended up going through the people's flowers. This
07:09happened down in Florida. So, so these are, these are serious. Now the current solar storm has subsided
07:17for now. But we are in the phase of the sun right now where more of this activity could happen.
07:23So we're in a high, the sun is now in a high activity phase?
07:28We're just coming down from its peak, which is actually historically a time where you need to
07:33watch out for things. That's an 11-year cycle, isn't it? It's an 11-year cycle, but it's better
07:38to put these cycles two together and, you know, call it a 22-year cycle, at least with sunspots and
07:43solar flares. So we, that's why you go back 20 years to find just as many that have been as strong.
07:50John, what about the weather over Thanksgiving? What's going to happen here?
07:53It is looking like most of the United States is going to have a very cold Thanksgiving or it will
07:59be turning colder during Thanksgiving weekend. Okay. Bob Janetsky, the markets seem to have ignored
08:07that the government was closed and now the government is reopening and the markets fell.
08:15Why is this happening? Maybe it's the solar flare that came and disrupted all the electrical factors.
08:20I don't know. Tracking the market week to week, day to day, anything can happen. We had a situation
08:30where we know the market has been under a tremendous burst of optimism left and right. That doesn't
08:36always last. And so we've gone through a period now where people are saying maybe we got too optimistic.
08:42I talked about the profitability in the second quarter, or I'm sorry, in the third quarter.
08:49And I talked about the numbers being strong. Well, it turned out we now have over 80% of all the
08:57companies having reported. And third quarter profits were up 25% from a year ago. I mean, that's
09:04the nosebleed weather. The companies have done very well. But because they've done that well,
09:10all of a sudden, the analysts are slowing down their expectations for the future, thinking that
09:17maybe they're too high right now. Now they lowered those expectations so that they now think profits are
09:24going to increase by about 8% over the coming four quarters. Now they used to be up at 10%. Before that,
09:31they were expecting a 15% increase. Not much has changed here. It's just that we've got the profits
09:36early instead of late. But the stock market looks to the future. And if expectations are coming down,
09:44then the stock market is less inclined to be really optimistic. So one final thing, because
09:51we've had an adjustment downward. And if you look at the futures markets this morning,
09:57the S&P 500 has dropped to a very critical level. And I talk about this in my weekly report,
10:04it's the 50 day moving average. And if you get the market below that 50 day moving average,
10:10it certainly weakens the upward bullish momentum. And we'll have to wait until the end of today to
10:15see if we go below that level. It seems to me that with inflation coming down,
10:20and with the price of oil coming down, which impacts inflation, is it possible? I think that
10:32an 8% increase in profitability over the next year for companies may be kind of low.
10:38Well, you and I believe that inflation is coming down, but the numbers don't show up because the
10:44government went on vacation. Without the government numbers, no one can be sure about whether
10:50inflation is still in the 3% area, or perhaps it's coming down as you and I think it is,
10:56or perhaps it's higher. So there's a lot of uncertainty in the market right now over that
11:02inflation question. You did an analysis of government spending that demonstrates that it's
11:08really under control. And the decrease in spending or the progress that's being made
11:16was hidden by a date anomaly. Can you explain, can you elaborate as to what you were saying?
11:23The question is whether government spending is growing at the rate of the rest of the economy,
11:30or is it growing slower because of all the cuts that the Trump administration has made,
11:36and Doge has made. So it's a question that I wanted answered. And we finally had the numbers come
11:42out this past week. And what the numbers showed is that the government spending in fiscal 2025,
11:50which ended in September, was up at a 4% rate from a year ago. That's just the raw numbers.
11:58The economy has grown about 5% to 6% in terms of total spending. So that would mean that federal
12:04spending was less than the economy, which is good. That's one of the criteria that I use for judging
12:10whether or not we're moving in the direction of really healthy containment of government.
12:16Now, it's actually better than the 4% because there was an anomaly at the end of 2024, the fiscal year,
12:25where the numbers that should have gone in in fiscal 2024 ended up spending going into fiscal 2025.
12:34I know it's kind of technical. But basically, what it showed is that $72 billion that should have been
12:41in the 2024 year, got rolled over into 2025, because it occurred on the weekend. And if you adjust for
12:49this, what it turns out is that really federal spending went up only 1.9% in fiscal 2025 over fiscal 24.
12:59That's well slower than the 5% or 6% increase in the economy. And it means that we've made
13:06tremendous progress in getting control of what we thought was a tremendously out of control
13:12federal budget. And congratulations to Doge and the Trump administration. I'm terribly impressed by the
13:21amount of slowdown in a very brief period of time since Trump came on.
13:26So why are we, why are you, why do you seem to be the only economist that sees this?
13:32Well, the numbers are out there. It's, it's, I would go back to what Don said about,
13:36you know, you got to go out and observe things instead of looking at a model.
13:41The numbers, these are not numbers that I pull out of the air. The adjustment.
13:46I know that your forecasts have been.
13:49And the adjustment because of that timing difference. The Congressional Budget Office talks about it.
13:55This is not something I came up with. They, they always mention it so that people
13:59can adjust. And yet I, you're right. I have seen no other, no other economists or no other
14:05comments that have suggested that we've had this slowdown in federal spending.
14:11And it's something I've been talking about, looking for all year. We finally have the answer.
14:16So I put it out there and I haven't seen anyone else comment on it yet.
14:21We're going to put it out there ourselves. It could be, it could be that the mass media doesn't
14:26want to hear this because it's good news. It is good news.
14:30And Doge, you're comfortable with how Doge is working. It's, it's saved us money.
14:34When I look and try and back out the numbers, like how much has Doge and the Trump administration
14:41really cut from federal spending? And it turns out that I come up with a number of over $500
14:47billion. In one year. In one year. Now, it doesn't all show up. It doesn't all show up in the numbers
14:55because the, uh, Trump administration added about $320 billion in military budget control
15:04and, uh, the elimination of some of the illegal immigrants that added $320 billion.
15:10They're not immigrants. They are illegal aliens.
15:14Of course.
15:18All right. Uh, that is, you are unique and, uh, thank you.
15:25Thank you all. Let's have a, this was an interesting discussion.
15:29Stay safe.
15:29I'm still optimistic.
15:31Yes, you are optimistic. Isaac, are you optimistic?
15:35Forever, I'm forever optimistic. Yes.
15:37And Don, are you optimistic?
15:39I'm never forever, but I'm still.
15:42All right, guys, stay well, be safe, have a great weekend and God bless America.
15:55I'm pretty much happy.
16:06I'm not happy, but I'm happy, but I'm happy.
16:10I'm happy, but I'm happy.
16:11Please join me if we're not in my future.
16:13I'm happy.
16:14I'm happy.
16:14I'm happy.
16:15I've had a great weekend.
16:16I'm happy.
16:17I'm happy.
16:17I'm happy.
16:18I'm happy.
16:19I hope you do.
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