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00:00quarter data in the third quarter tell us what happened between the spring
00:03and the summer months. So we are way behind in terms of trying to understand what's going on.
00:14Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Myers Report, Fast 15. It is Friday,
00:19December 5th, 2025. We are getting close to the end of the year. Don, the big news of the week,
00:27or maybe for a much, much longer period, is that the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
00:35in Germany revised their economic analysis, excuse me, their climate analysis. Don,
00:42why was this report revised? Well, it was because it was published in the Journal of Nature,
00:49which is, as a lot of you know, is a very prominent scientific publication. And it was picked up and
00:55used by a lot of people to start to work on policy. Now, this is not the only report like this, but
01:02the Journal of Nature this week retracted the article because of several glaring errors that
01:11many people had found in the paper. They retracted the entire article, not just corrected it.
01:16Well, yeah, well, they're, they're, the authors are acting, are asking that they can correct some
01:22of the errors. They're admitting the, they're admitting they made errors. The problem is,
01:26and this is something that has occurred over and over and over again in this whole climate situation,
01:33is, is that the damage is already done. These papers come out, the peer review process is broken.
01:40They make a lot of headlines, policymakers pick them up, and then we find out later,
01:45oh, well, yeah, we could have done better, or the peer reviewers miss this and they make mistakes,
01:53but the damage is already done. And, and policy is set on a lot of these journal articles.
02:03And, and this is a good example where insurance companies, banks, central banks,
02:10use these estimates of future climate scenarios. And one big thing that came out of this was that
02:19they were talking that climate change was going to cost trillions and trillions of dollars.
02:25So insurance companies were using data sets like this one to set insurance rates.
02:30Doesn't that mean, does that mean that we could see insurance rates going down now that the insurance
02:35companies are seeing that they're, they're, they're, their, their data sets were wrong?
02:42Their actuarial data sets were wrong.
02:44To quote the great sports, sportscaster, Lee Corso, not so fast, my friends.
02:49I mean, they've been jacking up rates here for quite a long time,
02:54and you're still going to get your, your, your people who are going to come back and say,
02:59well, yeah, we made some mistakes, but we're still going to have problems.
03:03But I do see the insurance industry maybe being a little bit under the microscope for this.
03:10Well, could it, one of the questions I'm sure that's going to come out
03:13is whether or not the insurance companies knew that this information was wrong
03:19and was simply taking advantage of it for profit.
03:23Well, that's a good question. I mean, we could certainly surmise that there was some of that going
03:28on, but this paper, and along with many other projections of, as we've talked about
03:33with our Friday discussions and other videos, is they continue to use outdated modeling of the
03:40worst case scenario for the climate, using the absolutely worst case scenario that not one ethical
03:46climate scientists would ever use, but these, these, these.
03:50Actually, you say ethical climate scientists, it seems to me that they have violated the rules
03:55of the scientific method, so you might include other scientists in other fields as well.
04:00Well, yeah, that is true, but these things like this Potsdam group,
04:05you get a lot of these NGOs, and you get a lot of these,
04:09these environmental groups that hire scientists to be on the payroll to produce these reports.
04:17Well, it seems to me that if the risk is lower, so again, does that mean insurance premiums will
04:23go down in some states if the risk, in fact, is lower? Is that a possibility, do you think?
04:28Possibility, but I think, I think people need to sue. I think they need to litigate this.
04:33Well, I'm sure it will happen because the higher insurance rates have caused real estate values
04:41to go down in some areas, such as Florida. That's been a real problem. Don, have there been any other
04:49major climate reports that also have proved, turned out to be false? Yeah, well, well, there's many,
04:57and a lot of these are just projections and, and using poor modeling, poor calculations. I mean,
05:03we were talking before we got on here about the leaked emails from the University of East Anglia.
05:09You know, this happened quite a few years ago where the University of East Anglia and many climate
05:15scientists were caught cooking the books, caught red-handed, and the University of East Anglia
05:21has not denied that those emails were, they, they, they did agree that those were their emails,
05:29but you never hear about it. More than just the emails, I remember reading news stories
05:34where the president of East Anglia University admitted that their, the books had been cooked,
05:40and in fact, that rather than global warming, at the time, we were dealing with global cooling,
05:46and global cooling is far more lethal than global warming.
05:50Yeah, well, what's interesting about all of that University of East Anglia scandal was,
05:56is that there were two review panels done by the university that claimed that, yes, those emails
06:02were real, yes, they cooked the books, but they were just scientists behaving badly.
06:10And nobody lost their job, nobody got fired. It was just a total whitewash.
06:15So, Don, all this teaching in the schools that were heading for global warming,
06:21worrying the kids that they're going to be burning alive and that there's no reason to live,
06:26all that's nonsense.
06:28Yes. You know, it's, it's like an onion. Every time you peel back a new layer of this,
06:33you find something new.
06:34Or Harry Truman would have put it, it's the residue left by a mule, by the south end of a mule heading north.
06:45Bob.
06:46Yes.
06:46Two weeks ago, the stock market took a hit.
06:50You said the decline would be short-lived, and you were dead on the money.
06:54Two weeks later, the stock market is back.
06:56What happened?
06:57Well, first of all, I didn't, I didn't predict the next two weeks would be coming back this quickly.
07:04I just thought that this was a typical downturn that you, that occurs from time to time.
07:11And we shouldn't, we shouldn't get overexcited about it.
07:14So, I, let's, let's say I got lucky.
07:17The market came back right away.
07:19Well, you've been, you've been lucky, uh, as about as much as Don Day, you know, the two of you guys have been remarkably accurate for most things.
07:29But it's just, you know, so let's not be too modest.
07:33Home mortgage rates dropped slightly.
07:35Uh, the 30-year fixed is down to 6.23%, and the 15-year fixed is down to 5.51%.
07:43And yesterday, the 10-year treasury closed at 4.06%.
07:48How does it look, uh, in terms of interest rates from here?
07:52Yeah, uh, at, at the moment, when I look at the interest rates, they've, they've leveled off quite a bit.
07:59Uh, they're actually up this morning to four, back, back up to 4.1%, just over 4.1%.
08:04So, it really hasn't been, there hasn't been a significant move in the past two months.
08:10And that's the same way, uh, if you look at the stock market, too.
08:14Uh, the down, the back up again, you average it all out.
08:18It really hasn't gone anywhere for the past two months, and probably won't go anywhere until we get a clearer sight of what's happening in the economy.
08:28We're starting to get some of the economic numbers come out, but they're still way, way old.
08:35Uh, the numbers that'll come out right before Christmas are gonna tell us what happened in the economy, to GDP, to the overall economy, between the spring and summer.
08:47That's what's gonna happen when the data come out on December 23rd.
08:52Uh, it's the third quarter data, and the third quarter tell us what happened between the spring and the summer months.
08:58So, we are way behind in terms of trying to understand what's going on.
09:02When we look at the business surveys, however, we find that a number of the business surveys have picked up, and they suggest that the economy is growing at a pretty rapid rate.
09:14And that's in spite of the fact that we're not seeing a lot of growth in the job market.
09:19So, we're seeing a job market that continues to be weak, but an economy that continues to grow.
09:25At least we believe it continues to grow.
09:28I think that's good news.
09:29I think we are still in this transition phase from, uh, reacting to the, to Trump's policies.
09:37I believe those policies are extremely positive, and we're going to see more and more signs of an improvement in the economy as we go into the coming year.
09:47Uh, Bob, oil prices yesterday were down to $59.63 per barrel, uh, which is almost exactly what we forecast.
09:59A year ago, uh, how does inflation look to you?
10:03I think it's coming down.
10:04We've got some numbers coming out later on today, but again, they're back from October.
10:10And I just saw this morning, a lot of people are forecasting that these numbers are going to be disappointing.
10:17They may be disappointing, but you and I, Gary, look very closely at oil prices.
10:22And in October, oil prices were down really significantly.
10:26And that should have moderated the inflation rates.
10:28So, I think that people have become overly pessimistic.
10:32I think we're going to have two things happen that are going to be really positive.
10:36One, some of these numbers are going to show inflation is still trending downward.
10:41It's lower than some people have feared.
10:44And also, uh, we're going to see the Fed cut interest rates in the short-term area, their target.
10:50And that, uh, that will actually restore a normal yield curve.
10:55Normal is when the short, really short-term rates are below the long-term rates.
10:59We haven't seen that in a long time, and I think we could see it, uh, within the next month.
11:04And that would be really another sign that the financial system is in better shape than a lot of people think.
11:12Isaac, do the lower, the lower fuel rates, are they, are they helping you much at all?
11:17And how's it looking in the trucking industry?
11:19Yeah, they're definitely helping, but, uh, too little, too late.
11:22A lot of people in the industry are suffering still, uh, insurance premiums are up 20, 25%.
11:28Some positive news, um, the exodus of capacity is in full swing.
11:34Uh, you have a lot of truck drivers, tens of thousands of truck drivers leaving the, leaving the industry as we speak.
11:41What's even more important than that, the administration is taking a really big focus right now on illegal logbooks
11:49that allow drivers to drive double the hours of their American legal counterparts.
11:54Why this is really, really important.
11:56A, it doubles capacity with one single driver because he's driving as if he's two.
12:02And three, and two, um, he's fatigued.
12:05Uh, public safety is deteriorating on our roads right now, but things are improving fast right now in trucking.
12:11Bob, uh, what is your outlook for the stock market for the rest of the year?
12:18You mean for the next week or two?
12:20I, I expect very little change.
12:22I, I don't think we're going to find out enough in the next week or two to really change people's expectations.
12:28Now, there's always the possibility of, I would call it a white swan coming out, um, peace in the Ukraine.
12:36The, we've, we've seen a number of arguments or a number of articles showing that those people negotiating for peace are very optimistic about a breakthrough.
12:48Something like that happens that would be a very positive indicator for the stock market.
12:52And that's why you can't really forecast, uh, the next week, unless you knew what was happening.
12:58Uh, on balance, I believe the economic numbers are going to continue to look better and better.
13:05And as that occurs, the market will incorporate that and the trend, the upward trend will continue.
13:11I think we're going to get a settlement there in the Ukraine, which I find, uh, interesting because so far it's looking like it's exactly the terms, just about exactly the terms that we had discussed.
13:24A year ago, last, last November, we were a year ahead of the curve.
13:31Um, Don, are you optimistic about the future with everything going on?
13:36Uh, I am.
13:38One thing I'm going to throw in real quick on energy prices is yes, oil's down, but I just looked at natural gas.
13:44It's at $5.25.
13:45That is up a lot from a year ago.
13:49And a lot of that's in response to this colder weather.
13:51So heating bills for a good part of the country going to take a bit of a hit.
13:56That shouldn't have been a surprise.
13:58You couldn't have been the only one that saw colder weather coming.
14:02I know I should have put my money where my mouth was.
14:05Bought some futures.
14:07Isaac, are you optimistic about the future?
14:10Uh, very much, very much.
14:11The future looks bright.
14:12Bob, how about you?
14:16Well, we didn't ask Don about the, uh, weather.
14:18When is this freezing cold weather going to be going to end?
14:21Yeah, when is it going to end?
14:22I'll be a lot more optimistic if we can see a break in the weather here.
14:26Yeah, it's going to be a long winter.
14:28Oh, no.
14:30I'm going back to Cabo.
14:32Yeah, that's smart, man.
14:33It is actually going to warm up a little bit mid to late next week, but, but, uh, we're in this for the long haul.
14:38Oh, okay.
14:38So when do you think this, when do you think, Don, the, uh, winter's going to break, finally?
14:44Hmm, March.
14:49I'm coming to Cabo with you, Bob.
14:51Yeah, we're coming.
14:54Okay.
14:54Uh, so you're optimistic about the future, Bob?
14:58I am.
14:59Good.
15:00So, so am I, but I think there is something we have to be aware of.
15:04Uh, besides some minor black swans that could occur, such as, uh, avian flu or African swine flu, uh, impacting, uh, the cost of, of protein.
15:17There is the issue that we've raised sometime before, and I hate to end things on a bad note, but we have, uh, terror cells already in our country that are financed and trained and recruited and are part of, well, basically they're from China, uh, the, uh, South American cartels and the jihadists.
15:43And that's the real risk that we have, that we can hit, be hit, which would, uh, our infrastructure could be hit, which that would be a black swan.
15:52Be that as it may, I am optimistic that we will get through all of this crap, and, uh, the United States is going to do very well.
16:02Uh, with that, have a great weekend, be well, stay safe, and God bless America.
16:13Uh, with that, have a great weekend, be well, stay safe, and God bless America.
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