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00:00Psychology is very powerful. It's very powerful in the stock market, very powerful in gold markets.
00:07People make a lot of money from the price of gold going up.
00:19Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Myers Report Fast 15. It is Friday, October 17th, 2025.
00:26Well, one of the things we're very proud of is we can announce another Myers Report team forecast win.
00:35On November 11th, 2024, we forecast that President Trump would be refilling the strategic oil reserve gradually without hurting the markets.
00:46Since his taking office, the SOR, strategic oil reserve, has been getting filled at a weekly rate of one half of one percent of capacity.
00:57And oil prices during the same period of time have fallen by 22.2 percent.
01:03If you want more information on forecasts from the Myers Report, go to MyersReport.news, and you'll find our 170-some-odd forecasts.
01:13And so far, of 120 or so that are measurable, we're still up at a 93.5 percent accuracy rate, which we're pretty proud of.
01:25Because it took 22 of us to do it.
01:28News about Venezuela.
01:29The U.S. just destroyed the sixth drug ship in international waters off the coast of Venezuela with a drone strike.
01:38President Trump is absolutely serious about the war on cartels, which are trading in everything from drugs to young girls and spreading political corruption everywhere.
01:50As discussed in earlier editions of the Myers Report, the U.S. Naval and Ground Forces—this is according to our own sources, obviously—the U.S. Naval and Ground troops that are deployed with the Naval Forces are not enough for a 1990-style overthrow of Manuel Noriega in Panama.
02:16However, the Fort Bragg-based 82nd Airborne Division and the Fort Campbell-Kentucky-based 101st Airborne Division, with those two units, rapid deployment is really possible.
02:34Remember that when the hurricane hit Haiti, the 82nd Airborne was able to deploy approximately 15,000 men in something like 24 to 36 hours.
02:45And that's without real preparation.
02:48This is what is scaring a President Maduro of Venezuela.
02:53This may be enough for the domestic forces of Venezuela to do it themselves, knowing that there would be support from the U.S.
03:01Well, we shall see.
03:04Don Day is not with us today.
03:06He is on a pheasant hunt.
03:08He'll be back with us next week, and he's going to give us a whole synopsis of what he has done, complete with pictures, and probably no birds.
03:20We'll see what he gets.
03:21He's got a brand-new hunting dog who's about nine months old, named Winston.
03:26He's named after Winston Churchill.
03:28I hope he's better looking.
03:29Okay, in the meantime, Isaac, what is the latest trend in import-export container flow, and are we seeing strength or softening in the key ports?
03:40Well, we're definitely seeing softening.
03:42The bloodbath has begun.
03:44It started about three weeks ago.
03:46Import volumes are plummeting.
03:48People are concerned.
03:51The industry is projecting about a 10% to 15% drop in import volume for the remainder of the year.
03:57We've averaged month over month for all of 2012 approximately 2.3, 2.4 million containers imported to the United States.
04:07We're expecting volumes to drop in the neighborhood of 1.7 to 1.9 million containers each month to the remainder of the year.
04:16So you're looking at a 10% to 15% drop, which is huge.
04:19It's huge, mind you, in an already depressed freight market.
04:24Isaac, what's emerging demand growth for e-commerce and retail, restock, and industrial?
04:33And which sectors are looking the most promising?
04:36Before I get there, one thing that's also really important to note about the imports, global, poor activity.
04:44Global imports are on the rise.
04:47They're about 1.4% up month over month, 5.4% up year over year.
04:52And this is driven by the strength in shipping from China to Europe.
04:56So definitely something that's very, very important for us to continue to watch.
05:03Okay.
05:04So what about emerging demand in e-commerce, retail, restock, and industrial?
05:10Which sectors do you think look the most promising?
05:12You know, everything right now, all modes of transportation, unfortunately, are depressed right now.
05:16All modes of transportation, flatbed, drive-in, refrigerated shipping, all of them are down high single digits, some of them low double digits.
05:26What's moving right now, specifically, what's going crazy, is liquidation product, cheap stuff, returns.
05:34What we're seeing is this new sector coming up where it's all about, you know, here's what we're seeing.
05:40We're seeing Americans no longer even have money to shop at Walmart.
05:44Everyone's going for bin stores, thrift stores, and we're seeing a tremendous amount of product move in that space right now.
05:52As we head into year-end, do you expect freight demand to seasonally ramp up or continue to taper off?
05:59No, it is 100%.
06:01I am 100% certain, and the industry is 100% certain that peak season is behind us.
06:07It will continue to taper off week over week as we get to the end of the year.
06:11There are still, you know, some trucking companies who are extremely hopeful, but I'm hopeful that there will be a surge on the way.
06:20But as the days and weeks go by, it's becoming abundantly clear that peak season is behind us.
06:27Okay.
06:28Dr. Bob Janetsky, is the stock market really in a downward trend, or is it temporary?
06:36Well, I think it's temporary.
06:37It's certainly the big bull market, the upward surge in momentum has slowed a bit.
06:46It's not down, but it's weakening significantly.
06:51And it's weakening probably because of several factors.
06:55One, we continue to see a lot of disturbance with respect to the trade tariff back and forth with China.
07:04Secretary of State Benson made a comment the other day.
07:09He said that the negotiations with China were not going well.
07:14He says, as a matter of fact, their negotiator had been basically so bad that the U.S., if he continues to be that way, would have to consider totally decoupling from China.
07:27That is, we're not going to basically accept any goods from China anymore.
07:34That's an extreme move.
07:36No one really anticipates that.
07:39We don't anticipate that here because that sort of a thing would really affect China, whose economy has already become very weak as far as we can see.
07:50It's possible that Chairman Xi is no longer in power, that the power base has shifted.
07:57And with this shift, there may be some very strange things occurring.
08:02But we doubt that China is going to want to see the whole trade with the United States cut off completely.
08:09That would hurt us.
08:10And it would hurt us at a time now that, as Isaac's saying, that we're already seeing some weakness there.
08:17But it would hurt China far more.
08:20And that's why when we look at this, we're thinking that they're going to come to a solution on this one.
08:30Bob, yesterday.
08:32We're concerned about that.
08:32Your question was about the market.
08:34Say, yeah, investors are concerned.
08:36It's always a concern if you could have a major cutoff in business activity, especially when we've already had weakness because of the government shutdown.
08:47An awful lot of government workers are not going to be paid.
08:50They're not going to be spending money.
08:51They're going to be cutting.
08:53And the surveys show an awful lot of other consumers are worried as well.
08:58We don't know how long the government shutdown is going to last.
09:01One of my sons, who follows this very closely, including following all the rules in the Senate and stuff like this, is convinced that the Democrats will want to keep the government shut down well into November so that they can say that they shut it down the longest of any other period of a government shutdown.
09:25Now, somehow, the Democrats...
09:27I mean, that is incredible.
09:28And it's incredibly stupid, but I mean, that they would want to do that and then run on that in the next election.
09:38That we accomplished a government shutdown.
09:40We did this against Trump.
09:42And it sounds ridiculous, but he's saying...
09:45It is ridiculous.
09:46Okay, but think of the philosophy of the Democrats.
09:51Why are they doing this to begin with?
09:53Do they really think that this is a winning issue in the next election?
09:56Again, he thinks that that's what they want to do.
10:01And that's what they, in their own minds, they think that this is really a challenge.
10:06We'll cover that upcoming.
10:10Yesterday, Bob, the price of West Texas Intermediate closed at $57.42, down from $77.39, the day that President Trump took office.
10:22So far, the average price of WTI oil in October is $60.21, down a little under 5% from September's average.
10:36Assuming the government opens, doesn't this bode well for our inflation numbers to be reported?
10:42It bodes great.
10:44I just filled up my tank yesterday, $2.75 a gallon.
10:50I haven't seen that price in a long, long time.
10:54But it's almost like, oh my gosh, you know, they're giving this stuff away compared to where it was before.
11:01We've had a huge easing in oil prices, gasoline prices, and that's going to be reflected not in the upcoming numbers.
11:10The upcoming numbers next Friday is the latest estimate that the government is giving us for when the CPI for September comes out.
11:18September, oil prices were essentially flat.
11:22There wasn't much of a move.
11:23So most people are expecting just normal two-tenths, three-tenths of a percent increases when those prices are reported.
11:32But the following month in November, when the October numbers are reported.
11:36That's going to look good.
11:37That's going to look great.
11:38So I think we're moving in the right direction.
11:42I don't think the next inflation number, even if it's a little higher, is going to be scaring people because with the oil prices coming down, inflation usually also moderates significantly.
11:56I think we're going to see some really good numbers coming out in November, December, January.
12:03Bob, why are the oil prices coming down?
12:05What's causing that?
12:09Gary, why are they coming down?
12:11I think that peace in the Middle East is a factor.
12:15I think the income, the increases in production and efficiency in our country and how we're operating despite the internal strife.
12:27I think that Trump is on a peace roll.
12:31And if anybody is considering that the economy might be slowing, well, then you have a lessening of demand.
12:38And all in all, we did project that 2026 was going to be an interesting period where oil prices were going to come down, which would lower inflation.
12:52We could conceivably see declining prices in some areas, which theoretically would be deflationary and harmful.
13:00But if you are lowering the costs and oil companies can still make increased profits, then if there's increased profits, if there's lower costs there, look for companies to be increasing their profitability and the economy to grow.
13:18This is a great setup.
13:20At least that's my take on it.
13:21Yeah, and we've had, Gary, the fundamental price of oil, as I calculated, it's about $62 a barrel.
13:30So you can have a swing of $10 in either direction.
13:33So you're talking about anywhere from $152 to a high of $172 if things got bad on the other end.
13:41Right now, we're looking at the lower end of that instead of the upper end.
13:47Bob, the year ago, November, we forecast that oil, once Trump got in, would stay pretty much in a bracket of a low of $57 a barrel to a high of $67.
14:01At least that's what we projected it to be for the majority of 2025.
14:06And so far, we're hitting it dead on the money, which is another one of our forecasts, which is coming true.
14:13Bob, yesterday, gold hit $4,392 a troy ounce.
14:18This is one of the few economic forecasts that we totally blew.
14:22Obviously, the run-up is because banks and governments are stockpiling gold because they started that, I guess, almost a year ago because of the uncertainty of everything that was going on.
14:38You'll calculate gold as having a fundamental value of $1,200.
14:44What has happened that has made it go so high?
14:49Obviously, what seems to have happened is institutional buy.
14:52It's a combination of forces, the same thing that happened that drove oil prices over $100 when the fundamental price of oil is maybe $62, something like that.
15:05Psychology is very powerful.
15:08It's very powerful in the stock market, very powerful in gold markets.
15:12People make a lot of money from the price of gold going up.
15:16Isaac, are you optimistic about our future?
15:19You know, there's a lot of heartburn in trucking right now, but I'm optimistic, Gary.
15:26And for the country?
15:27The sun's around the corner for the country as well as trucking.
15:31Okay.
15:32Bob, are you optimistic?
15:33I'm very optimistic.
15:35I believe all of this is going to pass, and we're still headed for a great year next year and for hopefully many years to come.
15:43I am very optimistic by what I see for the country.
15:48I see the economy is fundamental.
15:50I think our economy is fundamentally solid.
15:53I see industry getting reassured.
15:57I see a cleanup in our elections.
15:59And one of the things we have to watch going forward is the Clay v. Louisiana case before the Supreme Court,
16:08which can effectively get rid of race-based organization of voting districts for Congress.
16:16With that, I would say, guys, have a great weekend.
16:20Be safe and be well, and God bless America.
16:29Be safe and be well, and God bless America.
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