- 3 months ago
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00But I think a white Christmas for a large part of the, especially the northern half, if we were to kind of use everything along and north of Interstate 80, I think there's a really good chance of that.
00:17Good morning. Welcome to the Myers Report.
00:21Friday, Fast 15. It is Friday, November 21st, 2025.
00:27Of interesting news is the latest reports coming out for the Ukraine-Russia peace offering is exactly what we forecast over a year ago, that Russia would keep Crimea, they would keep the eastern Russian-speaking parts of the Donbass, and Ukraine would not become part of NATO.
00:52Let's hope this actually holds and comes through.
00:55Don, next week is Thanksgiving. Are we going to have weather that's worthy of our giving thanks?
01:02Yeah, we certainly will. And this is going to be especially true the weekend after Thanksgiving.
01:06Thanksgiving. We will see some colder weather hit the U.S. northern tier, the northern states, the Great Lakes.
01:14Just in time for Thanksgiving, it's going to get colder. There will be some lake effect snows.
01:19Then a large part of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Northern Plains, Rockies, will have a larger winter storm that will be developing the weekend after Thanksgiving.
01:28And this is going to segue into what is looking like for all of the lower 48, a cold December.
01:35When we look at long-range forecasts when we go into a winter season, there's some winters where the weather patterns are driven by subtle things that will kind of work together,
01:46that it's a little bit harder to see what all the subtle workings will do.
01:51So this situation that we have this winter going into the December, January, and February timeframe is large-scale global weather patterns that we've seen historically have led to cold winters across not only the U.S., but parts of Europe as well.
02:06And that's what we see developing. It all gets kick-started here a weekend from this one.
02:11So you're figuring we're going to see maybe even a white Christmas? Is that a fair question?
02:17There's a good chance. Well, it depends on where you are, but I think a white Christmas for a large part of the, especially the northern half,
02:24if we were to kind of use everything along and north of Interstate 80, I think there's a really good chance of that.
02:30Okay. How's it looking in general around the world? Anything dramatic?
02:35Well, yeah. Well, Europe just had a cold shot. In fact, there was some record snow in parts of Europe and parts of the Middle East.
02:42Some of you may have heard about a drought in Iran the summer and fall. They had flooding, some very heavy rains.
02:50So the weather's gotten very busy over in Europe and in parts of eastern areas of Europe.
02:56You know, that's one thing I can't wonder, think, is part of the equation with the news on Russia and Ukraine is maybe trying to get things settled here before they go into the winter.
03:10That would be a very good thing for everybody, and that would be a really wonderful Christmas gift for all.
03:16Dr. Bob Janetsky, the stock market, a bit of a hit this week.
03:23A bit of a hit, yes. It's down about 5%, 6%, depending upon the index and the stocks you have.
03:29And that's on the top of another percentage point or two prior to that.
03:33So, yeah, we've got a pretty decent downward move.
03:37And the question I keep getting from my family.
03:40Why?
03:41Knowing why did this happen?
03:42And the answer is, you know, first of all, the markets are highly volatile.
03:48They get overvalued.
03:50There's excessive optimism.
03:52The optimism goes away.
03:54So there are normal swings that occur.
03:56The other thing I do is whenever I see anything that's reasonably significant, and I have this as significant.
04:03All the indexes are below key support at the 50-day moving average.
04:07That's not a good sign.
04:08So I look around and I say, well, has anything happened to change the assessment of the future?
04:16And I think that there were two things that I would tap on, and that could be possible explanations.
04:21One of these, just on Tuesday, the district court in Texas ended up saying that the Texas redistricting was unconstitutional, that they could not do it.
04:32And I've looked at the arguments pro and con, and I think that that ruling is going to stand.
04:38I don't think it's going to be successfully appealed.
04:40I could be wrong on that.
04:41But the point is, if the redistricting doesn't go through and California has already decided to redistrict, it shifts the odds dramatically in favor of the Democrats as opposed to the Republicans.
04:54We still don't know.
04:56Hold on a second.
04:56If Texas can't redistrict, how come California can?
05:02The California thing, as far as I know, has not been brought up in court.
05:09And, of course, where it's going to go to a district court is going to have a lot of different decisions than where the Texas won.
05:15But that's one thing.
05:16So if all of a sudden all the assumptions we've made about the Trump plan going through and all our forecasts of good times ahead, all of a sudden something's happened to reduce the odds a bit on that.
05:29A second factor that's occurred, and I spoke about this in my monthly report, and that is that there's been a dramatic change in profit forecast by the analysts.
05:40Now, the reason the corporate profits.
05:43Yeah, corporate profits.
05:44The reason for the change was the third quarter, which we now have good hard data on, was so high that the analysts can't believe that that's going to continue.
05:56It was an extraordinary quarter.
05:58So they have forecast two quarters of declining profits, not huge declines.
06:04But if you're in the stock market and you're a trader, when the analysts tell you that profits are going to go down for the next two quarters, that doesn't make you feel, if you've got a short-term horizon, that you're very comfortable.
06:17So that's another.
06:18Well, isn't that like getting a bonus check this month that's twice what you thought it was going to be, and you're going to be unhappy when the bonus checks come in the following months?
06:29And they're less, but there's no bonus checks.
06:32Except that you have to understand that the stock market is always looking ahead.
06:37It doesn't care about what happened in the third quarter.
06:40It's looking at the fourth quarter and the first quarter.
06:42And all I'm saying is this is another potential reason for the decline in the stock market.
06:49My view is I think this decline is going to be temporary.
06:53I believe we still have good economic data coming out, especially when it finally does start to come out.
06:59So I'm encouraged that the profitability is going to be good.
07:03And this is just kind of a normal blick.
07:06How are interest rates looking?
07:08They seem to be pretty stable.
07:10Yeah.
07:10And this is good news.
07:13The interest rates have been remarkably stable in the long-term area and, of course, in the short-term area.
07:19But we're looking at the 10-year Treasury at 4.1%.
07:23And that's been 4.0% to 4.2% for basically the past several months.
07:30It's remarkable stability, which I consider also to be good news.
07:36The lower those interest rates, the more likely it is that the stock market can rebound.
07:42The one thing we don't want to see is those interest rates go up, because especially in the light of the recent weakness in the market,
07:49any sort of increase in those long-term interest rates would be highly negative for the stocks.
07:54Bob, I've got a question for you.
07:56There's been talk that delinquencies are going up.
08:02And with this, what we're looking at right now is the Fed data coming out of the Fed New York.
08:08And it looks to me like everything is stable in terms of delinquencies.
08:13So wait a minute.
08:13What's that big green line on top?
08:16That is consumer debt.
08:19That's consumer delinquencies.
08:21But if you look for the – this is going back to 2019.
08:25It is – it's been still stable for the past three quarters.
08:29So nothing dramatic is happening there.
08:30In the meantime, home mortgages and HELOC loans have a 90-day delinquency of 0.75% as compared to 9% when they hit a high in 2010.
08:47And 4.5%, 4.4% in 2010 also for the HELOC loans.
08:56And auto loans had a delinquency of 5.01.
09:02Right now, they're at 5.02.
09:04So there's no real change there.
09:06The auto delinquencies have been stable.
09:09Yeah.
09:09Home mortgages have been stable.
09:11So with all the stability, where's the economic – where's the problem?
09:19How can you have a recession when people are in good shape?
09:25Well, I don't think we're going to have a recession.
09:28I don't like that forecast.
09:30But different people have different ideas.
09:33Okay.
09:34Fair enough.
09:36Don, are you optimistic with all the craziness going on?
09:40Are you optimistic going forward or pessimistic?
09:43Yeah, I'm optimistic going into the end of the year.
09:46Oops.
09:48And also going into 2026.
09:51So I remain optimistic.
09:54There's always bumps in the road.
09:56And there's certainly going to be bumps in the road we don't see.
09:59But I think overall, we're in good shape.
10:01And you don't see anything bad happening on the horizon regarding weather other than normal weather?
10:08Yeah, other than be ready for quite a bit of winter weather this year.
10:12But we're not going to have an ice age, right?
10:15At least not next year.
10:17No, no.
10:18No ice age.
10:19I am predicting an ice age in 6,000 years from today.
10:22Exactly.
10:23From today.
10:24Bob, do you remain – despite what we've seen elsewhere – do you remain optimistic or pessimistic?
10:31Yeah, what more can you ask for?
10:33Good weather, good economy.
10:34At the moment, things appear to be going in the right direction.
10:38And I expect them to continue to do that.
10:41I think that between the good weather, which will give us a good growing season and plenty of good food available,
10:48a stable economy with interest rates coming down and energy costs coming down,
10:58I think that no matter how the opposition tries to take down our president,
11:03I think we're going to have a good year, and I think it's going to come out just in time.
11:07All of this is going to become very evident just in time for the midterms.
11:11And so, therefore, I am optimistic as well.
11:15Have a nice weekend.
11:17Stay safe.
11:18Be well.
11:19Have a great Thanksgiving, guys.
11:20You too.
11:20Have a nice Thanksgiving.
11:21We're not meeting next week.
11:23And God bless America.
11:45We're not meeting next week.
11:54We're going to be here.
Comments